Enrollment projections are used by school administrators to predict the number of students expected to attend a school district within a defined period of time. This dissertation examines methods used for making enrollment projections and seeks to improve these methods through the application of geographic principles. The presented thesis challenges the existing aspatial framework used to calculate grade progression rates, arguing that a spatial framework improves projection accuracy. Grade progression rates are the critical element in enrollment projections and this dissertation's major contribution is the analysis of four different grade progression rate calculations at the school district level. This dissertation also argues that grade progression rates represent spatial relationships of migration that exist between adjacent school districts and uses these spatial relationships to create a new spatial Bayesian approach. This dissertation demonstrates that geographic methods can be successfully integrated to improve enrollment project accuracy through the reduction of the small number problem. In addition, this research identifies the importance of smoothing effects of the modified cohort progression method when compared to Bayesian approaches.

Orientador: José Tadeu Garcia Tommaselli / Banca: Antonio Cezar Leal / Banca: Encarnita Salas Martin / Banca: Rafael de Oliveira Tiezzi / Banca: João Paulo Peres Bezerra / Resumo: A questão dos resíduos sólidos, seu gerenciamento e a disposição ambientalmente adequada, configura-se como um dos sérios problemas ambientais que necessitam de soluções. A SABESP, na prestação de seus serviços de abastecimento de água e coleta, afastamento e tratamento de esgotos se caracteriza por ser uma grande geradora e, não foge à regra, de ter que apresentar soluções para essa questão. O presente estudo teve como objetivo o levantamento de informações, o entendimento da questão e a apresentação de propostas para a melhoria no gerenciamento dos resíduos sólidos, buscando ainda incorporar os conhecimentos das ciências geográficas em sua formulação, com vistas a reduzir custos financeiros, ainda que não seja possível quantificá-los com precisão, e fomentar os ganhos econômicos, possíveis de serem atingidos com a implantação dessas ações em médio e longo prazos. Para tal foram estimadas as populações para os 62 municípios até o ano de 2037, bem como a geração de lodo de ETA, ETE, material gradeado e areia, sendo apresentadas propostas para cada uma das fases do gerenciamento de resíduos sólidos. Estimando-se, por fim, a economia de recursos financeiros que a implantação das propostas ocasionaria / Abstract: The question of solid waste, iT management and the environmentally appropriate disposal, is one of the serious environmental problems that need solutions. SABESP, in the provision of iT water supply and collection, sewage disposal and sewage treatment services, is characterized by being a great generator and, it is not without the rule, of having to present solutions to this question. The objective of this study was to gather information, understand the issue and present proposals for the improvement of solid waste management, while also seeking to incorporate the knowledge of the geographic sciences in iT formulation, with a view to reducing financial cosT, even though It is not possible to quantify them with precision, and to foster the economic gains that can be achieved by implementing these actions in the medium and long term. For this purpose, the populations for the 62 municipalities were estimated up to the year 2037, as well as the generation of ETA, ETE, gravel material and sand, and proposals for each phase of solid waste management were presented. Lastly, we estimate the savings of financial resources that the implementation of the proposals would cause / Doutor