Thesis (Ph.D.)--Montana State University--Bozeman, 2007. / Typescript. Chairperson, Graduate Committee: Richard Canfield. Includes bibliographical references (leaves 83-88).

Yes / A workshop was recently held at Nagoya University (31 October – 02 November 2017), sponsored by the Center for International Collaborative Research, at the Institute for Space-Earth Environmental Research, Nagoya University, Japan, to quantitatively compare the performance of today’s operational solar flare forecasting facilities. Building upon Paper I of this series (Barnes et al. 2016), in Paper II (Leka et al. 2019) we described the participating methods for this latest comparison effort, the evaluation methodology, and presented quantitative comparisons. In this paper we focus on the behavior and performance of the methods when evaluated in the context of broad implementation differences. Acknowledging the short testing interval available and the small number of methods available, we do find that forecast performance: 1) appears to improve by including persistence or prior flare activity, region evolution, and a human “forecaster in the loop”; 2) is hurt by restricting data to disk-center observations; 3) may benefit from long-term statistics, but mostly when then combined with modern data sources and statistical approaches. These trends are arguably weak and must be viewed with numerous caveats, as discussed both here and in Paper II. Following this present work, we present in Paper IV a novel analysis method to evaluate temporal patterns of forecasting errors of both types (i.e., misses and false alarms; Park et al. 2019). Hence, most importantly, with this series of papers we demonstrate the techniques for facilitating comparisons in the interest of establishing performance-positive methodologies.

No / The acceleration of electrons and protons caused by a super-Dreicer electric field directed along the longitudinal component By of the magnetic field is investigated. The three-component magnetic field in a nonneutral current sheet occurring at the top of the reconnecting flaring loops on the charged particle trajectories and energies is considered. Particle trajectories in the reconnecting current sheet (RCS) and their energy spectra at the point of ejection from the RCS are simulated from the motion equation for different sheet thicknesses. A super-Dreicer electric field of the current sheet is found to accelerate particles to coherent energy spectra in a range of 10-100 keV for electrons and 100-400 keV for protons with energy slightly increasing with the sheet thickness. A longitudinal By component was found to define the gyration directions of particles with opposite charges toward the RCS midplane, i.e., the trajectory symmetry. For the ratio By/Bz < 10-6 the trajectories are fully symmetric, which results in particle ejection from an RCS as neutral beams. For the ratio By/Bz > 10-2 the trajectories completely lose their symmetry toward the RCS midplane, leading to the separation of particles with opposite charges into the opposite halves from an RCS midplane and the following ejection into different legs of the reconnecting loops. For the intermediate values of By/Bz the trajectories are partially symmetric toward the midplane, leading to electrons prevailing in one leg and protons in the other.

Yes / Solar flares produce radiation which can have an almost immediate effect on the near-Earth environ- ment, making it crucial to forecast flares in order to mitigate their negative effects. The number of published approaches to flare forecasting using photospheric magnetic field observations has prolifer- ated, with varying claims about how well each works. Because of the different analysis techniques and data sets used, it is essentially impossible to compare the results from the literature. This problem is exacerbated by the low event rates of large solar flares. The challenges of forecasting rare events have long been recognized in the meteorology community, but have yet to be fully acknowledged by the space weather community. During the interagency workshop on “all clear” forecasts held in Boulder, CO in 2009, the performance of a number of existing algorithms was compared on common data sets, specifically line-of-sight magnetic field and continuum intensity images from MDI, with consistent definitions of what constitutes an event. We demonstrate the importance of making such systematic comparisons, and of using standard verification statistics to determine what constitutes a good prediction scheme. When a comparison was made in this fashion, no one method clearly outperformed all others, which may in part be due to the strong correlations among the parameters used by different methods to characterize an active region. For M-class flares and above, the set of methods tends towards a weakly positive skill score (as measured with several distinct metrics), with no participating method proving substantially better than climatological forecasts. / This work is the outcome of many collaborative and cooperative efforts. The 2009 “Forecasting the All-Clear” Workshop in Boulder, CO was sponsored by NASA/Johnson Space Flight Center’s Space Radiation Analysis Group, the National Center for Atmospheric Research, and the NOAA/Space Weather Prediction Center, with additional travel support for participating scientists from NASA LWS TRT NNH09CE72C to NWRA. The authors thank the participants of that workshop, in particular Drs. Neal Zapp, Dan Fry, Doug Biesecker, for the informative discussions during those three crazy days, and NCAR’s Susan Baltuch and NWRA’s Janet Biggs for organizational prowess. Workshop preparation and analysis support was provided for GB, KDL by NASA LWS TRT NNH09CE72C, and NASA Heliophysics GI NNH12CG10C. PAH and DSB received funding from the European Space Agency PRODEX Programme, while DSB and MKG also received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and in- novation programme under grant agreement No. 640216 (FLARECAST project). MKG also acknowledges research performed under the A-EFFort project and subsequent service implementation, supported under ESA Contract number 4000111994/14/D/MPR. YY was supported by the National Science Foundation under grants ATM 09-36665, ATM 07-16950, ATM-0745744 and by NASA under grants NNX0-7AH78G, NNXO-8AQ90G. YY owes his deepest gratitude to his advisers Prof. Frank Y. Shih, Prof. Haimin Wang and Prof. Ju Jing for long discussions, for reading previous drafts of his work and providing many valuable comments that improved the presentation and contents of this work. JMA was supported by NSF Career Grant AGS-1255024 and by a NMSU Vice President for Research Interdisciplinary Research Grant.

Yes / Solar flares are extremely energetic phenomena in our Solar System. Their impulsive, often drastic radiative increases, in particular at short wavelengths, bring immediate impacts that motivate solar physics and space weather research to understand solar flares to the point of being able to forecast them. As data and algorithms improve dramatically, questions must be asked concerning how well the forecasting performs; crucially, we must ask how to rigorously measure performance in order to critically gauge any improvements. Building upon earlier-developed methodology (Barnes et al. 2016, Paper I), international representatives of regional warning centers and research facilities assembled in 2017 at the Institute for Space-Earth Environmental Research, Nagoya University, Japan to – for the first time – directly compare the performance of operational solar flare forecasting methods. Multiple quantitative evaluation metrics are employed, with focus and discussion on evaluation methodologies given the restrictions of operational forecasting. Numerous methods performed consistently above the “no skill” level, although which method scored top marks is decisively a function of flare event definition and the metric used; there was no single winner. Following in this paper series we ask why the performances differ by examining implementation details (Leka et al. 2019, Paper III), and then we present a novel analysis method to evaluate temporal patterns of forecasting errors in (Park et al. 2019, Paper IV). With these works, this team presents a well-defined and robust methodology for evaluating solar flare forecasting methods in both research and operational frameworks, and today’s performance benchmarks against which improvements and new methods may be compared.

The topic of this thesis is a detailed investigation of different aspects of the particle acceleration mechanisms operating in Collapsing Magnetic Traps (CMTs), which have been suggested as one possible mechanism for particle acceleration during solar flares. The acceleration processes in CMTs are investigated using guiding centre test particle calculations. Results including terms of different orders in the guiding centre approximation are compared to help identify which of the terms are important for the acceleration of particles. For a basic 2D CMT model the effects of different initial conditions (position, kinetic energy and pitch angle) of particles are investigated in detail. The main result is that the particles that gain most energy are those with initial pitch angles close to 90° and start in weak field regions in the centre of the CMT. The dominant acceleration mechanism for these particles is betatron acceleration, but other particles also show signatures of Fermi acceleration. The basic CMT model is then extended by (a) including a magnetic field component in the invariant direction and (b) by making it asymmetric. It is found that the addition of a guide field does not change the characteristics of particle acceleration very much, but for the asymmetric models the associated energy gain is found to be much smaller than in symmetric models, because the particles can no longer remain very close to the trap centre throughout their orbit. The test particle method is then also applied to a CMT model from the literature which contains a magnetic X-line and open and closed field lines and the results are compared with the previous results and the findings in the literature. Finally, the theoretical framework of CMT models is extended to 2.5D models with shear flow and to fully 3D models, allowing the construction of more realistic CMT models in the future.

The results of a statistical study of hard x-ray solar flares are presented in this dissertation. Two methods of analysis were used, the Diffusion Entropy (DE) method coupled with an analysis of the data distributions and the Rescaled Range (R/S) Method, sometimes referred to as "Hurst's method". Chapter one provides an introduction to hard x-ray flares within the context of the solar environment and a summary of the statistical paradigms solar astronomers currently work under. Chapter two presents the theory behind the DE and R/S methods. Chapter three presents the results of the two analysis methodologies: most notably important evidence of the conflicting results of the R/S and DE methods, evidence of a Levy statistical signature for the underlying dynamics of the hard x-ray flaring process and a possible separate memory signature for the waiting times. In addition, the stationary and nonstationary characteristics of the waiting times and peak intensities, are revealed. Chapter four provides a concise summary and discussion of the results.

Solar flares are common and strong demonstrations of solar activity. They are observable throughout the whole electromagnetic spectrum. If they show a broadband emission in the visible continuum, then we speak of white-light flares. The origin of white-light flares is not fully understood. We detected 24 white-light flares in SDO/HMI data and analyzed them using SDO/AIA wavelength bands at 1 700 ̊A and 304 ̊A and GONG Hα observations. According to our work, the emission in the 1 700 ̊A band is similar to the white-light emission but usually starts sooner. The positions of intensity enhancements in the 1 700 ̊A band are similar to the positions of the white-light flares and are connected by ribbons visible in the 304 ̊A band and in the Hα line. Then we studied the decay time of white-light flares and found that for most of the white-light flare points the typical decay time ranges in 2 - 3 min. 1

In this paper we analyze the small C1.5 class solar flare observed on June 30th 2013 by the Swedish Solar Telescope. The evolution of asym- metries in the Hα line profile of the solar flare was studied where it could be seen how the number of red asymmetric regions had a maximum value near the beginning of the flare and then decreases rapidly in the first 4 minutes of the observations. This could be interpreted as a correlation with the HXR and microwave emissions of the impulsive phase of the flare as these emissions also typically have a similar rapid increase and decrease of emission intensity.

Industrial flaring can have negative impacts on regional air quality and recent studies have shown that flares are often operated at low combustion efficiency, which exacerbates these air quality impacts. This thesis examines industrial flaring with the objectives of (1) assessing the air quality impacts of flares operating at a variety of conditions, (2) examining the extent to which improvements in flare operations could reduce emissions, (3) identifying opportunities for recycling flared gases in fuel gas networks, and (4) identifying opportunities for reducing the generation of flared gases, using the improved control of catalytic cracking operations as a case study. The work presented in this thesis demonstrates that flares operating at low combustion efficiency can increase localized ambient ozone concentrations by more than 15 ppb under some conditions. The impact of flares on air quality depends most strongly on combustion efficiency, the flow rates to the flares and the chemical composition (photochemical reactivity) of the emissions. Products of incomplete combustion and nitrogen oxides emissions from flaring generally had a smaller impact on air quality than unburned flare gases. The combustion efficiency at which a flare can operate can be constrained by the flare’s design. In a case study of an air-assisted flare, it was demonstrated that choices in blower configurations could lead to emissions that were orders of magnitude greater or less than those predicted using an assumed combustion efficiency of 98%. Designing flares with air-assist rates that can be finely tuned can significantly reduce emissions. Similarly, flaring can be reduced by integrating sources of waste gases into fuel gas networks. Analyses for a petroleum refinery indicated that this integration can often be accomplished with little net cost by expanding boiler capacities. Finally, flared gases can be reduced at their source. A case study of a fluid catalytic cracking indicated that using better temperature control could significantly minimize flared gases. / text