The objective of this thesis is to examine cross-border contagion effects during the 2007-09 crisis in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) and from all the possible propagation channels, it chooses to focus on cross-border bank loans. It tries to discover which global and local factors had significant influence on the changes in bank loans from banks in source (lending) countries to banks, as well as households, corporations and government in host (borrowing) countries. The main research method is a panel data regression model. The empirical results suggest that both local and global factors had influence on the changes in cross-border loans, i.e. helped to spread the 2007-09 crisis to CEE. The significant local factors were macroeconomic and financial characteristics of both source and host countries, such as their GDP growth differential, interest rate differential, FDI, or profitability and health of the banking sector. The significant global factors were the expected market volatility and investors' risk appetite/aversion which was an indicator of "pure" contagion. The main contribution of this thesis lies in its focus on CEE and the analysis of investors' behavior based on their changing risk appetite.

The importance of international trade cannot be neglected as it represents an important channel of wealth creation in the actual globalised world. Thus, the present writer aims to identify how the commercial flows have changed after the adoption of Euro and once the financial crisis has burst. Furthermore the main factors that influence trade are researched by using the gravitational econometric model and employing panel data for 14 EU member countries. The results show that the intensity of commercial exchanges are highly influenced by the level of development (GDP) of the country and the amount of FDI that are attracted, while the use of a common currency appears to be not too significant. At the same time, indicators are more sensible during the crisis period than the stable one, hence even small changes in independent variables can lead to higher decrease in trade. Key words: European trade, liberalization, competitiveness, financial crisis, contagion, Euro, gravitational model.

This paper analyzes the causes of financial crises, and on this basis it proposes possible changes in financial regulation. Throughout the paper we work with a hypothesis that the major roots of financial distress are excess credit growth and substantial capital inflows. We test this hypothesis on a dataset comprising entries from Australia, Japan, the UK, and US over the approximate period 1970-2010. The results confirm that there is a consistent relation of credit development to financial crisis incidences and a somewhat less consistent effect of capital inflows. Furthermore, since we find a robust positive effect of past credit growth on the probability of a crisis occurrence, we propose a change in interest rate policy. Our suggestion implies a consideration of credit to GDP ratio during the execution of the monetary policy decisions on interest rates.

Charles University in Prague Faculty of Social Sciences Institute of Economic Studies MASTER THESIS Financial Stress Transmission from Developed to Emerging Countries Author: Bc. Nicolae Gavrilenco Supervisor: doc. Roman Horvàth, Ph.D. Academic Year: 2012/2013 Abstract In this research we have analyzed the financial system as it is today, describing the implications financial innovation had and the impact of the recent financial crisis. We tried to understand the nature of the financial stress and its measures. In the context of world financial integration it was also necessary to have a review upon the financial stress transmission channels from developed to emerging countries, determining the linkages and their measures. We employed a structural VAR model to determine whether there is empirical proof of financial Stress transmission from developed to emerging countries and see if financial integration represents the decisive factor in financial stress transmission. Our results suggest that there is a significant impact of financial stress in developed countries on the output of emerging ones. However we can observe an increasing influence of country-specific factors in explaining the variation in the rest of the variable of our model. The results also indicate the level of international financial...

The objective of this thesis is to examine the contagion in Central and Easter European countries, namely in Czech Republic, Hungary, and Poland. From all possible propagation channels, it chooses to focus on exchange rates. The method of coexceedance with consequent quantile regression is employed. We find that coexceedance does occur but not as frequently as assumed. The coexceedance occurs more frequently during the depreciation of the currencies. The persistence effect is very significant and the coexceedances are ``continual'' rather than ``correcting'' for previous extremes. We found evidence for both asset class effect and volatility effect. These effects have different impact during the 2008 Financial Crisis most of the times. An evidence for both Hungarian and Polish government bond yields having influence on the coexceedance with Czech Republic. Surprisingly, we did not find evidence for oil market influence on coexceedance.

v Abstract The aim of this thesis is to assess the effect of central bank communication on joint occurrence of extreme returns and on extreme movements shared by two stock markets. The research concentrates on the following aspects: predictability of increased share of countries experiencing extreme returns in the eurozone based on the nature of policymaker's statement and also a set of control variables, change in probability of extreme returns joint occurrence after president's speech, determinants of joint occurrence when non-standard measures were announced and finally, effect of crisis period. Additionally, determinants of shared extreme movements between particular countries are examined. The results suggest that communication nature or crisis are not significant predictors of extreme returns joint occurrence. Moreover, markets seem to react jointly to ECB president's speech only when they have extremely high returns. Furthermore, markets jointly react on days of nonstandard measures announcement differently. We also found that in the first quantile dovish statements tend to increase returns above their mean in case of Greece and Germany, and Greece and the UK. Rest of the pairs of countries have opposite reaction to dovish tone and communication is significant in the 95th quantile for the pair...

Master of Science / Department of Family Studies and Human Services / Farrell J. Webb / Farrell J. Webb / The purpose of this thesis was to examine how financial stressors influence family well-being. The specific thrust of this thesis was to examine if and how family well-being is influenced by financial stressors caused by the current economic crisis through an adaptation of Hills ABC-X Mosel (1949) known as the ABCE-WB Model. The ABC-X Model was adapted first by White (2007) who substituted the X—crisis element with the WB- well-being item. I added a new element to this model known as E—family expenditures. The data used in this thesis were gleaned from research conducted by Knowledge Networks on behalf of the National Center for Family and Marriage Research. The study was titled: Familial Responses to Financial Instability, How the Family Responds to Economic Pressure: A Comparative Study, 2009. In consisted of nationally representative a (multivariate) address the central hypotheses of this weighted a sample of 1,169 respondents. Analyses included simple correlations (bivariate) and hierarchical analyses investigation that explored what was the relation shop between the resources, perceptions, and expenditures a family had available to them in the current economic crisis and their well-being. The results indicate that approximately 22.4% of the variance in well-being could be explained by the elements in the ABCE-WB Model. In addition, there were several important relationships that were revealed between the predictors and the outcome measures individually. Overall, the efficacy and utility of the ABCE-WB Model was upheld by the results. Based on these findings future use of the ABCE-WB Model holds promise.

The purpose of this thesis is to conduct a comparative study in order to estimate the impact of the financial crisis to the GNI of Greece and Iceland. By applying synthetic control matching (a relatively new methodology) the study intends to compare the two countries, thus deducting conclusions about good or bad measures adopted. The results indicate that in both cases the adopted measures were not the optimal ones, since the synthetic counterfactual appear to perform better than the actual Greece and Iceland. Moreover, it is shown that Iceland reacted better to the shock it was exposed. However, different characteristics of the two countries impede the application of Icelandic actions in the Greek case.

Credit rating agencies (CRAs) play an integral part in today's financial markets. Through ratings they express considered opinion about future creditworthiness of an obligor and thus lower information asymmetry in the capital markets. Recently, CRAs have been brought in the spotlight as they are often blamed for being the triggers of the recent market turmoil. Critics often argue that ratings of tranches of structured finance instruments, backed by subprime mortgages, were unjustifiably high, downgrades were too late and the overall integrity of the rating process was compromised through numerous conflicts of interests CRAs face. However, in this thesis I argue that CRAs were put in this position rather through external factors than their own actions. Massive regulation usage of ratings, rapid growth of structured securities market, overdependence on the rating and the overall ignorance of the meaning of rating itself are the actual causes to blame.

This thesis analyzes the causes and impacts of recent financial crisis, which originated in the U. S. in 2007. It deals with the theoretical view and the specification of the financial crisis. A significant part is devoted to analyzing the root causes of the emergence of the recent financial crises. Here we find important implications in the functioning and structure of the financial system, in which we see many long-term unhealthy factors which largely contributed to the crisis. The paper also deals with analysis of the financial crisis on the real economy. It analyzes the impact of the crisis on the main macroeconomic indicators in the U. S. and Europe. Here we find an analysis of the measures taken in the U. S. and the EU in order to stabilize the financial sector. Find negative effects of state aid to public debt and government budget deficits.