Freshwater inflows are a crucial component for maintaining estuarine health, function and productivity. Streamflows, the primary source of freshwater inflows, have been modified and altered from their natural flow by population growth and anthropogenic impacts on the contributing watersheds. The Guadalupe Estuary is a primary habitat for many endangered species. The Guadalupe River Watershed, which supplies 70% of freshwater inflows, experiences rapid urbanization and agricultural development. This study proposed to characterize the impact of land use/cover change in the Guadalupe River Watershed on freshwater inflows to the Guadalupe Estuary. Pre-whitening, Mann-Kendall and bootstrap techniques were used to test for significant trends on streamflow and precipitation. Analyses suggested more trends in annual and seasonal minimum and mean streamflow than would be expected to occur by chance in the periods of 1930-2005 and 1950-2005. No significant trends were found in the period of 1970-2005. Significant trends were more prominent in the upper watershed and decreased as analysis moved downstream in the period of 1950-2005. Trend tests on precipitation data in the period of 1950-2005 revealed more significant trends than would be expected by chance in mean annual and winter precipitation. Analyses of Landsat images of the watershed using an unsupervised classification method showed an increase in forest, urban and irrigated land by 13, 42 and 7%, respectively, from 1987 to 2002. Urbanized areas were mostly found in the middle part of watershed surrounding the I-35 corridor. More than 80% of irrigated lands are distributed over the San Marcos and Middle Guadalupe River Watersheds. Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was applied for the Guadalupe River Watershed. Calibration and validation using data recorded at USGS 08176500 indicated the model performed well to simulate streamflow. The coefficient of Nash- Sutcliffe, determination and percent bias were 0.83, 0.96 and 3.81, respectively, for calibration and 0.68, 0.75 and 29.38 for validation period. SWAT predicted a 2% decrease in annual freshwater inflow rates from the effect of land use/cover change from 1987 to 2002. Reservoirs increased freshwater inflows during low flow months and decreased the inflows during high flow months. Precipitation variability changed characteristics of monthly freshwater inflows.

Freshwater inflows are essential to the health of estuaries and minimum discharge levels must be maintained in order to sustain a healthy ecosystem. Due to the predicted 50% increase in urban population growth along the Texas coastline by the year 2050, water regulators and managers are faced with the challenge of meeting human needs, while maintaining essential freshwater inflows into estuarine ecosystems. Galveston Bay is of particular concern because 10 million people currently living within its watershed. Freshwater inflows into Galveston Bay during 2006 were determined by using daily discharge data from a United States Geological Survey (USGS) sampling gauge in the Trinity River. Changes in water quality parameters, primary productivity, and phytoplankton community structure in response to freshwater inflows, were monitored monthly to determine how the phytoplankton community responded to inflow events. Freshwater inflow into Galveston Bay during 2006 was indicative of a low-inflow year, with seven large (>7,000 ft.3 sec-1) inflow events occurring throughout the year. There were significant differences in phytoplankton biomass (Fm), photosynthetic efficiency (alpha), and photosynthetic potential (yield) of the phytoplankton community, between wet (January-April and October-December) and dry (May-September) months. Significant differences in the biomass of phytoplankton groups also occurred with cyanobacteria being present in higher concentrations during the dry months and diatoms & dinoflagellates during the wet months. Low flow periods favored cyanobacteria, which lead to decreased secondary productivity, while pulsed inflow events resulted in enhanced secondary productivity by favoring diatoms and dinoflagellates. Resource Limitation Assays (RLAs) indicated that nitrogen was a potential limiting nutrient in Galveston Bay during spring/summer, with light limitation of phytoplankton communities possibly occurring near the mouth of the Trinity River. This study demonstrates the role of freshwater inflows in determining the primary productivity and community composition of the phytoplankton in Galveston Bay over an annual cycle. Inter-annual studies are needed to elucidate the impact of freshwater inflows in years with higher inflows to Galveston Bay and determine which of these impacts need to be incorporated into water management decisions to maintain a healthy ecosystem.

The present study explored the spatial and temporal demographic trends in oyster population dynamics and their relationships to freshwater inflows and the pathogen Dermo (Perkinsus marinus) on three reefs (Shell, Mad Island, and Sammy?s) in West Matagorda Bay, Texas. The objectives were to design and link three population models that simulate oyster population dynamics and integrate the environmental factors that influence growth, reproduction and settlement of larvae among these three reefs. The following variables were evaluated: relative abundance of oyster spat, submarket- and market-size oysters, average weighted incidence of Dermo and percent Dermo infection (prevalence) in submarket- and market-size oysters and their relationships to environmental variables of salinity, temperature, flow and distance from freshwater sources. Using a 30-month continuous dataset, environmental variables accounted for 36% of the variation in Dermo-related variables among the three reefs, and were also positively correlated with distance from freshwater sources. The relative abundance of spat and dead oysters was related to peaks in freshwater inflows occurring 30 days prior to larval settlement. Using these spatial and temporal relationships among biological and environmental variables, and data from five years of monitoring three reefs in Matagorda Bay, an integrated Stella model was developed that simulated oyster population responses to stochastic environmental changes over a 50-year period. Although the geological and structural complexity of each reef appeared to be similar, the model showed the relationship of growth, spawning and spat set were related to hydrologic variation between different reefs and time periods. The model revealed that up-estuary reefs relied on the distribution of larvae from down-estuary reefs following mortality related to freshwater inflow. The model also indicated that loss of freshwater inflows to down-estuary reefs resulted in higher sustained Dermo infections, thus loss of spawning potential and subsequent distribution of larvae to up-estuary reefs. The three oyster populations in West Matagorda Bay provide spawning connectivity and function as an integrated resource for sustaining all oyster reef populations in this bay system. The model presented in this research provides a basis for understanding the population dynamics of WMB as well as a better understanding of the interaction among the reefs that sustain these populations. The model developed in this investigation provides a basis for developing oyster population models for other bay systems and for future research regarding hydrologic influences on oyster population dynamics.

Environmental flows are important to maintain the ecological integrity of the estuary. In a watershed, it is influenced by land use land cover (LULC) change, climate variability, and water regulations. San Antonio, Texas, the 8th largest city in the US, is likely to affect environmental flows to the San Antonio Bay/Guadalupe Estuary, due to rapid urbanization. Time series analysis was conducted at several stream gauging stations to assess trends in hydrologic variables. A bootstrapping method was employed to estimate the critical value for global significance. Results suggested a greater number of trends are observed than are expected to occur by chance. Stream gauging stations present in lower half of the watershed experienced increasing trend, whereas upper half experienced decreasing trends. A similar spatial pattern was not observed for rainfall. Winter season observed maximum number of trends. Wavelet analysis on hydrologic variables, suggested presence of multi-scale temporal variability; dominant frequencies in 10 to 15 year scale was observed in some of the hydrologic variables, with a decadal cycle. Dominant frequencies were also observed in 17 to 23 year scale with repeatability in 20 to 30 years. It is therefore important to understand various ecological processes that are dominant in this scale and quantify possible linkages among them. Genetic algorithm (GA) was used for calibration of the Hydrologic Simulation Program in FORTRAN (HSPF) model. Although, GA is computationally demanding, it is better than manual calibration. Parameter values obtained for the calibrated model had physical representation and were well within the ranges suggested in the literature. Information from LANDSAT images for the years 1987, 1999, and 2003 were introduced to HSPF to quantify the impact of LULC change on environmental flows. Modeling studies indicated, with increase in impervious surface, peak flows increased over the years. Wavelet analysis pointed, that urbanization also impacted storage. Modeling studies quantified, on average about 50% of variability in freshwater inflows could be attributed to variation in precipitation, and approximately 10% of variation in freshwater inflows could be attributed to LULC change. This study will help ecologist, engineers, scientist, and politicians in policy making pertinent to water resources management.

The present study explored the spatial and temporal demographic trends in oyster population dynamics and their relationships to freshwater inflows and the pathogen Dermo (Perkinsus marinus) on three reefs (Shell, Mad Island, and Sammy?s) in West Matagorda Bay, Texas. The objectives were to design and link three population models that simulate oyster population dynamics and integrate the environmental factors that influence growth, reproduction and settlement of larvae among these three reefs. The following variables were evaluated: relative abundance of oyster spat, submarket- and market-size oysters, average weighted incidence of Dermo and percent Dermo infection (prevalence) in submarket- and market-size oysters and their relationships to environmental variables of salinity, temperature, flow and distance from freshwater sources. Using a 30-month continuous dataset, environmental variables accounted for 36% of the variation in Dermo-related variables among the three reefs, and were also positively correlated with distance from freshwater sources. The relative abundance of spat and dead oysters was related to peaks in freshwater inflows occurring 30 days prior to larval settlement. Using these spatial and temporal relationships among biological and environmental variables, and data from five years of monitoring three reefs in Matagorda Bay, an integrated Stella model was developed that simulated oyster population responses to stochastic environmental changes over a 50-year period. Although the geological and structural complexity of each reef appeared to be similar, the model showed the relationship of growth, spawning and spat set were related to hydrologic variation between different reefs and time periods. The model revealed that up-estuary reefs relied on the distribution of larvae from down-estuary reefs following mortality related to freshwater inflow. The model also indicated that loss of freshwater inflows to down-estuary reefs resulted in higher sustained Dermo infections, thus loss of spawning potential and subsequent distribution of larvae to up-estuary reefs. The three oyster populations in West Matagorda Bay provide spawning connectivity and function as an integrated resource for sustaining all oyster reef populations in this bay system. The model presented in this research provides a basis for understanding the population dynamics of WMB as well as a better understanding of the interaction among the reefs that sustain these populations. The model developed in this investigation provides a basis for developing oyster population models for other bay systems and for future research regarding hydrologic influences on oyster population dynamics.

Blue crabs are a widely distributed estuarine species with broad economic and ecological importance. Several studies have linked blue crabs to freshwater inflows, but the precise nature of this link is still uncertain, as blue crabs have a complex life cycle that utilizes both marine and estuarine environments. One potential link between blue crabs and freshwater inflows is during recruitment, when megalopae developing offshore return to estuaries before molting into juvenile crabs. Megalopae swim during the flood tide to ensure delivery into and farther up estuaries. The behaviors regulating selective tidal stream transport (STST) on the flood tide were originally studied in North Carolina in an estuary with regular freshwater inflows and a strong salinity gradient. The model of STST was re-examined in the Mission-Aransas, an estuary with episodic freshwater inflows and salinity gradients ranging from normal estuarine conditions to hypersaline during droughts. The behavioral responses of megalopae to a range of rates of salinity increase were tested, and then modeled onto rates of salinity change observed in the field to determine the theoretical ecological consequences of STST for blue crab populations in the Mission-Aransas Estuary. To validate the ecological trends predicted by the behavioral model of STST, a simple, long-term data set reflecting changes in megalopae abundance is needed. Hog’s hair collectors are a simple and widely used method of quantifying abundance of brachyuran megalopae, including blue crabs. However, the efficiency of hog’s hair collectors in sampling for megalopae is unknown. Several studies have reported poor correlations between settlement on hog’s hair collectors, transport, and abundance of megalopae in the plankton due to disparate temporal scales and potentially turbulence-driven decoupling. Each of these issues were addressed in field and flume experiments, which were used to develop a model for interpreting settlement on hog’s hair collectors in terms of transport and planktonic abundance. / text