Flash floods caused by localized thunderstorms are a natural hazard of the semi-arid Southwest, and many communities have responded by installing ALERT flood forecasting systems. This study explored a rainfall-runoff modeling approach thought to be appropriate for forecasting in such watersheds. The kinematic model KINEROS was evaluated because it is a distributed model developed specifically for desert regions, and can be applied to basins without historic data. This study examined the accuracy of KINEROS under data constraints that are typical of semi-arid ALERT watersheds. The model was validated at the 150 km², semi-arid Walnut Gulch experimental watershed. Under the conditions examined, KINEROS provided poor simulations of runoff volume and peak flow, but good simulations of time to peak. For peak flows, the standard error of estimate was nearly 100% of the observed mean. Surprisingly, when model parameters were based only on measurable watershed properties, simulated peak flows were as accurate as when parameters were calibrated on some historic data. The accuracy of KINEROS was compared to that of the SCS model. When calibrated, a distributed SCS model with a simple channel loss component was as accurate as KINEROS. Reasons for poor simulations were investigated by examining a) rainfall sampling errors, b) model sensitivity and dynamics, and c) trends in simulation accuracy. The cause of poor simulations was divided between rainfall sampling errors and other problems. It was found that when raingage densities are on the order of 1/20 km², rainfall sampling errors preclude the consistent and reliable simulation of runoff from localized thunderstorms. Even when rainfall errors were minimized, accuracy of simulations were still poor. Good results, however, have been obtained with KINEROS on small watersheds; the problem is not KINEROS itself but its application at larger scales. The study also examined the hydrology of thunderstorm-generated floods at Walnut Gulch. The space-time dynamics of rainfall and runoff were characterized and found to be of fundamental importance. Hillslope infiltration was found to exert a dominant control on runoff, although flow hydraulics, channel losses, and initial soil moisture are also important. Watershed response was found to be nonlinear.

A combination of geological and hydraulic techniques represents the most sensible approach to flood hazard analysis on alluvial fans. Hydraulic models efficiently yield predictions of flood depths and velocities, but the assumptions on which the models are based do not lead to accurate portrayals of natural fan processes. Geomorphological mapping, facies, mapping, and hydraulic reconstructions of past floods provide data on the location, types, and magnitude of flood hazards, respectively. Geological reconstructions of past floods should be compared with the results of hydraulic modeling before, potentially unsound, floodplain management decisions are implemented. The controversial Federal Emergency Management Agency procedure for delineating flood-hazard zones underestimated the extent, velocity, and depth of flow during recent floods on two alluvial fans by over 100, 25, and 70 percent, respectively. Flow on the alluvial fans occurs in one or more discontinuous ephemeral stream systems characterized by alternating sheetflood zones and channelized reaches. The importance of sheetflooding is greater on fans closer to the mountain front and with unstable channel banks. Channel diversions on five alluvial fans repeatedly occurred along low channel banks and bends where the greatest amount of overland flow is generated. Channel migration occurs through stream capture whereby overland flow from the main channel accelerates and directs erosion of adjacent secondary channels. The recurrence interval of major channel shifts is greater than 100 years, but minor changes occurred on all five fans during this century. Small aggrading flows are important, because they decrease bank heights and alter the location of greatest overland flow during subsequent floods. The results of this study demonstrate that (1) geological reconstructions of past floods can check the results of hydraulic models, (2) the character of flooding on alluvial fans can vary significantly in the same tectonic and climatic setting due to differences in drainage-basin characteristics, and (3) flood-hazard assessments on alluvial fans must be updated after each flood, because the location and timing of channel diversions can be affected by small floods.