Zugl.: Göttingen, Univ., Diss., 2007

Bielefeld, University, Diss., 2001.

We modify the concept of consistent expectations equilibria introduced in Hommes and Sorger (1998) in two ways: (i) the consistency condition requires that the probability that the agents reject their perceived law of motion in any period does not exceed a given level and (ii) there may exist exogenous stochastic shocks. The concept is illustrated by two examples using a linear economic system. In one of the examples consistency implies rational expectations, in the other example it does not. (authors' abstract) / Series: Working Papers SFB "Adaptive Information Systems and Modelling in Economics and Management Science"

Zugl.: Giessen, Univ., Diss., 2006

Zugl.: Mainz, Univ., Diss., 2006

Zugl.: Mannheim, University, Diss., 2006.

University, Diss., 2005--Frankfurt (Main).

This paper presents the concept of numerical CGE modeling with the help of a 2-country general equilibrium model. In the framework of this simple dynamic monetary model the effects of a (unilateral) monetary and fiscal expansion are simulated. The exchange rate of the home vis-à-vis the foreign currency depreciates in response to both types of shocks. The monetary expansion leads to an increase in home relative to foreign private consumption and to a sharp increase in relative home output in the short run, while in the long run output increases in the foreign country and decreases in the home country. The unilateral fiscal expansion, on the other hand, results in a fall of private consumption in the home relative to the foreign country, and in an increase in relative home output in the short as well as in the long run. The world real interest rate falls quite substantially in response to both shocks. (author's abstract) / Series: Department of Economics Working Paper Series

Cities are usually confronted with a large variety of economic development choices. With growing environmental concern as well as rising income and wealth inequalities, assessment of the impacts of such choices is likely to gain in importance. Consequently, the demand for adequate assessment tools will grow. Computable general equilibrium (CGE) models analyze issues of resource allocation and income distribution in market economies. They have become a widely accepted tool for policy assessment over the past two decades but are currently still primarily a field for specialists. This is particularly distinctive in the case of urban CGE models, which are the focus of this paper. (author's abstract) / Series: SRE - Discussion Papers

Aufbauend auf einem klassischen Finanzmarktmodell behandeln wir drei Modellvarianten, die jeweils einen anderen Ansatz der (heterogenen) Erwartungsbildung von Investoren über künftige Wertpapierpreise in den Vordergrund der Betrachtungen rücken: das Konzept der konsistenten Erwartungen, das Konzept der "Adaptive Belief Systeme" und künstliche Finanzmärkte, wo die Modellierung der Erwartungsbildung mittels "Classifier Systemen" erfolgt. Wir untersuchen, welche Auswirkungen diese unterschiedlichen Mechanismen der Erwartungsbildung auf die Gleichgewichtsdynamik von Wertpapierkursen haben und vergleichen statistische Eigenschaften von Renditen der mittels dieser Modelle generierten Kurszeitreihen mit jenen realer Daten. / Series: Working Papers SFB "Adaptive Information Systems and Modelling in Economics and Management Science"