No description available.

NO ENGLISH ABSTRACT.

[pt] Na literatura é quase unânime a rejeição da relação de paridade descoberta das taxas de juros (PDJ). Isto significa que existiriam retornos excessivos previsíveis para a especulação cambial. Esta dissertação documenta os retornos das taxas de juros em regimes de câmbio controlado em diversos episódios. As evidências apontam que esses regimes terminam não só com abrutas depreciações, mas também que essas depreciações, na grande maioria dos casos, superam o diferencial de juros acumulados desde o início do regime. Ou seja, nesses casos não haveriam retornos excessivos como indicado pelos testes usuais da PDJ. Identificamos as variáveis que prevêm a magnitude da variação cambial ocorrida após a flexibilização do regime cambial. Em seguida, analisamos o retorno da estratégia de carry trade por tipo de regime cambial concluindo que nos regimes de câmbio controlado o retorno esperado é maior mas o downside risk também. / [en] The failure of uncovered interest rate parity is almost unanimous in the literature. The consequence is the existence of predictable excess returns to currency speculation. This paper documents the returns to the carry trade strategy in fixed exchange rate regimes in a set of episodes. Empirical documentation shows not only that these regimes end in abrupt depreciation but also that the depreciation generally wipes out the entire accumulated interest rate differential during all the period. This anecdotal evidence contrasts to that commonly found by uncovered interest parity tests. We identify the leading indicators to the currency crises magnitudes. We also analyze the differences in returns to the carry trade strategy by currency regimes founding that both the expected return and the downside risks are greater in fixed currency regimes.

The thesis evaluates the effect of Czech National Bank's exchange rate commit- ment on Czech sectoral exports. Thus, we show how unconventional monetary policies could affect the exports. To assess the impact of interventions, we use Synthetic Control Method. The method constructs synthetic Czech exports from data of comparable countries that were not under the policy of inter- est and compares them to observed Czech exports following the interventions. We expect a positive effect of Czech National Bank's commitment on Czech exports, because the interventions resulted in the undervaluation of koruna causing a higher demand for Czech goods abroad. Additionally, the exporters should benefit from reduced uncertainty caused by no exchange rate volatility with the euro area. The results showed a positive impact of interventions only in half of the export sectors. The positive effect of a stable exchange rate is not confirmed, because the effect on the euro area countries in some categories was smaller than for the other countries. The results for total sectoral exports were stable across model specifications and confirmed by analysis of Czech bi- lateral sectoral exports to the largest destinations. The significant contribution of this thesis is application of Synthetic Control Method on total sectoral...

Magistro baigiamajame darbe išskirti pagrindiniai fiksuoto valiutos kurso privalumai ir trūkumai, nustatyta jų įtaka Lietuvos ekonomikai bei įvertinta ar Lietuvai yra naudinga bendra valiuta su euro zonos šalimis. Pirmoje darbo dalyje išskiriami pagrindinių valiutos kurso režimų privalumai ir trūkumai, apžvelgiama Lietuvos pinigų politikos raida ir optimalios valiutos zonos teorija. Antroje dalyje remiantis pirmoje dalyje išskirtais fiksuoto valiutos kurso privalumais ir trūkumais analizuojama kaip jie veikė infliaciją, investicijas, užsienio prekybą, einamosios sąskaitos balansą, ar nebuvo grėsmės devalvacijai, ar ECB vykdoma pinigų politika buvo palanki. Trečioje darbo dalyje remiantis optimalios valiutos zonos kriterijais analizuojama ar Lietuva yra OVZ su EU (17) ir ar bendra valiuta – euras būtų naudingas. / In the Master‘s thesis main advantages and disadvantages of Fixed Exchange Rate were distinguished, analyzed their impact on Lithuania‘s economy and evaluated whether a common currency with the euro-zone countries would be useful. In the first part of the paper the main Exchange Rate Regime advantages and disadvantages were identified, main developments of Lithuania’s monetary policy and optimum currency area were overviewed. The impact of fixed exchange rate advantages and disadvantages on indicators such as inflation, foreign direct investment, foreign trade, current account balance were analyzed in the second part of the paper including the analyses of litas devaluation possibility and ECB monetary policy. The third part of the paper aims at assessing whether Lithuania and EU (17) is an OCA and whether a common currency – euro is beneficial.

Bretton Woods system has never been a main topic of Czech economic literature even though it strongly influenced finance of the most developed countries between 1944 and 1971 (1973). This diploma thesis is an attempt to analyze this important historical phenomena in international finance and the last metal oriented system in the history. The first chapter brings the most important terms and definitions that are necessary for better understanding of this problem. It is followed by chapters analysing international finance development in this area starting with the interwar period, followed by creation of Bretton Woods Monetary System in 1944 and first very successful and hopeful years that finally came to an end with accumulation of more problems that put a strain on the system such as for instance creation of long term dollar deficits by United States. This paper also analyzes the most important problems, finds similarities between Bretton Woods System and European Monetary System and tries to answer a question if this system or any monetary system like that can be successful on a long term basis.

The purpose of this Master's thesis is divided into two steps. The first step sums up all the relevant theory about financial crises and monetary policies. The second step analyzes not only the past but focuses mainly on the global financial crisis which started in 2007. The cornerstones of this analytical bloc are monetary policies of central banks in China, Venezuela, Denmark and the Czech Republic. Two hypotheses are stated in the beginning of this Master's thesis. These focus on fixed exchange rate regimes and foreign exchange reserves. The analytical part of Master's thesis tries to prove whether these hypotheses can be marked as valid or invalid.

En dépit du renforcement de leur ouverture commerciale, le commerce extérieur des pays du Mashrek a presque toujours affiché des chiffres plutôt négatifs. Selon la littérature, l'ouverture commerciale est une des conditions permettant une croissance vigoureuse d'un pays. Néanmoins, la tendance constatée à la lumière des données du commerce de ces pays, traduirait une réalité alarmante. L'ouverture ne s'est pas traduite par une accélération des niveaux des investissements, ni par une création d'emplois. Est-ce que les politiques commerciales et de change menées par les pays du Mashrek sont responsables de cette persistance des déficits commerciaux ? Motivée par l’aggravation remarquable du solde de la balance commerciale libanaise survenue dans le profil global des échanges extérieurs du Liban, la présente recherche examine le comportement dynamique des exportations et importations libanaises en comparaison avec ses pays voisins (la Syrie, l’Egypte et la Jordanie) dans un contexte économique régional et international en mutation, en proposant une analyse empirique des déterminants des flux commerciaux ayant pour objet d’établir dans quelle mesure la politique commerciale et de change seraient responsables des faits stylisés observés. / Despite the strengthening of their commercial openness, the Mashreq countries trade has rather always displayed negative results. According to the literature, opening up trade is one of the conditions leading to any country’s vigorous growth. Nevertheless, the trend found in the light of these countries’ trade data, indicates an alarming reality. The openness was neither translated into accelerated levels of investments nor created new job opportunities. Are the trade and exchange rate policies pursued by the Mashreq countries responsible for this persistence in trade deficits ? Motivated by outstanding worsening deflection of the trade balance in the overall Lebanese external trade profile, the current research examines the dynamic behavior of the Lebanese exports and imports compared to its neighboring countries (Syria, Egypt, and Jordan) in a regional and international changing economic context. An empirical analysis of the trade flows determinants was adopted in order to establish to what extent the trade and Exchange policies would be responsible for the observed stylized facts.

Kadangi neigiami šalies mokėjimų balanso rodikliai gali būti būsimo šalies ekonominio nuosmukio ar krizės priežastis, todėl būtina suvokti, kokia šių rodiklių įtaka šalies daromiems sprendimams bei nustatyti, ar šių rodiklių pagalba galima prognozuoti būsimas šalies valiutų krizes, kitaip dar vadinamas mokėjimų balanso krizėmis. Atsižvelgiant į tai, magistro baigiamajame darbe analizuojama mokėjimų balanso krizės situacija bei jos pasireiškimo tikimybė Lietuvoje. Atliktas tyrimas aktualus, nes mokslinėje literatūroje Lietuvos mokėjimų balanso krizės susidarymo rizikos analizės per pastaruosius metus nepasitaikė. Ypač Lietuvai tai aktualu dėl pastarųjų metų pasaulinių įvykių, nulėmusių Lietuvos ekonomikos smarkų smukimą. Taip pat pažymėtina, kad užsienio šalyse vis daugėja atvejų, kai šalis dėl išeikvotų užsienio valiutos rezervų patiria mokėjimų balanso krizę, priverčiančią šalį imtis drastiškų veiksmų siekiant išgelbėti šalies ekonomiką. Atsižvelgiant į aukščiau minėtą, iškeliama mokslinė darbo problema klausimu „Ar galima prognozuoti apie Lietuvos mokėjimų balanso krizės reiškinį remiantis mokėjimų balanso sąskaitų pokyčiais bei pagrindiniais makroekonominiai rodikliais, įtakojančiais mokėjimų balanso sąskaitas?“ Darbo tikslas – atlikti Lietuvos mokėjimų balanso krizės rizikos analizę ir ištirti, pagal kuriuos šalies ekonominius ir statistinius rodiklius galima prognozuoti šį reiškinį. Tyrimo objektas – Lietuvos, Latvijos ir Estijos detalūs statistiniai mokėjimų balanso... [toliau žr. visą tekstą] / As the country's negative balance of payments indicators may signal the country's future economic downturn or causes of the crisis, it is necessary to understand how these variables influence country’s decisions and determine whether these characteristics can help predict future currency crises in the country, also known as the balance of payments crisis. The paper of master degree analyzes the balance of payments crisis situation and its likelihood of occurring in Lithuania. A study carried out is relevant because the scientific literature does not provide any analysis regarding the Lithuanian balance of payments crisis over the past few years. It is especially relevant in Lithuania as the worldwide events in the recent years have led to a rapid decline of the Lithuanian economy. It should also be noted that there is a growing number of cases of foreign countries experiencing balance of payments crisis, subjecting the country to take drastic action to save the country's economy. According to the above mentioned, the problem is formulated: "Is it possible to predict the Lithuanian balance of payments crisis phenomenon on the basis of balance of payments accounts, and key developments in macroeconomic indicators, influencing the balance of payments accounts?" The main goal is to analyze the Lithuanian balance of payments crisis risk and determine which country's economic and statistical indicators can predict this phenomenon. The object of the research - the detailed... [to full text]

The thesis deals with the exchange rate policy of the People's Republic of China. The objective is to evaluate the effect of exchange rate policy on the current account balance and the monetary policy. The theoretical part of the thesis outlines basic concepts of the foreign exchange market and relevant theories. The following section deals with the evolution of exchange rate policies. The final part is devoted to the analysis of influence of renminbi exchange rate on current account deficit and monetary policy. When assessing the impacts of renminbi exchange rate on monetary policy, open market operations and reserve requirements of banks can be considered as a vital tool of monetary policy of China. The central bank employs interest rate adjustments as a secondary instrument of the Chinese monetary policy.