Yeung, Ching. / Thesis (M.Phil.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 2013. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 32-34). / Electronic reproduction. Hong Kong : Chinese University of Hong Kong, [2012] System requirements: Adobe Acrobat Reader. Available via World Wide Web. / Abstracts also in Chinese.

In 1921, 1924 and 1929-1934, markets for the future delivery of wheat went through periods of extreme volatility and/or significant depression, and in all three cases there were significant and long-lasting changes to both the institutional and regulatory framework of these Chicago-dominated grain markets. There was no real change after these key reforms until 1974, while indeed much of the original regulatory and market innovation remains. The result of the severe depression of 1921 was the Futures Trading Act of 1921. In 1924-25, the so-called ‘Cutten corner’ market turmoil was followed by three key institutional innovations brought about in 1926 by US federal government coercion of the grain futures trading industry in collusion with industry leaders. The Great Depression gave birth to the 1936 Commodity Exchange Act. This Act was based on research done by the government and/or with government-mandated evidence that essentially saw the small grain gambler as needing protection from the grain futures industry, and was pushed through by a coalition of farmers’ organisations and the agency responsible for the 1922 Act’s administration. The government demanded information that was begrudgingly provided, and the studies of this data formed the basis of a political and intellectual justification of the usefulness of futures markets to the marketing of farm products that influenced the Act of 1936 and – more importantly - continues to today. My key thesis is that government worked closely with the futures industry to the extent that the agency was captured by special interests for much of the interwar period, and I claim that government intervention was responsible for the essential changes that assured the dominance of futures markets, with the Chicago Board of Trade as their hub. The lasting institutions created in the 1920s and 1930s continue to immensely influence the financial markets of today, including being incorporated into the Dodd-Frank Act of 2010. My study differs from the accepted account that sees federal regulation as an irrational ‘populist’ attempt at controlling or even banning the markets, with the new institutions developed during the interwar period as the result of effective industry self-regulation in spite of state interference. The findings are based on a theory-driven reading of archives of the Chicago Board of Trade, its regulator the Grain Futures Administration, and the other key government agencies engaging with the grain trade, the USDA, the Federal Farm Board and the Federal Trade Commission. The approach here differs from the accepted accounts in that it is based mostly on my archival work, including the newly reorganised (in 2014) Chicago Board of Trade archive, rather than on public sources such as Congressional hearings and newspaper stories.

China's futures market has undergone a significant structural change. It was a 'vertical silo' and now it is being developed into a 'horizontal' structure with Chinese characteristics. Such a change involves a series of changes in institutional arrangement. If researching the phenomenon when it was settled, the observation and, consequently, the conclusion would likely to see it was the state that had led the change. However, participated and observed through the change, this thesis is going to argue that the grassroots heroes, the practitioners from a marginalized sub-sector, have contributed significantly. The state is powerful and dominant whereas the regional exchanges leveraged their resources to corral the state and shape the institutional field. The focus of organizational and management studies can be roughly categorized as three dimensions: how changes occur within organizations, how the institutional environment shapes organizations and how organizations influence the sociocultural context within which they operate (Parsons, 1956). In the recent decades, organizational studies have made significant progress in the first two but little in the third (Barley, 2010). Research should progress in the third dimension regardless of the untidy and unaesthetic nature of the reality, as organizations have influenced the sociocultural context substantially. The purpose of this thesis is to contribute to the third dimension by arguing that institutional bricolage characterizes the process by which individuals and organizations change institutions to fulfil their purposes, be it changing the institutions, building a market or protesting the constraints imposed upon them. Institutional bricolage is the strategy, mentality and philosophy for grassroots heroes who have no political power but are still ambitious to have their voices heard and hence influence the change from the lower strata. The ideas in this paper are informed by the experience of China's futures market, where the researcher participated as a strategy manager for about a year. The organization in question is a regional exchange that previously had no place in China's official market structure and became legitimized as the outcome of a regulatory crackdown. This thesis, therefore, uncovers the underexplored part of China's financial market, the regional exchanges, and sheds light on China's institutional change.

Základy komoditního obchodování. Návod pro začínajícího komoditního obchodníka jak se rychle zorientovat v tradingu. Fungování futures kontraktů při využití margin a leverage. Využití technické a fundamentální analýzy v komoditním obchodování.

The thesis presents a critique of the nature of 13 to 15 year-old students' images of futures. Arguments are made for their importance to the individual community and culture and their value and use in a science learning setting.This study of the nature of futures images is based upon data collected from small samples in two school settings between 1990 and 1999 using a guided fantasy approach. The diversity of student hopes and fears for futures is categorised using several research tools developed from the futures literature. The results identify a range of futures scenarios ranging from highly utopic to highly dystopic and themes including human interactions, the natural and built environment and the nature and use of futuristic technologies.The importance of student images of futures is discussed from the personal perspective of the students and then considered in the broader context of society and Western culture. The data are examined through a number of theoretical frames including psychology, history and the futures field of enquiry. The consensus seems to be that expectations of the future are inseparable from human nature and influential in determining the viability of cultures.The value of student images of futures in science learning is explored through a case study of one of my own Year 9 classes. In teaching this class I used the technique of futures imaging integrated into a critical futures teaching approach utilising a constructivist planning model. I found that students' futures images revealed a broader aspect of student worldviews than is usual in science learning environments, and were valuable in exposing student prior knowledge, interests and concerns. Student learning seemed to be enhanced using this futures oriented approach.

Thesis (M. Phil.)--University of Hong Kong, 2006. / Title proper from title frame. Also available in printed format.

<p>The oil market is arguably the most influential commodity market in the world, in that it has an effect on all economic variables in one way or another. Due to oil’s central role in the world economy, it is of the utmost importance that all parts of society strive to increase the understanding of how the market works. This study has analysed the efficiency of the oil market in the period 1986 to 2008, with the efficient market hypothesis as the theoretical framework. Data on the prices of spot and futures contracts on crude and heating oil has been collected from the New York Mercantile Exchange, and tested for cointegration, with the underlying assumption being that cointegration is a sign of weak form efficiency. The results implies that the spot and futures prices have not been cointegrated during the studied period, and thus we conclude that the oil market has not behaved in accordance with the weak form of the efficient market hypothesis.</p>

<p>The main purpose of this thesis is to investigate what is the optimal futures-spot arbitrage strategy for China‘s stock index futures investment. Specifically, Index replication method and no-arbitrage pricing model are examined. We compare the different combinations of ETFs portfolio in mainland China with W.I.S.E-CSI 300 ETF in Hong Kong in three aspects including liquidity level, correlation of ETFs with underlying index, and tracking error of the replication methods. Then, we add several new parameters into interval pricing model to obtain a more accurate no-arbitrage band. As a result, we found that the portfolio of SSE 50 ETF, SZSE 100 ETF, and SSE Bonus ETF could provide the best tracking effect of CSI 300 Index, with different weight as 0.369, 0.403, and 0.19 in turn separately. Furthermore, the new modified pricing model could find out more arbitrage opportunities than interval pricing model especially for reverse cash-and-carry arbitrage. On the whole, the optimal arbitrage strategy for investment on CSI 300 Index futures consist of two steps, implement ETFs portfolio replicate CSI 300 Index and using new modified pricing model to discover and define arbitrage opportunities then to apply futures-spot arbitrage. At the end of thesis, we also give a small case study to illustrate how to exercise the arbitrage strategy in realistic situation.</p>

The main purpose of this thesis is to investigate what is the optimal futures-spot arbitrage strategy for China‘s stock index futures investment. Specifically, Index replication method and no-arbitrage pricing model are examined. We compare the different combinations of ETFs portfolio in mainland China with W.I.S.E-CSI 300 ETF in Hong Kong in three aspects including liquidity level, correlation of ETFs with underlying index, and tracking error of the replication methods. Then, we add several new parameters into interval pricing model to obtain a more accurate no-arbitrage band. As a result, we found that the portfolio of SSE 50 ETF, SZSE 100 ETF, and SSE Bonus ETF could provide the best tracking effect of CSI 300 Index, with different weight as 0.369, 0.403, and 0.19 in turn separately. Furthermore, the new modified pricing model could find out more arbitrage opportunities than interval pricing model especially for reverse cash-and-carry arbitrage. On the whole, the optimal arbitrage strategy for investment on CSI 300 Index futures consist of two steps, implement ETFs portfolio replicate CSI 300 Index and using new modified pricing model to discover and define arbitrage opportunities then to apply futures-spot arbitrage. At the end of thesis, we also give a small case study to illustrate how to exercise the arbitrage strategy in realistic situation.

The oil market is arguably the most influential commodity market in the world, in that it has an effect on all economic variables in one way or another. Due to oil’s central role in the world economy, it is of the utmost importance that all parts of society strive to increase the understanding of how the market works. This study has analysed the efficiency of the oil market in the period 1986 to 2008, with the efficient market hypothesis as the theoretical framework. Data on the prices of spot and futures contracts on crude and heating oil has been collected from the New York Mercantile Exchange, and tested for cointegration, with the underlying assumption being that cointegration is a sign of weak form efficiency. The results implies that the spot and futures prices have not been cointegrated during the studied period, and thus we conclude that the oil market has not behaved in accordance with the weak form of the efficient market hypothesis.