Deforestation and land use change are widespread in western Uganda. However, the spatial patterns and time-series of change and the reasons why it is occurring remain to be fully investigated. In this work a combination of satellite imagery and social surveys is used to quantify forest gains and loss over the last three decades in the region close to Lake Albert, whilst also providing an account of possible drivers of change. This area proves to be interesting as it covers regions with both formally protected areas (gazetted regions) and un-protected forest, the latter being largely under private ownership. Remote sensing data from the Landsat satellites were gathered for forest change detection, and were processed using standard remote sensing techniques, then quantified using GIS and regression methods. Fieldwork allowed these data to be ground truthed while gathering (quantitative) household surveys and (qualitative) key informant interviews. Quantitative surveys were analysed using Principal Components Analysis (PCA) and cluster analysis, and were compared qualitatively with the satellite analysis and stakeholder interviews. The results show that forest cover declined significantly outside gazetted areas at the expense of varying local?scale processes, although the protection of the gazetted forests was remarkably successful. In forest corridors outside gazetted regions, losses exceeded 90% (p<0.05). Survey data suggest that rural poor households were more likely to be situated in forested regions, and were more dependent on forest resources for their livelihoods. However, the drivers of change were spatially variable, with expansion of sugarcane farming being a likely driver in the northern areas, but small?scale agricultural expansion a significant factor in the more southern parts of the study region. While there is wide agreement within the data that the patterns of forest cover and land use changes are anthropogenically driven, more specific drivers are swamped by intricacies of the bio-physical and socio-economic preconditions that are inseparable in both space and time, although agricultural expansion and population growth were evident and pervasive. The analyses provide insights into complex anthropogenic processes at various spatial scales, and policy recommendations provided are widely applicable for developing countries struggling to conserve nature whilst boosting economic growth.

A Teoria da Transição Florestal prevê recuperação das florestas a partir de alterações no foco da economia, onde os setores terciário e secundário substituiriam o setor primário. Críticos desta hipótese afirmam que a transição ocorre por meio do deslocamento da produção agropecuária ao exterior, enquanto os países produtores passariam por uma expansão da agricultura, perdendo cobertura florestal. Outros autores refutam o argumento de que o comércio internacional seria o principal canal de ligação entre a Transição Florestal em países importadores e o avanço das fronteiras agrícolas nos países produtores. Diante da divergência dos modelos explicativos, o presente estudo busca avaliar se o comércio internacional de commodities agrícolas promove o deslocamento das áreas de desmatamento de países importadores de commodities para países exportadores. Foram analisados dados de exportações e importações de soja em grão e óleo de palma pelos principais países nesses mercados, confrontando-os com dados de variação histórica da cobertura florestal nacional entre os anos de 1990 e 2015. Os resultados apontam que o comércio internacional de commodities agrícolas opera como um canal de realocação entre o ganho de florestas em países importadores e o desmatamento em países exportadores / The Forest Transition Theory predicts that forest recover arises from changes in the focus of the economy, where the service and industry sectors replace the agriculture sector. Critics affirm that the transition occurs through the displacement of agricultural production abroad, while producing countries would undertake agriculture an expansion and lose forest cover. Other authors refute the argument that international trade would be the main linkage between the Forest Transition occurrence in importing countries and the advance of agricultural frontiers in producing countries. Considering the divergence between explanatory models, this study seeks to assess whether the international trade of agricultural commodities promotes the displacement of deforestation areas from importing countries to commodity-exporting countries. Data of exports and imports of soya bean and palm oil from the main countries in these markets were confronted to the historical variation of national forest cover between 1990 and 2015. Results point out that international trade of agricultural commodities operates as a relocation channel between forest gains in importer countries and deforestation in exporter ones

A Teoria da Transição Florestal prevê recuperação das florestas a partir de alterações no foco da economia, onde os setores terciário e secundário substituiriam o setor primário. Críticos desta hipótese afirmam que a transição ocorre por meio do deslocamento da produção agropecuária ao exterior, enquanto os países produtores passariam por uma expansão da agricultura, perdendo cobertura florestal. Outros autores refutam o argumento de que o comércio internacional seria o principal canal de ligação entre a Transição Florestal em países importadores e o avanço das fronteiras agrícolas nos países produtores. Diante da divergência dos modelos explicativos, o presente estudo busca avaliar se o comércio internacional de commodities agrícolas promove o deslocamento das áreas de desmatamento de países importadores de commodities para países exportadores. Foram analisados dados de exportações e importações de soja em grão e óleo de palma pelos principais países nesses mercados, confrontando-os com dados de variação histórica da cobertura florestal nacional entre os anos de 1990 e 2015. Os resultados apontam que o comércio internacional de commodities agrícolas opera como um canal de realocação entre o ganho de florestas em países importadores e o desmatamento em países exportadores / The Forest Transition Theory predicts that forest recover arises from changes in the focus of the economy, where the service and industry sectors replace the agriculture sector. Critics affirm that the transition occurs through the displacement of agricultural production abroad, while producing countries would undertake agriculture an expansion and lose forest cover. Other authors refute the argument that international trade would be the main linkage between the Forest Transition occurrence in importing countries and the advance of agricultural frontiers in producing countries. Considering the divergence between explanatory models, this study seeks to assess whether the international trade of agricultural commodities promotes the displacement of deforestation areas from importing countries to commodity-exporting countries. Data of exports and imports of soya bean and palm oil from the main countries in these markets were confronted to the historical variation of national forest cover between 1990 and 2015. Results point out that international trade of agricultural commodities operates as a relocation channel between forest gains in importer countries and deforestation in exporter ones