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Over the centuries, the assessment of risk has become an integral part of the decision process. Assessment techniques have developed to meet different applications, but all have problems and none is entirely suited to the assessment of risks relating to fire. This dissertation examines the development of risk assessment processes and frameworks, identifying common features and problems and key differences in approach. Despite generically similar approaches, different applications have led to the development of many different paradigms, none of which appears to be entirely suitable for application to building and infrastructure fires. Current fire risk assessment methods which incorporate important advances in fire modelling and Monte Carlo simulation, rely on a fire engineering approach. They tend to consider only the limited range of fire safety systems that are directly involved in construction, failing to address many of the procedural and other activities that can overwhelm traditional controls, and taking insufficient account of interactions between different controls and the factors that influence them. Further, comparative risk levels are generally evaluated against the ill-defined scenario of current practice, as defined in outdated prescriptive regulations. The result is that catastrophic consequences continue to occur, despite the presence of traditionally accepted controls. The problem is to find a framework that evaluates the sensitivity of levels of risk in fire against a defined, uncontrolled state, taking into account the effects of a comprehensive range of factors and controls. A new approach to risk assessment that addresses a comprehensive set of factors and controls and evaluates the event without, and with, controls, is considered. The framework, together with the steps for its implementation, appears to provide a versatile and flexible method of risk assessment. It is likely that the framework can be applied to all risk assessment situations. A study is undertaken to investigate the impact of factors and interactions that are not commonly taken into account in fire risk assessment. The chosen situation is a fire in the driver???s cab of a train. Current driver procedures are examined, and fire growth rates for specified materials are considered. Using the fire spread model CFAST, conditions in the cab for a range of ventilation conditions and fire growth rates are calculated. Threshold levels that determine response times for engineered and human controls and tenability, and common factors that influence consequences, can play a critical role in modelling the decision process. A driver???s decision model is proposed that determines the impact of the driver???s decisions to adjust ventilation by opening or closing windows and doors, and to extinguish the fire. The model takes into account time to respond and time to perform the necessary activities. The study shows that, even with a limited choice of actions, the decisions of the driver can have a critical effect on the outcome of a fire in the driver???s cab, altering the situation from a controlled to an uncontrolled state. Recommendations are made for further development of the new risk assessment framework, and for the development of fire modelling for risk assessment purposes. Finally, recommendations are made for the continuation of the development of the train driver response model that would result in the generation of driver decision support software.

Thesis (M.Phil.)--Murdoch University, 2004. / Thesis submitted to the Division of Science & Engineering. Accompanying CD-ROM contains Appendices 1-12 (leaves 198-298). Bibliography: leaves 184-195.

Thesis (M.App.Sc.) - Carleton University, 2006. / Includes bibliographical references (p. 101-103). Also available in electronic format on the Internet.

Thesis (M.E.F.E.)--University of Canterbury, 2008. / Typescript (photocopy). Includes bibliographical references (p. 197-202). Also available via the World Wide Web.

Thesis (M.S. in natural resource sciences)--Washington State University, August 2009. / Title from PDF title page (viewed on Sept. 21, 2009). "Department of Natural Resource Sciences." Includes bibliographical references (p. 42-44).

Thesis (M.S.)--University of Nevada, Reno, 2008. / "December, 2008." Includes bibliographical references (leaves 139-141). Online version available on the World Wide Web.

This paper attempts to provide experimental evidence on fire prevention and risk aversion among urban informal settlers using lottery choice data with real monetary prizes. The paper estimates the risk attitudes of a sample of 174 individuals from an informal housing development in Cape Town. The empirical analysis is performed within the expected utility theory specification, assuming constant relative risk aversion (CRRA) defined over the lottery prize. We tests the hypothesis that risk averse individuals will take precautionary measures in as far as possible to mitigate the risk of fire to their household. We find that individual-level fire prevention measures that are within the means of the households to effect, such as making sure that matches, lighters and paraffin are kept out of reach of children, is correlated with risk aversion, but measures, such as building of homes at least 3-5 meters from the neighbours, does not seem to be within the choice set of low-income informal dwellers. Our results further indicate that subjects who engage in fire prevention/fire safety strategies that require the "most effort" (that are most effective and costly) are significantly more risk averse relative to subjects engaging in fire safety measures that need "least effort". Contrary to expectation, distance from the main road, informal electricity connection, and the use of paraffin for lighting, heating and cooking are not correlated with risk aversion, indicating that irrespective of the risk profiles of decision makers, low-income households are often forced to make choices that increase their exposure to fire hazards.

Three training procedures (Rehearsal Plus, Elaborative and Behavioral) were examined to ascertain their effectiveness in the acquisition and maintenance of fire emergency skills, fear reduction of fears associated with being in fires, and knowledge attainment. These three trained groups were compared to an untrained group. The subjects were 52 randomly assigned second- and third-grade children. They were assessed before, immediatedly following, and 3 months after training. Significant behavioral performance gains were evident at posttesting for the experimental groups but not the control. However, at follow-up, the Rehearsal Plus and the elaborative groups performance exceeded that of the Control group. Furthermore, Rehearsal Plus and Elaborative strategies led to different types of knowledge attainment. The results indicate the value of Rehearsal Plus and Elaborative strategies in enhancing acquisition and maintenance of behavioral skills and different types of knowledge attainment. / M.S.

An experimental investigation has been completed which studied the breaking of window glass by fire. The experiments were carried out in a specially designed compartment to achieve two-layer flows characteristic of normal building fires. The experimental data was collected from two test groups: the first for windows with their edges insulated from the fire (edge-protected) and the second for windows uniformly heated by the fire (edge-unprotected). The results of the edge-protected window tests indicated that the glass breakage was caused by a critical temperature difference between the central heated portion of the pane and the glass edge. The experimental work showed the critical value to be approximately 90C. After the material properties of the glass were determined, the theoretical findings of Keski-Rahkonen were used to obtain a value of 70C; the difference attributed to radiative heating. The test results also demonstrated a distinctive loss of integrity by the windows. When breakage occurred, the cracks spread throughout the glass, joined together and caused at least partial collapse of the pane. The results from the edge-unprotected window tests were quite different. There were relatively few cracks developed and almost no propagation across the glass. Consequently, there was no window collapse in any of these cases. The breakage did initiate at a consistent glass temperature value, however, the mechanism for these tests is not known. / Master of Science