We examine recovery rates of defaulted bonds in the US corporate bond market, based on a complete set of traded prices and volumes. A study of the trading microstructure around various types of default events is provided. We document temporary price pressure with high trading volumes on the default day and the following 30 days, and low trading activity thereafter. Based on this analysis, we determine market-based recovery rates and quantify various liquidity measures. We study the relation between the recovery rates and these measures, considering additionally a comprehensive set of bond characteristics, firm fundamentals, and macroeconomic variables. (authors' abstract)

We show that, for a utility function U: R to R having reasonable asymptotic elasticity, the optimal investment process H. S is a super-martingale under each equivalent martingale measure Q, such that E[V(dQ/dP)] < "unendlich", where V is conjugate to U. Similar results for the special case of the exponential utility were recently obtained by Delbaen, Grandits, Rheinländer, Samperi, Schweizer, Stricker as well as Kabanov, Stricker. This result gives rise to a rather delicate analysis of the "good definition" of "allowed" trading strategies H for the financial market S. One offspring of these considerations leads to the subsequent - at first glance paradoxical - example. There is a financial market consisting of a deterministic bond and two risky financial assets (S_t^1, S_t^2)_0<=t<=T such that, for an agent whose preferences are modeled by expected exponential utility at time T, it is optimal to constantly hold one unit of asset S^1. However, if we pass to the market consisting only of the bond and the first risky asset S^1, and leaving the information structure unchanged, this trading strategy is not optimal any more: in this smaller market it is optimal to invest the initial endowment into the bond. (author's abstract) / Series: Working Papers SFB "Adaptive Information Systems and Modelling in Economics and Management Science"

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Made available in DSpace on 2016-04-26T20:48:38Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Lucas Lucio Godeiro.pdf: 2764843 bytes, checksum: c27a349337947bc5671ae909ca2237f6 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2012-10-30 / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / The work aim to test the CAPM for the Brazilian Shares Market using the static was beta and the dynamic beta. The sample used is composed for 28 shares of the Ibovespa index in March 21, 2012 and that was traded long the period researched, between 01/01/1995 and 20/03/2012. Was estimated the static and dynamic betas, and that the dynamics betas has a larger explication power on the cross section returns excess. It was found that the parameters that measure relative risk aversion were significant, indicating that an increase in volatility negatively affects the expected return of the agents / A pesquisa objetiva testar o CAPM para o mercado de ações brasileiro utilizando o beta estático e o beta dinâmico. A amostra utilizada é composta por 28 ações do índice Ibovespa em vinte de março de 2012 e que foram negociados durante todo o período pesquisado, que vai de 01/01/1995 a 20/03/2012. Foram estimados os betas estáticos e dinâmicos, sendo que os betas dinâmicos tem um maior poder de explicação sobre os excessos de retornos cross section. Também foi constatado que os parâmetros que medem aversão a risco relativa foram significantes, indicando que um aumento de volatilidade afeta de forma negativa o retorno esperado dos agentes

A large literature has related the failure of interest rate parity in the foreign exchange market to the existence of a time-varying risk premium. Nevertheless, most modern open economy DSGE models imply a (near) perfect interest rate parity condition. This paper presents a stylized two-country incomplete-markets model in which countries have strong precautionary motives because they face international liquidity constraints, the presence of which successfully generates a time-varying risk premium: the country that has accumulated debt after experiencing relative worse times has stronger precautionary motives and its asset carries a risk premium. (author's abstract) / Series: Department of Economics Working Paper Series

In this paper we forecast daily returns of crypto-currencies using a wide variety of different econometric models. To capture salient features commonly observed in financial time series like rapid changes in the conditional variance, non-normality of the measurement errors and sharply increasing trends, we develop a time-varying parameter VAR with t-distributed measurement errors and stochastic volatility. To control for overparameterization, we rely on the Bayesian literature on shrinkage priors that enables us to shrink coefficients associated with irrelevant predictors and/or perform model specification in a flexible manner. Using around one year of daily data we perform a real-time forecasting exercise and investigate whether any of the proposed models is able to outperform the naive random walk benchmark. To assess the economic relevance of the forecasting gains produced by the proposed models we moreover run a simple trading exercise.

A simple asset pricing model with two types of adaptively learning traders, fundamentalists and technical analysts, is studied. Fractions of these trader types, which are both boundedly rational, change over time according to evolutionary learning, with technical analysts conditioning their forecasting rule upon deviations from a benchmark fundamental. Volatility clustering arises endogenously in this model. Two mechanisms are proposed as an explanation. The first is coexistence of a stable steady state and a stable limit cycle, which arise as a consequence of a so-called Chenciner bifurcation of the system. The second is intermittency and associated bifurcation routes to strange attractors. Both phenomena are persistent and occur generically in nonlinear multi-agent evolutionary systems. (author's abstract) / Series: Working Papers SFB "Adaptive Information Systems and Modelling in Economics and Management Science"

We present a dynamic asset pricing model based on a heterogenous class of traders. These traders are homogenous in the sense that they are fundamentalists who base their investment decisions on an exogenoulsy given fundamental value. They are heterogenous in the sense that each trader is working with a different frequency of the underlying price data. As a result we have a system of interacting investors who together influence the market price. We derive a system that characterizes out-of-equilibrium dynamics of prices in this market which is structurally equivalent to the Nosé-Hoover thermostat equation in non-equilibrium thermodynamics. We explore the time series properties of these prices and find that they exhibit fat tails of returns distributions, volatility clustering and power laws. (author's abstract) / Series: Working Papers SFB "Adaptive Information Systems and Modelling in Economics and Management Science"

We prove a version of the Fundamental Theorem of Asset Pricing, which applies to Kabanov's approach to foreign exchange markets under transaction costs. The financial market is modelled by a d x d matrix-valued stochastic process Sigma_t_t=0^T specifying the mutual bid and ask prices between d assets. We introduce the notion of ``robust no arbitrage", which is a version of the no arbitrage concept, robust with respect to small changes of the bid ask spreads of Sigma_t_t=0^T. Dually, we interpret a concept used by Kabanov and his co-authors as "strictly consistent price systems". We show that this concept extends the notion of equivalent martingale measures, playing a well-known role in the frictionless case, to the present setting of bid-ask processes Sigma_t_t=0^T. The main theorem states that the bid-ask process Sigma_t_t=0^T satisfies the robust no arbitrage condition if it admits a strictly consistent pricing system. This result extends the theorems of Harrison-Pliska and Dalang-Morton-Willinger to the present setting, and also generalizes previous results obtained by Kabanov, Rasonyi and Stricker. An example of a 5-times-5-dimensional process Sigma_t_t=0^2 shows that, in this theorem, the robust no arbitrage condition cannot be replaced by the so-called strict no arbitrage condition, thus answering negatively a question raised by Kabanov, Rasonyi and Stricker. (author's abstract) / Series: Working Papers SFB "Adaptive Information Systems and Modelling in Economics and Management Science"

Following [10] we continue the study of the problem of expected utility maximization in incomplete markets. Our goal is to find minimal conditions on a model and a utility function for the validity of several key assertions of the theory to hold true. In [10] we proved that a minimal condition on the utility function alone, i.e. a minimal market independent condition, is that the asymptotic elasticity of the utility function is strictly less than 1. In this paper we show that a necessary and sufficient condition on both, the utility function and the model, is that the value function of the dual problem is finite. (authors' abstract) / Series: Working Papers SFB "Adaptive Information Systems and Modelling in Economics and Management Science"