Many trade and development economists, policy makers and policy analysts around the world believe that globalisation promotes growth and reduces poverty. There exists a large body of theoretical and empirical literature on how trade liberalisation helps to promote growth and reduce poverty. However, critics of globalisation argue that, in developing countries, integration into the world economy makes the poor poorer and the rich richer. The most common criticism of globalisation is that it increases poverty and inequality. Much of the research related to the link between openness, growth and poverty has been based on cross-country regressions. Dollar and Kraay (2000; 2001), using regression analysis, argue that growth is pro poor. Moreover, their study suggests that growth does not affect distribution and poor as well as rich could benefit from it. Later, they demonstrate that openness to international trade stimulates rapid growth, thus linking trade liberalisation with improvements in wellbeing of the poor. Several other cross-country studies demonstrate a positive relationship between trade openness and economic growth (see for example Dollar, 1992; Sach and Warner, 1995 and Edward, 1998). In contrast, Rodriguez and Rodrik (2001) question the measurements related to trade openness in economic models, and suggest that generalisations cannot be made regarding the relationship between trade openness and growth. Several other studies also criticise the pro poor growth argument based upon the claim of weak econometrics and place more focus on the distributional aspect (see, for example, Rodrik, 2000). Ultimately, openness and growth have therefore become an empirical matter, and so has the relationship between trade and poverty. These weaknesses of cross-country studies have led to a need to provide evidence from case studies. Systematic case studies related to individual countries will at least complement cross-country studies such as that of Dollar and Kraay. As Chen and Ravallion (2004, p.30) argue, 'aggregate inequality or poverty may not change with trade reform even though there are gainers and losers at all levels of living'. They further argue that policy analysis which simply averages across diversities may miss important matters that are critical to the policy debate. In this study, Sri Lanka is used as a case study and a computable general equilibrium (CGE) approach is adopted as an analytical framework. Sri Lanka was selected as an interesting case in point to investigate this linkage for the following reasons: although Sri Lanka was the first country in the South Asian region to liberalise its trade substantially in the late seventies, it still experiences an incidence of poverty of a sizeable proportion that cannot be totally attributed to the long-standing civil conflict. Moreover, trade poverty linkage within the Sri Lankan context has hardly received any attention, while multi-sectoral general equilibrium poverty analysis within the Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) based CGE model has never been attempted. In order to examine the link between globalisation and poverty, a poverty focussed CGE model for the Sri Lankan economy has been developed in this study. As a requirement for the development of such a model, a SAM of the Sri Lankan economy for the year 1995 has been constructed. Moreover, in order to estimate the intra group income distribution in addition to the inter group income distribution, income distribution functional forms for different household groups have been empirically estimated and linked to the CGE model in 'top down' mode: this will compute a wide range of household level poverty and inequality measurements. This is a significant departure from the traditional representative agent hypothesis used to specifying household income distributions. Furthermore, as the general equilibrium framework permits endogenised prices, an attempt was made to endogenise the change in money metric poverty line within the CGE model. Finally, a set of simulation experiments was conducted to identify the impacts of trade liberalisation in manufacturing and agricultural industries on absolute and relative poverty at household level. The results show that, in the short run, trade liberalisation of manufacturing industries increases economic growth and reduces absolute poverty in low-income household groups. However, it is observed that the potential benefits accruing to the rural low-income group are relatively low compared to other two low-income groups. Reduction in the flow of government transfers to households following the loss of tariff revenue may be blamed for this trend. In contrast, long run results indicate that trade liberalisation reduces absolute poverty in substantial proportion in all groups. It further reveals that, in the long run, liberalisation of the manufacturing industries is more pro poor than that of the agricultural industries. Overall simulation results suggest that trade reforms may widen the income gap between the rich and the poor, thus promoting relative poverty. This may warrant active interventions with respect to poverty alleviation activities following trade policy reforms.

This doctoral dissertation presents evidence based research into climate change policy. The research technique of political economy is used to investigate policy development. A major change in the Anglo-American growth paradigm from unconstrained to constrained growth is identified. The implications of this change for climate change policy are identified. The political economy of climate change policies is expressed in a new Spatial Climate Economic Policy Tool for Regional Equilibria (Sceptre). This is an innovative bechmarking approach to computable general equilibrium (CGE) that provides a spatial analysis of geopolitical blocs and industry groupings within these blocs. It includes international markets for carbon commodities and geophysical climate effects. It is shown that climate constrained growth raises local policy issues in managing technology diffusion and dysfunctional resource expansive specialisations exacerbated by the creation of global carbon markets.

This doctoral dissertation presents evidence based research into climate change policy. The research technique of political economy is used to investigate policy development. A major change in the Anglo-American growth paradigm from unconstrained to constrained growth is identified. The implications of this change for climate change policy are identified. The political economy of climate change policies is expressed in a new Spatial Climate Economic Policy Tool for Regional Equilibria (Sceptre). This is an innovative bechmarking approach to computable general equilibrium (CGE) that provides a spatial analysis of geopolitical blocs and industry groupings within these blocs. It includes international markets for carbon commodities and geophysical climate effects. It is shown that climate constrained growth raises local policy issues in managing technology diffusion and dysfunctional resource expansive specialisations exacerbated by the creation of global carbon markets.

<p>The dissertation consists of three self-contained essays on Public Finance.</p><p>“News Droughts, News Floods and U.S. Disaster Relief” studies the mass media's influence on the U.S. government response to about 5,000 natural disasters in developing countries in 1968-2002. These disasters took around 63,000 lives and affected 125 million people per year. Given the huge losses involved, it is essential that disaster relief is provided to those most in need. We show that U.S. disaster relief depends on the occurrence of other newsworthy events at the time of the disaster, such as the Olympic Games or the O.J. Simpson Trial, which are obviously unrelated to need. We argue that the only plausible explanation for this is that relief decisions are driven by news coverage of disasters, and that this news coverage is crowded out by other newsworthy events.</p><p>“Fiscal Policy and Retirement in the Twentieth Century” proposes a model that explains the trend in labor supply among older workers through changes in fiscal policy, including social security. The essay re-introduces social security as a major determinant of retirement behavior, while simultaneously offering an explanation to the two main puzzles in the literature: (i) the small contemporary retirement elasticities and (ii) the drop in the retirement age prior to the introduction of social security.</p><p>“Sustainable Fiscal Policy and the Retirement Decision” concerns the sustainability of fiscal policy in aging economies and the retirement decision. The essay develops an applied general equilibrium model, where the retirement age is endogenous and current fiscal policy is a response to future demographic developments. Three policies are analyzed: (1) raising taxes (2) reducing the replacement rate and (3) raising the Full Retirement Age. All policies are found to have a substantial impact on retirement. Sustaining fiscal policy will result in falling interest rates, inducing a general delay in retirement. This general equilibrium effect on retirement can be substantially larger than the direct effect of changing social security incentives.</p>

This thesis is a contribution to the analysis of the relationship between the economic growth and the usage of non-renewable energy resources. More precisely, it is studied the conditions under which energy-saving technologies can sustain long-run growth, even if energy is mainly produced by means of non-renewable energy resources, such as fossil fuels. A general equilibrium framework is considered, giving special attention to the dynamical properties of the economy. In accordance with the well-known debate of complementarity vs. substitutability between physical capital and energy as production inputs, this thesis is divided into two parts. The first part of this thesis assumes complementarity between physical capital and energy as production inputs, which captures the idea of the existence of a minimum energy requirement to use a machine. Even if in contrast with the standard literature on non-renewable energy resources, which assumes substitutability, the assumption of complementarity is indeed supported by various empirical studies. This relationship of complementarity allows one to introduce the assumption of different generations of machines coexisting in each period by adding a new variable to the firm's problem: physical capital replacement. In this first part of the thesis, it is provided a theoretical study of physical capital replacement, i.e., vintage effect, which is an important environmental policy when new machines are assumed to be more energy-saving. Following the standard literature on non-renewable energy resources, this second part of the thesis assumes substitutability between capital and energy. This branch of the literature gives central position to physical capital accumulation to offset the constraint on production possibilities due to use of non-renewable energy resources. This literature assumes the same technology for both physical capital accumulation and consumption, which implies (among other things) that the energy intensity of both sectors is the same. However, data do not support this implication and suggest that physical capital accumulation is relatively more energy-intensive than consumption. Following that, this second part of the thesis studies the implications of this hypothesis.

The dissertation consists of three self-contained essays on Public Finance. “News Droughts, News Floods and U.S. Disaster Relief” studies the mass media's influence on the U.S. government response to about 5,000 natural disasters in developing countries in 1968-2002. These disasters took around 63,000 lives and affected 125 million people per year. Given the huge losses involved, it is essential that disaster relief is provided to those most in need. We show that U.S. disaster relief depends on the occurrence of other newsworthy events at the time of the disaster, such as the Olympic Games or the O.J. Simpson Trial, which are obviously unrelated to need. We argue that the only plausible explanation for this is that relief decisions are driven by news coverage of disasters, and that this news coverage is crowded out by other newsworthy events. “Fiscal Policy and Retirement in the Twentieth Century” proposes a model that explains the trend in labor supply among older workers through changes in fiscal policy, including social security. The essay re-introduces social security as a major determinant of retirement behavior, while simultaneously offering an explanation to the two main puzzles in the literature: (i) the small contemporary retirement elasticities and (ii) the drop in the retirement age prior to the introduction of social security. “Sustainable Fiscal Policy and the Retirement Decision” concerns the sustainability of fiscal policy in aging economies and the retirement decision. The essay develops an applied general equilibrium model, where the retirement age is endogenous and current fiscal policy is a response to future demographic developments. Three policies are analyzed: (1) raising taxes (2) reducing the replacement rate and (3) raising the Full Retirement Age. All policies are found to have a substantial impact on retirement. Sustaining fiscal policy will result in falling interest rates, inducing a general delay in retirement. This general equilibrium effect on retirement can be substantially larger than the direct effect of changing social security incentives.

LVT (Land Value Tax), unlike other taxes, causes no distortions in economic decision-making and therefore does not compromise the efficiency of a market economy. While there have been various challenges to this conclusion, it seems that the neutrality of LVT has been proven in the literature. Although it has been established conceptually that LVT is non-distortive, it is important to empirically test the effects of LVT reform in diverse aspects. Unlike other studies, this dissertation examines the economic, spatial, and welfare effects of LVT reform in a second-best situation employing an urban (and spatial) CGE (Computable General Equilibrium) model. In addition, it examines the distributional effects among different income groups and the short-term aspects of LVT as well. The feature that the present dissertation incorporates as the second-best situation includes LLZ (Large Lot Zoning). The computation and the assumptions about parameters for the current CGE model are made based on demographic, physical, and economic features of the Atlanta urban area in Georgia. The results suggest the following: (1) LVT reform is economically feasible, (2) the tax on land rent stabilizes prices and contracts the CBD (Central Business District) and urban boundary in the economy where the CBD and urban area are endogenously determined, while the tax on land rent is purely neutral in the economy where the CBD and urban area are fixed, (3) LVT reform increases the money-metric welfare of residents by about 20% of the tax revenue in the economy where residents are landowners, while LVT reform increases the money-metric welfare of residents by about 45% of the tax revenue in the economy where the lands are owned by absentee, (4) LVT reform more increases the money-metric welfare of the less-income groups that own the smaller land area, which is contrary to the case of LLZ, (5) LLZ and property tax can cause the sprawl of an urban area, but at a very low elasticity of substitution between land and the other factors (0.1), even switching from the land tax to the property tax (or graded property tax) can contract the urban area, (6) LLZ, in the long-term during which housing capital and urban boundary are not fixed and in the economy where residents are landowners, can improve the welfare of households, while LLZ worsens the welfare of households both in the economy where the lands are owned by absentee and in the short-term during which housing capital is immobile in any economy, (7) When we consider that housing capital is immobile, the increase in the money-metric welfare due to LVT reform becomes weak, compared to the case with perfectly mobile housing capital.

The objective of this dissertation is to develop a model to examine the concept of a “worldwide” tax burden. The notion is that due to differential mobility of factors developed nations may be passing on a share of their tax burden to less developed countries while effectively indulging in a form of tax competition. This is important for many reasons especially since it may affect the distribution of income between countries, and influence the flow of capital. As globalization increases, “the race to the bottom” in taxation (which implies tax-cutting) suggests that these spillovers should be reduced over time. The traditional view of taxation implies that taxation imposes an excess burden and increasing most types of taxes will increase this burden. But for whom does this burden increase? Are developed countries passing on a burden to locations that are less able to shift the burden forward? If this phenomenon of tax spillovers can be quantified, we can examine the extent and nature of shifting of the tax burden. Using a version of the famous general equilibrium model first developed by Prof Harberger in 1962, we analyze the extent of tax spillovers in the presence of a public input in an open economy setting. We model two different taxes, the Capital Income Tax and a Consumption Tax and two different types of expenditure patterns, a government input and a transfer payment. The dissertation answers the following research questions: • Can the extent of tax spillovers be quantified using a general equilibrium model that is not dependent on functional forms? • Does the extent of spillovers depend on the type of tax used? • Does the extent of spillovers depend on the use to which the taxes are put? • What are the policy implications? We find that the tax cutting economy can gain from cutting a distorting tax only when the expenditure pattern is neutral, while imposing a cost to the rest of the world in terms of sources and uses of GDP. When revenues are used to provide productive public goods; neither country gains from tax cuts that lower inputs.

This paper deals with the effects of minimum wages on human capital accumulation, and steady state employment and growth. The minimum wage is introduced in a model of endogenous growth driven by human capital accumulation. Unemployed agents maximize utility given the information that they are unemployed facing changed budget constraints. This situation is implemented in a "non-market-clearing equilibrium" framework. We show that the steady state rate of growth is not affected by the minimum wage and that in the steady state the system yields full employment. These effects are generated by intertemporal adjustments of the employed households who re-act to the relatively higher minimum wage which increases skills accumulation. (author's abstract) / Series: Department of Economics Working Paper Series

<p>This dissertation investigates the non-market value of environmental quality in several contexts with attention paid to equilibrium effects. Chapter One contributes to the ongoing debate concerning the effect of various actions taken by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency under CERCLA, commonly known as the Superfund Program, on housing prices. The study differs from national sample analyses and site-specific analyses by providing policy-relevant estimates of the hedonic price function in a particular region for the average site. Further, an estimate of the effect on housing prices is given for each of the major events that occur under a typical Superfund remediation. Using house and time-varying census tract fixed effects, I find a 7.3% increase in sales price for houses within 3 km of a site that moves through the complete Superfund program. The analysis gives evidence of positive price appreciation for housing markets and serves as a lower bound for measuring remediation benefits. Chapter Two proposes a new dynamic general equilibrium model of residential location choice with social spillovers and uses it to evaluate the equilibrium consequences of changes in pollution exposure. In particular, I investigate the hypothesis of ``minority move-in,'' which postulates that disproportionate exposure to pollution results from minorities and low-income households trading off such exposure for lower housing costs. Second, I address the question of whether economic incentives caused by differences in willingness to pay across socioeconomic status can explain why polluters disproportionately locate near disadvantaged populations in order to minimize expenses from collective action bargaining over the negative externality. Simulations indicate ``minority move-in'' likely does account for some of the imbalance in exposure to pollution across socioeconomic status. Further, general equilibrium estimates reveal that equilibrium sorting behavior widens the gap in willingness to pay for environmental quality between minority and white households, and between high and low-income households. The disparity in general equilibrium willingness to pay to avoid toxic emissions provides economic incentives for polluters to target disadvantaged populations. Chapter Three investigates how information contained in the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Toxic Release Inventory program affects prices in the housing market. First, I use a reduction in the reporting requirement threshold in 2001 as a quasi-experiment to determine whether prices change for existing firms who, as a result of the change, must report. Second, the existence of a reporting threshold creates a discontinuity in treatment than can be exploited. I estimate a regression discontinuity model that assumes that site unobservables are balanced in a neighborhood of the discontinuity. Using a difference-in-differences estimator for the first specification, I find that listing a site in the Toxic Release Inventory lowers prices by 3.1% within a three kilometer radius of the site, and that the effect is stronger at shorter distances. The regression discontinuity model produces qualitatively similar results that are smaller in magnitude but still significant. The results suggest that households to capitalize the information contained in the Toxic Release Inventory. However, since the treatment sites under consideration have virtually no emissions, these results do not contradict previous findings in the literature that toxic air emissions are unrelated to prices. Rather, they suggest that households might be concerned about the dangers of toxic chemicals that might result from an emergency or catastrophic accident.</p> / Dissertation