by To Kwok-Fai. / Thesis (M.B.A.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 1992. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 83-84). / ABSTRACT --- p.ii / ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS --- p.iii / TABLE OF CONTENTS --- p.iv / LIST OF ILLUSTRATIONS --- p.vi / LIST OF TABLES --- p.viii / Chapter / Chapter I. --- INTRODUCTION --- p.1 / Chapter II. --- THE GROWTH AND CHANGING CHARACTER OF THE FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET --- p.3 / Three Economic Blocs --- p.3 / Increase of Trading Volume --- p.4 / Shift In Customer Base --- p.5 / Twenty-four Hours Global Market --- p.5 / Growth in the Use of Computer --- p.6 / Chapter III. --- FORECASTING OF FOREIGN EXCHANGE RATE --- p.7 / Efficient Market Hypothesis and Random Walk Theory --- p.7 / The Hypothesis --- p.7 / Implications --- p.9 / Chaos Theory --- p.9 / Definition --- p.9 / Phenomena in Foreign Exchange Market --- p.9 / Implications --- p.12 / Fundamental Analysis in Forecasting Foreign Exchange Rate --- p.12 / Technical Analysis in Forecasting Foreign Exchange Rate --- p.15 / Other Factors Influencing Foreign Exchange Rate --- p.17 / Chapter IV. --- METHODOLOGY --- p.18 / Collection of Data --- p.18 / Selection of Trading Systems --- p.20 / Construction of Trading Systems --- p.21 / Simple Moving Average Trading System --- p.21 / Directional Movement Index Trading System --- p.22 / Evaluation of Trading Performance --- p.27 / Chapter V. --- RESULTS AND FINDINGS --- p.30 / Simple Moving Average Trading System --- p.30 / Directional Movement Index Trading System --- p.40 / Comparison of the Two Trading Systems --- p.50 / Current Net Profit or Loss --- p.50 / Sample Standard Deviation --- p.52 / Sharpe Ratio --- p.52 / Ratio of Average Profit per Profitable Transaction to Average Loss per Losing Transaction --- p.55 / Chapter VI. --- CONCLUSIONS --- p.57 / APPENDIX / Chapter 1. --- Program Listing of Simple Moving Average Trading System Performance Report --- p.59 / Chapter 2. --- Program Listing of Directional Movement Index Trading System Performance Report --- p.63 / Chapter 3. --- "Detailed Listing of USD/DEM High, Low and Close Exchange Rate from Oct 18 1988 to Dec 31 1991" --- p.67 / BIBLIOGRAPHY --- p.83

by Fok Shun-cheong, Vincent. / Thesis (M.B.A.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 1991. / Bibliography: leaves [37-38] / ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS / Chapter I. --- INTRODUCTION --- p.1 / The Hong Kong Exchange Market --- p.1 / Structure of the market --- p.2 / Forecasting Exchange Rates --- p.4 / Objectives --- p.5 / Chapter II. --- METHODOLOGY --- p.6 / Selecting the Bases for Forecasting --- p.6 / Sampling --- p.9 / Chapter III. --- THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK --- p.10 / Chapter 1. --- Investment Objectives --- p.10 / Chapter 2. --- Time Frame --- p.11 / Chapter 3. --- Funds Available --- p.12 / Chapter 4. --- Time Available --- p.12 / Chapter 5. --- Information Available --- p.13 / Chapter 6. --- Transaction Nature and Cost --- p.14 / Chapter 7. --- Knowledge and Background --- p.14 / Chapter 8. --- Position Taking --- p.14 / Chapter 9. --- Past Experience --- p.16 / Chapter 10. --- External Influences --- p.16 / Chapter IV. --- SURVEY FINDINGS --- p.18 / Individual Investors / Chapter A. --- The Level of Exchange Rate and Interest Rate --- p.18 / Chapter B. --- Seldom use of Charts and Technical Indicators --- p.19 / Chapter C. --- No Relationship between Demographic Variables and Forecasting Bases --- p.19 / Chapter D. --- No Relationship between the Experience of the respondents and the Forecasting Bases --- p.20 / Dealers / Chapter A. --- Charts often considered --- p.22 / Chapter B. --- Technical Indicators also important --- p.22 / Chapter C. --- Emphasis on the Fundamental rather than Technical Analysis --- p.23 / Chapter D. --- Market Sentiments --- p.24 / Chapter E. --- Econometric Models Seldom Used --- p.25 / Chapter F. --- Differences among the six major currencies --- p.27 / Chapter V. --- LIMITATIONS OF THE SURVEY --- p.29 / Chapter VII. --- SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS --- p.30 / APPENDICES / BIBLIOGRAPHY

by Chan Yeung-Ki. / Thesis (M.B.A.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 1991. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 54-55). / ABSTRACT --- p.1 / TABLE OF CONTENTS --- p.2 / Chapter I. --- BACKGROUND --- p.3 / Chapter II. --- THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK --- p.7 / Purchasing Power Parity --- p.7 / Real Exchange Rate --- p.9 / Monetary Approach --- p.12 / Explaining the model --- p.16 / Chapter III. --- APPLICATION --- p.23 / Scenario 1 --- p.39 / Scenario 2 --- p.41 / Chapter IV. --- CONCLUSION --- p.44 / EXHIBIT --- p.47 / BIBLIOGRAPHY --- p.54