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  • About
  • The Global ETD Search service is a free service for researchers to find electronic theses and dissertations. This service is provided by the Networked Digital Library of Theses and Dissertations.
    Our metadata is collected from universities around the world. If you manage a university/consortium/country archive and want to be added, details can be found on the NDLTD website.
1

Modelling Human Risk of West Nile Virus Using Surveillance and Environmental Data

Mallya, Shruti January 2017 (has links)
Limited research has been performed in Ontario to ascertain risk factors for West Nile Virus (WNV) and to develop a unified risk prediction strategy. The aim of the current body of work was to use spatio-temporal modelling in conjunction with surveillance and environmental data to determine which pre-WNV season factors could forecast a high risk season and to explore how well mosquito surveillance data could predict human cases in space and time during the WNV season. Generalized linear mixed modelling found that mean minimum monthly temperature variables and annual WNV-positive mosquito pools were most significantly predictive of number of human WNV cases (p<0.001). Spatio-temporal cluster analysis found that positive mosquito pool clusters could predict human case clusters up to one month in advance. These results demonstrate the usefulness of mosquito surveillance data as well as publicly available climate data for assessing risk and informing public health practice.

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