Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of Missouri-Columbia, 2008. / The entire dissertation/thesis text is included in the research.pdf file; the official abstract appears in the short.pdf file (which also appears in the research.pdf); a non-technical general description, or public abstract, appears in the public.pdf file. Title from title screen of research.pdf file (viewed on August 4, 2009) Vita. Includes bibliographical references.

This thesis explores metric properties of Liouville quantum gravity (LQG), a random geometry with conformal symmetries introduced in the context of string theory by Polyakov in the 80’s. Formally, it corresponds to the Riemannian metric tensor “e^{γh}(dx² + dy²)” where h is a planar Gaussian free field and γ is a parameter in (0, 2). Since h is a random Schwartz distribution with negative regularity, the exponential e^{γh} only makes sense formally and the associated volume form and distance functions are not well-defined. The mathematical language to define the volume form was introduced by Kahane, also in the 80’s. In this thesis, we explore a renormalization approach to make sense of the distance function and we study its basic properties.

Recently, Bayesian methods have become the essence of modern statistics, specifically, the ability to incorporate hierarchical models. In particular, correlated data, such as the data found in spatial and temporal applications, have benefited greatly from the development and application of Bayesian statistics. One particular application of Bayesian modeling is Gaussian Markov Random Fields. These methods have proven to be very useful in providing a framework for correlated data. I will demonstrate the power of GMRFs by applying this method to two sets of data; a set of temporal data involving car accidents in the UK and a set of spatial data involving Provo area apartment complexes. For the first set of data, I will examine how including a seatbelt covariate effects our estimates for the number of car accidents. In the second set of data, we will scrutinize the effect of BYU approval on apartment complexes. In both applications we will investigate Laplacian approximations when normal distribution assumptions do not hold.

A long term record of the earth's vegetation is important in studies of global climate change. Over the last three decades, multiple data sets on vegetation have been collected using different satellite-based sensors. There is a need for methods that combine these data into a long term earth system data record. The Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) has provided reflectance measures of the entire earth since 1978. Physical and statistical models have been used to improve the consistency and reliability of this record. The Moderated Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) has provided measurements with superior radiometric properties and geolocation accuracy. However, this record is available only since 2000. In this thesis, we perform statistical calibration of AVHRR to MODIS. We aim to: (1) fill in gaps in the ongoing MODIS record; (2) extend MODIS values back to 1982. We propose Bayesian mixed models to predict MODIS values using snow cover and AVHRR values as covariates. Random effects are used to account for spatiotemporal correlation in the data. We estimate the parameters based on the data after 2000, using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. We then back-predict MODIS data between 1978 and 1999, using the posterior samples of the parameter estimates. We develop new Conditional Autoregressive (CAR) models for seasonal data. We also develop new sampling methods for CAR models. Our approach enables filling in gaps in the MODIS record and back-predicting these values to construct a consistent historical record. The Bayesian framework incorporates multiple sources of variation in estimating the accuracy of the obtained data. The approach is illustrated using vegetation data over a region in Minnesota.

Dissertation (Ph.D.)--Auburn University, 2007. / Abstract. Vita. Includes bibliographic references (p.111-117).

Thesis advisor: Cowles, Mary K. Includes bibliographic references (p. 167-172).

Abstract We are interested in studying Gaussian Markov random fields as correlation priors for Bayesian inversion. We construct the correlation priors to be discretisation-invariant, which means, loosely speaking, that the discrete priors converge to continuous priors at the discretisation limit. We construct the priors with stochastic partial differential equations, which guarantees computational efficiency via sparse matrix approximations. The stationary correlation priors have a clear statistical interpretation through the autocorrelation function. We also consider how to make structural model of an unknown object with anisotropic and inhomogeneous Gaussian Markov random fields. Finally we consider these fields on unstructured meshes, which are needed on complex domains. The publications in this thesis contain fundamental mathematical and computational results of correlation priors. We have considered one application in this thesis, the electrical impedance tomography. These fundamental results and application provide a platform for engineers and researchers to use correlation priors in other inverse problem applications.

Discrete exponential families have drawn a lot of attention in probability, statistics, and machine learning, both classically and in the recent literature. This thesis studies in depth two discrete exponential families of concrete interest, (i) Exponential Random Graph Models (ERGMs) and (ii) Ising Models. In the ERGM setting, this thesis consider a “degree corrected” version of standard ERGMs, and in the Ising model setting, this thesis focus on Ising models on dense regular graphs, both from the point of view of statistical inference. The first part of the thesis studies the problem of testing for sparse signals present on the vertices of ERGMs. It proposes computably efficient tests for a wide class of ERGMs. Focusing on the two star ERGM, it shows that the tests studied are “asymptotically efficient” in all parameter regimes except one, which is referred to as “critical point”. In the critical regime, it is shown that improved detection is possible. This shows that compared to the standard belief, in this setting dependence is actually beneficial to the inference problem. The main proof idea for analyzing the two star ERGM is a correlations estimate between degrees under local alternatives, which is possibly of independent interest. In the second part of the thesis, we derive the limit of experiments for a class of one parameter Ising models on dense regular graphs. In particular, we show that the limiting experiment is Gaussian in the “low temperature” regime, non Gaussian in the “critical” regime, and an infinite collection of Gaussians in the “high temperature” regime. We also derive the limiting distributions of commonlt studied estimators, and study limiting power for tests of hypothesis against contiguous alternatives (whose scaling changes across the regimes). To the best of our knowledge, this is the first attempt at establishing the classical limits of experiments for Ising models (and more generally, Markov random fields).