Self-reliance in wood products is one of the major objectives of Kenya's forest policy; stated as the management of forest resources for the adequate provision of the needs of the country in timber and other forest products to meet the community's requirements, and where possible provide for exports. The implications of such a policy are such that strategies formulated, programmes designed and practices employed in production of wood resources and wood-based products should be geared towards the anticipated needs of the intermediate consumers, which in turn are only responding to the needs of the final consumers - the society. It is argued here that such production strategies, programmes and practices cannot be formulated and pursued to satisfactorily fulfill the policy objectives, without first identifying and understanding the needs of the specific target markets. Among factors identified as necessary in understanding the target markets are market structure, size, location and dynamics of consumption pattern-determining parameters such as time, demographic and economic factors. Using production and consumption data, primarily for the period 1960-1975, quantitative and qualitative methods were used to analyze and describe the various markets of wood products, as the basis of forecasting the probable future market trends. On the basis of current management and consumption trends, forecast estimates indicate possible internal wood supply deficits during, and beyond, the period 1996-2000 AD. Current and projected market trends indicate a progressive shift from mechanical wood industries and products, mainly sawnwood, towards fibre-based reconstituted wood products - fibreboards, particleboards and paper products. This projected development would tend to favour greater attention by forest management to the potentials of not only natural forests but species diversification of man-made forests. The fibre-based industries can satisfactorily utilize small-sized logs, hence shorter rotations, and a wide range of species composition since some of the products do not exhibit individually specific wood characteristics. Plantation-species diversity, in addition to avoiding the risks of possible loss in case of an epidemic, has the advantages of comparative climatic and zonal suitability in establishment. Trends indicate that fuelwood is, and for some time will continue to be the single major component of wood consumption, rising from about 15 million M³ (rw) by 1975 to about 30 million M³ (rw) per year by 2000 AD; yet forest management seems to have no supply strategy for this product. A major identified deficiency in forestry production-utilization-marketing as a system has been insufficient coordination in wood production management decisions with different industries' development programmes and anticipated market trends, and their requirements. Probable future wood supply-demand balances were comparatively estimated on the basis of potential supplies from current and planned wood production programmes and the projected markets. From the view point of wood production management decisions, medium and long-term market forecasts can be considered more meaningful than short-term needs, since the latter will have to draw from maturing stocks, while current and planned forest establishment programmes are the basis of future medium and long-term supplies. For this reason, emphasis has been laid on the medium and long-term forecasts, up to 50 years from now, or 1 to 2 production rotations. This analysis indicates that while management has placed emphasis on plantation forestry for industrial wood supplies, the strategy, despite its merits, is biased in favour of predominantly two exotic softwood species groups, comprising of cypress and pines despite the feasibility of producing wood supplies from potentially commercial and marketable indigenous species (mainly hardwoods) and other exotic hardwoods. While natural forests constitute about 92 percent and plantations 8 percent of Kenya's forests, little management effort has been directed at commercial wood production from the former, whose annual supplies average 20 percent of total industrial wood harvested. Quantitative and qualitative analysis of indigenous woods in natural forests indicates great commercial potential of these indigenous resources. There is a need for a shift from exclusive reliance on silvicultural considerations and wood production per se as the main criteria for production management, to a set of criteria that gives sufficient consideration emphasis on utilization and marketing requirements. Greater co-ordination between foresters, industries and marketers is required in the areas of research, development decisions, information gathering and dissemination, and wood resources allocation and sales to facilitate Production Planning for the target market needs. / Forestry, Faculty of / Graduate

The South is one of the leading timber producing regions in the world. Monitoring economic contribution of the forest products industry in the South over time is thus crucial in addressing critical economic issues and in understanding important industry trends. This study reports the economic impacts for the four forest-based industry (forestry, lumber and wood products, paper and allied products, and wood furniture) for 13 southern states, individually as well as regionally, and compares to 2001, the last comprehensive study of the industry in the South. During the study period, the industry’s employment decreased by 33.35% and earnings in real terms decreased by 18.44%. However, value of shipments and manufacturing valueded for the industry in real terms increased by 59.21% and 68.22% respectively. Therefore, despite of disproportionate impacts of the current recession and decline in housing starts, the industry still is an important component of the South’s economy.

A spatial analysis was used to examine location of Mississippi’s forest products manufacturers and identify potential forest business clusters. A Poisson regression was used to examine the impact of transportation infrastructure, labor and availability of raw materials on location of these manufacturers. Spatial analysis indicated that manufacturers tended to cluster and identified four potential forest business clusters. Regression analysis indicated that volume of harvested sawlogs had a positive impact on location of primary and secondary forest products manufacturers, whereas volume of harvested pulpwood had a positive impact on location of only secondary forest products manufacturers. Presence of four-lane interstate highways was associated with decreased location likelihood for secondary manufacturers, whereas railway presence increased location likelihood. Presence of primary manufacturers had a positive impact on location of secondary manufacturers, whereas labor force also had a positive impact on location of secondary forest product manufacturers.

Recent emphasis on producing energy from woody biomass has raised questions about the impact of a vibrant wood-to-energy market on the southern wood supply chain, which consists of forest landowners, forest industry mills, and harvesting contractors. This study utilized two surveys of southern wood supply chain participants and a designed operational study of an energywood harvest to investigate the impact of an expanded wood-to-energy market on each member of the southern wood supply chain. First, a survey of consulting foresters was conducted to examine how harvest tract size, forest ownership, and forest industry structure have changed within the U.S. South and how foresters expect the wood-to-energy market to impact the wood supply chain in the future. Second, this study employed a mail survey of forest landowners, forest industry mills, and wood-to-energy facilities from the thirteen southern states in order to investigate expected competition for resources, wood supply chain profitability, and landowner willingness to sell timber to energy facilities. Third, this study conducted a designed operational study on a southern pine clearcut in the Coastal Plain of North Carolina, with three replications of three harvest prescriptions to measure harvesting productivity and costs when harvesting woody biomass for energy. The three treatments were: a Conventional roundwood only harvest (control), an Integrated harvest in which roundwood was delivered to traditional mills and residuals were chipped for energy, and a Chip harvest in which all stems were chipped for energy use. Results from the two surveys suggest that timber markets are inadequate in many areas of the South as a result of expanded timber supply and reduced forest products industry capacity. Only 12% of responding landowners and foresters had sold wood to an energy facility, indicating that wood-to-energy markets are non-existent in many areas of the South. Nonetheless, 98% of consulting foresters and 90% of landowners reported a willingness to sell timber to an energy facility if the right price were offered. Consulting foresters expected wood-to-energy facilities to provide an additional market for wood, and not displace forest products industry capacity. However, two-thirds of consulting foresters, wood-to-energy facilities, and private landowners expected competition between mills and energy facilities while 95% of fibermills (pulp/paper and composite mills) expected competition. Fibermills were much more concerned about competition for resources and increases in wood costs than any other member of the southern wood supply chain. The operational study documented the challenges facing some harvesting contractors in economically producing energywood. Onboard truck roundwood costs increased from $9.35 green t-1 in the Conventional treatment to $10.98 green t-1 in the Integrated treatment as a result of reduced felling and skidding productivity. Energy chips were produced for $19.19 green t-1 onboard truck in the Integrated treatment and $17.93 green t-1 in the Chip treatment. Energywood harvesting costs were higher in this study than in previous research that employed loggers with less expensive, more fuel efficient equipment. This suggests that high capacity, wet-site capable loggers may not be able to economically harvest and transport energywood without a substantial increase in energywood prices. This study suggests that the southern wood supply chain is in position to benefit from a vibrant wood-to-energy market. Landowners should benefit from an additional market for small-diameter stems. This study shows that high production, wet-site capable loggers should not harvest energywood until prices for this material appreciate considerably. Wet-site loggers have very expensive equipment with high hourly fuel consumption rates and this study documented that energywood production was not sufficiently high to offset the high hourly cost of owning and operating this equipment. Nevertheless, a wood-to-energy market should benefit harvesting contractors in general because unless the forest products industry contracts further, loggers can continue to harvest and deliver roundwood to mills as they do at present and those properly equipped for energywood harvesting at low cost may be able to profit from a new market. The forest products industry has the largest potential downside of any member of the southern wood supply chain. This study documents widespread anticipation of competition between the forest products and wood-to-energy industries. However, to date there has been minimal wide-scale competition between the forest products and wood-to-energy industries. It is possible that the wood-to-energy industry will complement, rather than compete with the forest products industry, and thereby benefit each member of the southern wood supply chain. / Ph. D.

The process analysis approach was chosen for modeling the joint product nature of timber supply. Considerable emphasis was placed upon defining model components that would be required for developing a positivistic model of timber supply. An empirical application of the proposed linear programming model to Eastern Virginia simulated the impacts of increased fuelwood prices on the timber market system in 1976. The empirical application of the model indicated an ability to simulate many of the complex market interactions inherent in timber supply. Fuelwood was found to act as both a production complement and a production competitor with the conventional forest products, depending upon the range of prices analyzed. Fuelwood price was also found to act as a demand shifter for roundwood outputs of the forest. / Ph. D.

An analytical tool must combine sufficient scope with cultural neutrality to be adequate for analyzing problems across technological style boundaries. The concept of a wood-supply system is proposed, defined as a mechanism generating a consistent flow of wood to a set of wood-consuming mills, beginning its work with the severing of trees and ending it by feeding a pulping digester or head saw. The contrast in wood flow between the wood-supply systems of the Southern United States and Sweden is explored. The systems accommodate surges in wood-consumption rates and changes in wood-supply difficulty differently .. The South maintains a small wood inventory by keeping considerable production capacity idle; Sweden keeps little capacity idle by maintaining a large cushion of wood inventories. The implications of differences in relative cost between wood in inventory and forcibly idle production capacity are discussed. As a result of the historically motivated emphasis on accounting for capacity in Sweden and for wood in the South, costs associated with wood inventories and idle capacity appear to have been overlooked in a mirror-image pattern. The transfer of equipment between harvesting styles whose evolution has been governed by different relative costs has a high risk of failure. Southern equipment is cheap, uncomplicated. robust, and dependable in order to survive forced idleness and to produce without buffer inventories. Swedish equipment is expensive, complex, sensitive, and less dependable, due to the freedom to produce at capacity and the occurrence of large buffer inventories. Equipment manufacturers need to estimate the relative cost of idle wood and idle capacity when analyzing equipment exports across style boundaries. Suggestions for further work include an exploration of the relative cost in each region, and the development of unbiased methods of accounting for idle resources. It is also suggested that the different interpretations of the concept of forestry in Europe and North America be explored. / Ph. D.

Experimental drying studies were made on two types of solar lumber kilns, one an external collector type and the other a semi-greenhouse type. Two charges of green sugar maple lumber (5/4 inches  thick) were tested in an external collector solar kiln at the U.S. Forest Products Laboratory, Madison (43°5'N, 89°23'W), Wisconsin, during the summer of 1982. In the first run detailed drying data were obtained and the energy balance was calculated for each day during the entire drying period. Based on these results, the following empirical model for the overall efficiency of the kiln was obtained: EFF = - .0413 + .0102^*(IMC) - .0000562^*(IMC)² where, EFF = overall efficiency of the kiln IMC = average initial moisture content of the lumber in percent Using  this model, the average daily moisture content loss in percent (MCL) can be calculated as follows: MCL = (100*EFF*SI*ACV)/[R*(62.4*V*SG)*{0.53*(212-Ti)+972}] where, EFF = the value obtained from the first equation ACV = area of the collector in ft² SI = average daily solar insolation in Btu/ft² R = ratio of total solar energy incident on the collector cover to total energy available to the system V = green volume of lumber in ft³ SG = green specific gravity of lumber Ti = average initial temperature inside the kiln in °F A comparison of the actual drying time observed in the second run showed good agreement with the predicted drying time obtained from the above equations. A single charge of 9/8 inches green yellow poplar was dried in a semi-greenhouse kiln at Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Blacksburg (35°09'N, 81°30'W), Virginia, during the fall of 1982. Following the same procedure as for the external collector kiln, an empirical model for the overall efficiency (EFF) of the kiln was obtained as a function of initial moisture content (IMC), EFF = - .0767 + .00988*IMC / M.S.

A model was developed to estimate the economic stock supply of primary wood products. Two hardwood products were recognized: logs and bolts. The supply model was used to evaluate the impacts of shifting primary product demands and increasing supply costs on delivered prices and quantities in southwest Virginia. Homogeneous supply response cells, identified from Forest Service forest survey data, were used to generate log and bolt supplies. Response cells define blocks of forest land with similar biologic, physiographic, and landowner characteristics. Yield equations estimate the volume of logs and bolts available. Harvesting and hauling costs depend on a response cell's physiographic characteristics. Stumpage owners set reservation price as a function of expected stumpage prices, future timber yields, and an alternative rate of return. Recovery cost per unit in a response cell equals the sum of harvesting and hauling costs and reservation price. The quantities of logs and bolts supplied are determined by comparing harvest revenues to recovery costs. If revenues are greater than or equal to costs in a particular response cell, then timber is harvested The demands for logs and bolts are derived from the demand for manufactured products. Log and bolt demand equations in the model were statistically estimated. For each time period, the model determines the delivered log and bolt prices which equate the quantities of logs and bolts supplied to the quantities demanded. The solution technique is iterative. The quantities demanded and supplied of logs and bolts are determined for the given delivered prices. If quantities supplied do not equal the quantities demanded, then delivered prices are adjusted, and the quantities are recalculated. Primary product supplies in southwest Virginia are price elastic because of extensive hardwood resources and relatively constant recovery costs. Expansions in primary product demands expected over the next 15 years should have little direct impact on delivered prices. Delivered prices, however, will be sensitive to production costs. These costs will rise if factor input prices, such as fuel prices, wage rates, or machinery costs, increase. / Ph. D.

The hardwood sawmill industry is faced with a decreasing availability of high quality timber, and declining log quality. Ways to improve the technology are needed so that this lower quality resource can be better utilized. The hydraulic linear positioner is one such new technology. The objective of this research is to quantitatively determine the impact of hydraulic linear positioners on the production efficiency of hardwood sawmills by an analysis of: 1) lumber grade yields; 2) log value; 3) sawing time; and 4) sawing variation attributed to the linear positioners, using Factory Grade No. 2 red oak logs sawn into lumber by full-infinite taper and conventional sawing patterns. The results of this study indicate: 1) Hydraulic linear positioners in a hardwood sawmill can improve the production efficiency by a little over one percent (the positioners alone), and by up to 11 percent when including the contribution of the hardware and software with the positioners. 2) Selecting the opening face and using the full-infinite taper setout capabilities of the positioners did not improve the lumber grade yield from the logs used in this study. 3) Opening face selection and taper setout increase sawing time and thereby reduce the log value when based upon a $/log/operating minute. Such practices can reduce the production efficiency by up to $17 per log per operating minute. / Master of Science

Two programs, HAPWED (Hardwoods And Potential Wood-using Enterprises Database) and FIST (Facility Investment Spreadsheet Template) were developed. HAPWED is designed to analyze the feasibility of investments in wood processing facilities with respect to the economic supply of timber. The program requires user supplied databases of timber inventory, mill requirements, and product requirements. The program utilizes CONDOR III database manager. FIST is a spreadsheet template written for SuperCalc IV. It calculates the net present value, internal rate of return, and the undiscounted payback period using estimates of annual cash flows supplied by the user. Timber inventory, mill, and product databases were developed for demonstration. Eight facilities were tested for economic feasibility using FIST, two had positive NPV's (a conventional sawmill and a laminated veneer lumber mill). Analyses conducted using HAPWED indicated sufficient volume in Southwest Virginia to supply both mills from three different supply points using 50-mile supply radii. / Master of Science