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The application of game theory in capacity investment planning.January 1998 (has links)
by Jan, Ting-Wai and Ng, To-Tung. / Thesis (M.B.A.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 1998. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 66-67). / ABSTRACT --- p.i / TABLE OF CONTENTS --- p.ii / LIST OF FIGURES --- p.iv / LIST OF TABLES --- p.v / CHAPTER / Chapter I --- INTRODUCTION --- p.1 / Objective --- p.1 / The Industrial Gases Industry --- p.1 / The Products --- p.2 / Competition within an Industrial Park --- p.3 / A SCENARIO IN THE INDUSTRY --- p.3 / Chapter II --- DESIGN OF THE GAME --- p.4 / The Environment --- p.4 / The Time Line --- p.5 / The Game in Extensive Form --- p.7 / Chapter III --- EVALUATION OF THE EXPECTED PAYOFFS --- p.10 / Payoff criterion: Net Present Value Vs Internal Rate of Return --- p.10 / Calculation of Payoffs at End Nodes --- p.12 / Cash Flow Assumptions --- p.13 / The Product Selling Price --- p.13 / Utilities Consumption in Relation to Plant Utilization --- p.14 / Chapter IV --- ANALYSIS OF THE GAME --- p.16 / The First Iteration --- p.16 / The Right Side of the Tree --- p.17 / The Left Side of the Tree --- p.18 / Payoffs of Portion A (Investment Options) --- p.19 / If Firm F2 sells at Year -1 --- p.20 / Is It a Fair Deal for Firm F1 at Node 4? --- p.21 / Can Firm F2 Increase Its Payoff at Year -1 ? --- p.22 / Determine a New Product Selling Price Between Firms F1 and F2 --- p.24 / Revised Expected Payoffs for Nodes 6 to 9 at Year-1 --- p.25 / The second Iteration (Final Outcome) --- p.27 / Risk if Firms Make Irrational Decisions --- p.27 / Chapter V --- INDUSTRY PRACTICE IN LONG TERM CAPACITY PLANNING --- p.29 / The Decision Tree of Firm F1 --- p.29 / The Decision Tree of Firm F2 --- p.30 / The Implications of Making Decisions Based on Individual Decision Trees --- p.31 / By Firm F1 and F2 --- p.31 / Chapter VI --- CONCLUSION --- p.33 / APPENDIX A SUMMARY OF ASSUMPTIONS IN CASH FLOW --- p.34 / APPENDIX B SUMMARY OF CASH FLOW FOR VARIOUS PAYOFFS AT FIRST ITERATION --- p.35 / APPENDIX C SUMMARY OF CASH FLOW FOR VARIOUS PAYOFFS FOR FINAL OUTCOME --- p.55 / BIBLIOGRAPHY --- p.66
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