Evaluating options, making informed decisions, measuring performance, and achieving management objectives in forest fire management organizations (FFMO) requires the development and application of measures that reflect how an organization has managed challenges presented. This thesis makes use of historical fire records from 1961 – 2008 to assess the impact of weather and management interventions on fire suppression effectiveness and annual area burned (AAB) within Alberta’s Boreal Natural Region. Statistical models relating AAB to variations in the proportion of extreme fire behaviour potential days suggest a significant portion of inter-annual variation in AAB (82 %) can be explained by the proportion of days when the Build-Up Index exceeds its 95th percentile. Probability of containment and large fire occurrence models are also developed that provide the framework for a new approach to presuppression planning in Alberta that can account for factors significantly influencing fire occurrence and containment outcome.

Evaluating options, making informed decisions, measuring performance, and achieving management objectives in forest fire management organizations (FFMO) requires the development and application of measures that reflect how an organization has managed challenges presented. This thesis makes use of historical fire records from 1961 – 2008 to assess the impact of weather and management interventions on fire suppression effectiveness and annual area burned (AAB) within Alberta’s Boreal Natural Region. Statistical models relating AAB to variations in the proportion of extreme fire behaviour potential days suggest a significant portion of inter-annual variation in AAB (82 %) can be explained by the proportion of days when the Build-Up Index exceeds its 95th percentile. Probability of containment and large fire occurrence models are also developed that provide the framework for a new approach to presuppression planning in Alberta that can account for factors significantly influencing fire occurrence and containment outcome.

The Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources uses airtankers for forest fire suppression that now have onboard GPS units that track their real-time location, velocity and altitude. However, the GPS data does not indicate which fire is being fought, the time each airtanker spends travelling to and from each fire or the time each airtanker spends flying between each fire and the lake from which it scoops water to drop on the fire. A pattern recognition algorithm was developed and used to determine what was happening at each point along the airtanker’s track, including the time and location of every water pickup. This pre-processed data was used to develop detailed models of the airtanker service process. A discrete-event simulation model of the initial attack airtanker system was also developed and used to show how service process models can be incorporated in other models to help solve complex airtanker management decision-making problems.

The Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources uses airtankers for forest fire suppression that now have onboard GPS units that track their real-time location, velocity and altitude. However, the GPS data does not indicate which fire is being fought, the time each airtanker spends travelling to and from each fire or the time each airtanker spends flying between each fire and the lake from which it scoops water to drop on the fire. A pattern recognition algorithm was developed and used to determine what was happening at each point along the airtanker’s track, including the time and location of every water pickup. This pre-processed data was used to develop detailed models of the airtanker service process. A discrete-event simulation model of the initial attack airtanker system was also developed and used to show how service process models can be incorporated in other models to help solve complex airtanker management decision-making problems.

For two fire seasons in Nordegg, Alberta, a system of in-stand weather stations were arranged along a north and south aligned valley and combined with collection of destructive fine fuel moisture content data in order to quantify variations due to differences in slope and aspect. South-facing sites were found to be slightly warmer (1.5°C), less humid (5%) and received on average 20% more solar radiation than the north-facing sites during the peak burning period of the day. Based on these weather observations a difference of 1 or 2 % moisture content between north and south sites was predicted using existing theoretical relationships. A corresponding difference in observed moisture content was not identified, due to the low transmittance recorded at the in-stand sites (<10% of open solar radiation measurements), variation amongst destructive samples and logistical limits on the number of replicates collected.

For two fire seasons in Nordegg, Alberta, a system of in-stand weather stations were arranged along a north and south aligned valley and combined with collection of destructive fine fuel moisture content data in order to quantify variations due to differences in slope and aspect. South-facing sites were found to be slightly warmer (1.5°C), less humid (5%) and received on average 20% more solar radiation than the north-facing sites during the peak burning period of the day. Based on these weather observations a difference of 1 or 2 % moisture content between north and south sites was predicted using existing theoretical relationships. A corresponding difference in observed moisture content was not identified, due to the low transmittance recorded at the in-stand sites (<10% of open solar radiation measurements), variation amongst destructive samples and logistical limits on the number of replicates collected.