Thesis (Ph. D. - Hydrology and Water Resources Administration)--University of Arizona, 1986. / Bibliography: leaves 146-151.

system model and computational methodology have been developed which evaluate the worth of flood forecast - response systems in reducing the economic damage caused by floods. The efficiencies of the forecast system, the response system, and the overall system may be individually obtained and compared. In this report the case study of Milton, Pennsylvania, was extended and further case studies were performed including a large residential section of Victoria, Texas, and all the residences in Columbus, Mississippi. These locations show better forecast and response efficiencies than obtained for Milton, Pennsylvania. The difference is attributed to longer forecast lead times at Columbus and Victoria. Sensitivity analyses were run at all three locations. These show the effects of many system factors, such as the time required to produce, disseminate and respond to a forecast, on the efficiency of the system. The forecast efficiency improves significantly as these times are reduced. Further analysis of the response system based on human factors involved has led to the development of a simulation model of the process by which the floodplain dweller determines the appropriate response to a flood warning. Investigation of ways to extend the methodology to evaluate regions lacking the detailed data used for the case studies has indicated more problems than answers. Extrapolation based on overall system efficiency related to published regional and national flood damage estimates was used to provide an approximate value of the flood forecast - response system for two regions and for the nation.A listing of simplicities and approximations which make computations tractable but which may affect accuracy is given. Finally, an evaluation of the work accomplished for this project and suggestions for the constructive use of the flood forecast -response system model and computational procedures is given.

A major area targeted for hydrometeorological forecast service improvements is in flash flood forecasting. Verification data show that general public service products of flash flood forecasts do not provide enough lead time in order for the public to make effective response. Sophisticated users of flash flood forecasts could use forecast probabilities of flash flooding in order to make decisions in preparation for the predicted event. To this end, a systematic probabilistic approach to flash flood forecasting is presented. The work first describes a deterministic system which serves as a conceptual basis for the probability system. The approach uses accumulated rainfall plus potential rainfall over a specified area and time period, and assesses this amount against the water holding capacity of the affected basin. These parameters are modeled as random variables in the probabilistic approach. The effects of uncertain measurements of rainfall and forecasts of precipitation from multiple information sources within a time period and moving forward in time are resolved through the use of Bayes' Theorem. The effect of uncertain inflows and outflows of atmospheric moisture on the states of the system, the transformation of variables, is resolved by use of convolution. Requirements for probability distributions to satisfy Bayes' Theorem are discussed in terms of the types and physical basis of meteorological data needed. The feasibility of obtaining the data is evaluated. Two alternatives for calculating the soil moisture deficit are presented--one, an online automatic rainfall/runoff model, the other an approximation. Using the soil moisture approximation, a software program was developed to test the probabilistic approach. A storm event was simulated and compared against an actual flash flood event. Results of the simulation improved forecast lead time by 3-5 hours over the actual forecasts issued at the time of the event.

No description available.

Thesis (M.S.)--Oregon State University, 1982. / Map folded in pocket. Typescript (photocopy). Includes bibliographical references (leaves 61-65). Also available on the World Wide Web.

Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of Arizona, 1992. / Includes bibliographical references.

Thesis (Ph.D.)--Tufts University, 2002. / Adviser: Richard M. Vogel. Submitted to the Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering. Includes bibliographical references (leaves 95-105). Access restricted to members of the Tufts University community. Also available via the World Wide Web;

Thesis (M.S. - Hydrology and Water Resources)--University of Arizona. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 57-59).

Thesis (M. Env. St.)--University of Adelaide, Dept. of Civil Engineering, 1993. / Includes bibliographical references.

Thesis (M.S.)--University of Delaware, 2007. / Principal faculty advisor: Daniel J. Leathers, Dept. of Geography. Includes bibliographical references.