The purpose of this research is to analyze the impact that a sample of securities blended together would have upon the variance of the expected returns of an energy and a gold-minerals portfolio. A framework based on the Markowitz model, but solved linearly, has been constructed in which the optimal weight of each security in its respective portfolio is determined in order to minimize variance given the expected portfolio returns. The data elaborated for each stock (price, return and dividend) were on an annual basis for a period of 16 years and are the basis from which the projections of both the energy and the gold-minerals portfolio expected returns were derived. The results show that the variance in both portfolios is considerable, because stocks as a group show co-movement, meaning that stocks tend to do well or poorly as a group.

The strained commodity price environment has triggered strong measures of cost containment and control by global and South African mining industries with workforce reductions, mine closures and shelved projects. Added to this, the South African mining industry is facing an unparalleled number of challenges, including an uncertain regulatory environment, infrastructure constraints, frequent industrial actions, rising costs and shortages of skills. The dynamism of discontinuous change has increased considerably and the South African mining industry is today facing an uncertain future with a blurred outlook. The results of the detailed analysis of future studies theory and practice in this research study support the argument that there is a strong need to fundamentally change the ways of planning for the future of the South African mining industry. The practice of developing new insight through the application of futures studies is central to this process. Today, collective decisions and strategies are progressively more founded on and informed by futures studies. The research study sought to develop insight regarding the future of the South African mining industry through the construction of four scenarios towards 2055: Divided We Fall, where a confident industry is threatened by social divisions as industry transformation is disregarded; Rock Bottom, where weak global economic conditions coincide with lacklustre industry innovation; Rising from Ashes, with similar economic conditions, but the industry responding positively through accelerated industry innovation; and Renaissance, set against positive global economic conditions with the South African mining industry adopting a collaborative, innovative approach to industry transformation. The research study further strived to uncover the preferred future for the South African mining industry as basis for the South African Mine of the Future Vision towards 2055. Throughout the research study, Inayatullah’s pillars of futures studies were applied as a guideline in mapping the present and future, deepening the future, broadening the future through the development of scenarios, and transforming the future by narrowing it down to the preferred. The study provides valuable insight into the driving forces relevant to the South African mining landscape. In addition, it provides insight on how to anticipate the changes these driving forces may bring about for the industry over the next 40 years from a decision-maker’s point of view. It is up to the mining industry to select the road to follow in terms of progress and sustainable development. Through an innovative approach, the creation of an environment of trust, the sharing of values, purposes and benefits, the South African Mine of the Future Vision is attainable. The South African mining industry must commit itself to working in collaborative partnerships with local communities, government, society and labour; stepping boldly into a world of social, environmental, technological and commercial innovation.