Lyginant su praėjusiais šimtmečiais, dvidešimtasis amžius buvo kupinas kraštutinumų. Ankstyvoji to dalis buvo sklandžiai besitęsianti XIX amžiaus taika. Bet šią tylą prieš audrą sekė I-asis Pasaulinis karas, komunizmas, nevaldoma infliacija, fašizmas, nuosmukis, II-asis Pasaulinis karas, ir sovietinė Rytų Europos okupacija. Po jų ėjo santykinio stabilumo laikotarpis, kuriame kartu egzistavo Šaltojo karo baimė, NATO aljansas ir dekolonializmas. Baigiantis amžiui, baigėsi ir Šaltasis karas, buvo sugriauta sovietų imperija, Rytų Europoje atsirado demokratija, suklestėjo Amerikos kultūriniai ir buitiniai dalykai ir atsirado euras. Dvidešimtasis amžius prasidėjo labai efektyvia tarptautine valiutine sistema, kuri buvo sunaikinta I-ojo Pasaulinio karo metu, o jos nemokšiškas atkūrimas tarpukario laikotarpiu atnešė didelį nuosmukį, Hitlerį ir II-ąjį Pasaulinį karą. Nauji veiksmai, kurie ėjo po to, labiau priklausė nuo JAV Federalinės rezervų sistemos dolerio politikos, negu nuo paties aukso metodų.. 1971m. nustojus galioti Bretton-Woods'o valiutų kursų reguliavimo sistemai, bei perėjus prie “plaukiojančiu kursų” Tarpbankinė valiutų rinka tampa pačia dinamiškiausia ir likvidžiausia pasaulio rinka - vienintele rinka dirbančia ištisa parą. Greita investuotų lėšų apyvarta, žema sandoriu savikaina bei aukštas likvidumo lygis išskiria tarpbankinė valiutų rinka iš kitų, tradicinių finansų rinkų. Valiutų rinka skirstoma i biržines ir nebiržines prekybos rinkas. Nebiržinė rinka faktiškai yra... [toliau žr. visą tekstą] / By comparing with last centuries, the twentieth century has produced extremes. Its earliest part was a benign continuation of the peace of the nineteenth century. But this calm before the storm was followed by the World War I, communism, hyperinflation, fascism, depression, the World War II, and the Soviet occupation of Eastern Europe. There followed a period of comparative stability, punctuated by the balance of terror of the Cold War, the Nato Alliance, and decolonialism. Toward the end of the century the Cold War ended, the Soviet Empire was dismantled, democracy emerged in Eastern Europe, the Americana flourished and the euro came. The twentieth century began with a highly efficient international monetary system that was destroyed in World War I, and its bungled recreation in the inter-war period brought on the great depression, Hitler and the World War II. The new arrangements that succeeded it depended more on the dollar policies of the Federal Reserve System than on the discipline of gold itself. In the new arrangements, which were ratified at Bretton Woods in 1944, countries were required to establish parities fixed in gold and maintain fixed exchange rates to one another. With the breakdown of the Bretton Woods system, money supplies became more elastic, accommodating not only inflationary wage developments but also the monopolistic pricing of internationally traded commodities. Foreign Exchange trading describes trading in the many currencies of the world. It is the... [to full text]

The master's thesis deals with the design of the proposed automatic trading system especially for daily trading on the currency markets. The aim of the thesis is to create a complex theoretical basis, in the practical part of the work to use the knowledge to create a suitable automatic trading system. The thesis focuses on the technical analysis of the currency markets. The proposed system will be optimally optimized to maximize profitability and stability with application to the most liquid currency pairs.

This thesis deals with the implementation of the software for automated stock trading based on trend indicators and oscillators. It describes the various signals that are provided by formations in charts and technical indicators, but also the possibility of using advanced artificial intelligence methods. This document describes entire development process of the software from individual parts to the folding of these parts into one system. It focuses on the optimization processes of individual parts, as well as a complete system. This thesis also deals with the testing of the system on historical data and its application on the latest data. It introduces the future plans, deployment options to the real market and its further improvement in order to develop ideal business system capable of autonomous thinking and trading.

The thesis is concerned with the design and optimization of a trading strategy on currency markets in order to maximize profit on the EURUSD currency pair. The strategy is based on standard technical indicators and is tested in demo account environment. The thesis describes the whole development from initial design to an optimized version of the draft.

In this thesis, we study the return and volatility spillovers between forex and stock markets in Scandinavian countries employing recently developed method- ology of spillover indices. Those measures are based on forecast error variance decomposition of generalized vector autoregressive (GVAR) model. This allows us to estimate both total and directional spillovers. Moreover, frequency connect- edness analysis is conducted by decomposing the spillover indices into frequency bands, corresponding to short-, medium- and long-run connectedness. We used daily data for major stock market indices and exchange rates of domestic cur- rency towards US dollar for Norway, Sweden, Denmark and Finland. Our data spans from February 2002 till July 2018 that covers turmoil periods of global fi- nancial crisis in 2007-2009, European sovereign debt crisis 2010-2013 and Brexit referendum in mid 2016. Our empirical analysis reveals that Norwegian financial markets do not contribute much to both return and volatility spillovers. On the other hand, euro and Danish FX market perform very similarly, by exhibiting the highest spillover contributions for both returns and volatility. Furthermore, distinct increasing trends in spillovers are revealed during the turmoil periods for most of the markets. From frequency...

Práce popisuje vznik, historii, důvod existence včetně základního mechanismu fungování měnového trhu FOREX - International Interbank Foreign Exchange. Zejména je zaměřena na zkoumání a vyhodnocování historického vývoje hodnot měn na tomto měnovém trhu z hlediska čtyř oblastí, a to na: klasifikaci, popis a testování ziskovosti vybraných indikátorů technické analýzy včetně výčtu nejznámějších forem grafických formací, metody filtru, testování autokorelace výnosů a výsledný vliv z uplatnění uvedených metod technické analýzy za dané období na změnu majetku investora.

This thesis deals with the Forex and trading on it. The aim of this work is to evaluate the possibility of trading primarily for retail investors, for which this financial market is becoming increasingly popular. In the first two chapters, Forex, its characteristic and information about trading are presented. In the next chapter, analysis of exchange rate development is described , both fundamental and technical. More attention is paid to technical analysis. The demonstration of application of technical analysis is presented. The last chapter deals with comparing the selected trading platforms in terms of availability, technical analysis and trading opportunities.

This thesis deals with trading strategy development on foreign market exchange (FOREX) from a perspective of technical analysis. A hypothesis that price data can be used for stable profitable decision making is analyzed. For that purpose, financial data preparation and derived indicators are described in detail. At first, strategies are randomly constructed. Afterward, they are improved iteratively by means of evolution principles. Genetic programming is used in particular. Special attention is devoted to fitness functon definition, on which the progress of strategies depends. Besides usual criterion - profit, other aspects are taken into account. Transactional costs are included in strategy evaluation. Costs have even been increased in comparison with declared values. Some of the best strategies are tested on data, which has not been used for their development. Obtained results did not support the hypothesis. However, process of a strategy search can be improved.

Magíster en Gestión para la Globalización / En esta tesis se evalúa la implementación en Chile del negocio de Money Manager de productos derivados. Este negocio es común en el mundo desarrollado y presenta altos niveles de crecimiento año a año. El negocio consiste en manejar cuentas de terceros en brokers de Forex y Contratos por Diferencia, haciendo uso del alto apalancamiento disponible en esos instrumentos, para sacar provecho de oportunidades de muy corto plazo. Para validar lo atractivo del negocio para el medio nacional, se analizó las principales alternativas de inversión existentes en chile, las cuales son competencia de este negocio. Mediante un análisis FODA se verifica que el negocio propuesto es ventajoso en comparación con las alternativas existentes, destacándose como fortalezas altas utilidades potenciales y la posibilidad de obtener utilidades en cualquier condición de mercado. Esta última fortaleza genera la oportunidad de capitalizar la crisis actual, captando dinero que se esté desinvirtiendo de instrumentos tradicionales. Adicionalmente, se analiza cada uno de los componentes del modelo de negocios a aplicar, de tal manera de poder explotar las fortalezas del negocio y disminuir el impacto de sus puntos débiles. El negocio analizado en esta tesis requiere de muy poca inversión inicial ($2.500.000), siendo los factores determinantes del éxito la captación de clientes y la capacidad del Money Manager de generar utilidades. Para mostrar que ambos factores se pueden obtener, se realizan dos tareas, una encuesta para obtener intención de inversión en el negocio (se obtiene una inversión potencial de $133 millones para el primer año) y simulación con datos históricos del rendimiento de una de las estrategias de inversión a aplicar (rentabilidad obtenida: 4% mensual). Utilizando los resultados obtenidos, se verifica que el negocio es rentable, mediante la realización de flujo de caja y estado de resultados para los primeros cinco años del negocio, obteniéndose utilidades desde $16,8 millones el primer año hasta $230 millones el año 5.

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