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This thesis examines the cultural consumption of the Korean music video Gangnam Style in the broader context of the increasing popularity of Korean popular content, often called the Korean Wave, and of complex conditions of transnational consumption. Specifically, it investigates why the music video Gangnam Style gained popularity not only in East Asia but also over the world, how it is circulated, and what conditions contribute to its success. It focuses on the role of the networked audiences and the interactions between the networked audiences and mainstream media through a chronological analysis on the distribution and reproduction process of Gangnam Style on YouTube. Through the case study of Gangman Style, this thesis attempts to rethink the established globalization theories and to suggest new perspective of cultural circulation in the globalized and digitalized media environment.

Title: Modelling of global ocean circulation and ocean-induced magnetic field Author: Libor Šachl Department: Department of geophysics Supervisor: prof. RNDr. Zdeněk Martinec, DrSc., Department of geophysics Abstract: The ocean modelling community commonly use several renown ocean general circulation models (OGCMs) such as NEMO, MOM and FESOM. These models have been developed by research groups for many years, which resulted in complex mathematical and numerical algorithms. There are geophysically rele- vant problems, such as the glacial isostatic adjustment, in which the global ocean plays an important role. Ocean circulation does not need to be modeled extremely complex, but other phenomena such as time changing geometry of ocean domain needs to be considered. Geophysical applications motivated us to develop a new OGCM called LSOMG. The LSOMG model is not meant to substitute the ex- isting OGCMs but to provide a modelling framework for geophysical rather than purely oceanographic applications. LSOMG is a 3-D baroclinic ocean model fully parallelized using the MPI standard. It is forced by atmospheric fluxes (wind stresses, heat fluxes, etc.) but also by tides. The model can be run in a simplified 2-D barotropic version if 3-D effects can be neglected. LSOMG was tested in a series of simplified...

The Georgia General Assembly, like many states, has enacted pre-defined, comprehensive, drought-mitigation apparatus, but they need rainfall outlooks. Global circulation models (GCMs) provide rainfall outlooks, but they are too spatially course for jurisdictional impact assessment. To wed these efforts, spatially averaged, time-smoothed, daily precipitation observations from the National Weather Service cooperative network are fitted to eight points of 700 mbar atmospheric data from the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis Project for climate downscaling and drought prediction in the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint (ACF) river basin. The domain is regionalized with a factor analysis to create specialized models. All models complied well with mathematical assumptions, though the residuals were somewhat skewed and flattened. All models had an R-squared > 0.2. The models revealed map points to the south to be especially influential. A leave-one-out cross-validation showed the models to be unbiased with a percent error of < 20%. Atmospheric parameters are estimated for 2008–2011 with GCMs and empirical extrapolations. The transfer function was invoked on both these data sets for drought predictions. All models and data indicate drought especially for 2010 and especially in the south.

Water resource planning and management practices in the southeastern United States may be vulnerable to climate change. This vulnerability has not been quantified, and decision makers, although generally concerned, are unable to appreciate the extent of the possible impact of climate change nor formulate and adopt mitigating management strategies. Thus, this dissertation aims to fulfill this need by generating decision worthy data and information using an integrated climate change assessment framework. To begin this work, we develop a new joint variable spatial downscaling technique for statistically downscaling gridded climatic variables to generate high-resolution, gridded datasets for regional watershed modeling and assessment. The approach differs from previous statistical downscaling methods in that multiple climatic variables are downscaled simultaneously and consistently to produce realistic climate projections. In the bias correction step, JVSD uses a differencing process to create stationary joint cumulative frequency statistics of the variables being downscaled. The functional relationship between these statistics and those of the historical observation period is subsequently used to remove GCM bias. The original variables are recovered through summation of bias corrected differenced sequences. In the spatial disaggregation step, JVSD uses a historical analogue approach, with historical analogues identified simultaneously for all atmospheric fields and over all areas of the basin under study. In the second component of the integrated assessment framework, we develop a data-driven, downward hydrological watershed model for transforming the climate variables obtained from the downscaling procedures to hydrological variables. The watershed model includes several water balance elements with nonlinear storage-release functions. The release functions and parameters are data driven and estimated using a recursive identification methodology suitable for multiple, inter-linked modeling components. The model evolves from larger spatial/temporal scales down to smaller spatial/temporal scales with increasing model structure complexity. For ungauged or poorly-gauged watersheds, we developed and applied regionalization hydrologic models based on stepwise regressions to relate the parameters of the hydrological models to observed watershed responses at specific scales. Finally, we present the climate change assessment results for six river basins in the southeastern United States. The historical (baseline) assessment is based on climatic data for the period 1901 through 2009. The future assessment consists of running the assessment models under all IPCC A1B and A2 climate scenarios for the period from 2000 through 2099. The climate assessment includes temperature, precipitation, and potential evapotranspiration; the hydrology assessment includes primary hydrologic variables (i.e., soil moisture, evapotranspiration, and runoff) for each watershed.

The past few decades have seen, amongst other topical environmental issues, increased concerns regarding the imminent threat of global warming and the consequential impacts of climate change on environmental, social and economic systems. Numerous groundbreaking studies conducted independently and cooperatively have provided abundant and conclusive evidence that global climates are changing and that these changes will almost certainly impact natural and socio-economic systems. Increased global change pressures, which include, inter alia, climate change, have increased concerns over the supply of adequate quality freshwater. There is an inadequate body of knowledge pertaining to linking basic hydrological processes which drive water quality (WQ) variability with projected climate change. Incorporating such research into policy development and governance with the intention of developing adaptive WQ management strategies is also overlooked. Thus, the aim of this study was the assessment of projected climate change impacts on selected WQ constituents in the context of agricultural non-point source pollution and the development of the necessary adaptation strategies that can be incorporated into WQ management, policy development and governance. This assessment was carried out in the form of a case study in the Mkabela Catchment near Wartburg in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. The research involved applying climate change projections derived from seven downscaled Global Circulation Models (GCMs) used in the Fourth Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Assessment Report, in the ACRU-NPS water quality model to assess the potential impacts on selected water quality constituents (viz. sediment, nitrogen and phosphorus). Results indicated positive correlations between WQ related impacts and contaminant migration as generated from agricultural fertilizer applications. ACRU-NPS simulations indicated increases in runoff and associated changes in WQ variable generation and migration from upstream sources in response to downscaled GCM projections. However, there was limited agreement found between the simulations derived from the various downscaled GCM projections in regard to the magnitude and direction (i.e. percent changes between present and the future) of these changes in WQ variables. The rainfall distribution analyses conducted on a daily time-step resolution for each selected GCM also showed limited consistency between the GCM projections regarding rainfall changes between the present and the future. The implication was that since hydrological and climate change modelling can inform adaptation under climate change. However, adaptation to climate change in water quality management and policy development is going to require approaches that fully recognise the uncertainties presented by climate change and the associated modelling thereof. It was also considered crucial that equal attention be given to both climate change and natural variability, in order to ensure that adaptation strategies remain robust and effective under conditions of climate change and its respective uncertainties. / Thesis (M.Sc.)-University of KwaZulu-Natal, Pietermaritzburg, 2013.

The atmospheres of exoplanets are being characterised in increasing detail by observational facilities and will be examined with even greater clarity with upcoming space based missions such as the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) and the Wide Field InfraRed Survey Telescope (WFIRST). A major component of exoplanet atmospheres is the presence of cloud particles which produce characteristic observational signatures in transit spectra and influence the geometric albedo of exoplanets. Despite a decade of observational evidence, the formation, dynamics and radiative-transport of exoplanet atmospheric cloud particles remains an open question in the exoplanet community. In this thesis, we investigate the kinetic chemistry of cloud formation in hot Jupiter exoplanets, their effect on the atmospheric dynamics and observable properties. We use a static 1D cloud formation code to investigate the cloud formation properties of the hot Jupiter HD 189733b. We couple a time-dependent kinetic cloud formation to a 3D radiative-hydrodynamic simulation of the atmosphere of HD 189733b and investigate the dynamical properties of cloud particles in the atmosphere. We develop a 3D multiple-scattering Monte Carlo radiative-transfer code to post-process the results of the cloudy HD 189733b RHD simulation and compare the results to observational results. We find that the cloud structures of the hot Jupiter HD 189733b are likely to be highly inhomogeneous, with differences in cloud particle sizes, number density and composition with longitude, latitude and depth. Cloud structures are most divergent between the dayside and nightside faces of the planet due to the instability of silicate materials on the hotter dayside. We find that the HD 189733b simulation in post-processing is consistent with geometric albedo observations of the planet. Due to the scattering properties of the cloud particles we predict that HD 189733b will be brighter in the upcoming space missions CHaracterising ExOPlanet Satellite (CHEOPS) bandpass compared to the Transiting Exoplanet Space Survey (TESS) bandpass.

There is ample growth in scientific evidence about climate change. Since, hydrometeorological processes are sensitive to climate variability and changes, ascertaining the linkages and feedbacks between the climate and the hydrometeorological processes becomes critical for environmental quality, economic development, social well-being etc. As the river basin integrates some of the important systems like ecological and socio-economic systems, the knowledge of plausible implications of climate change on hydrometeorology of a river basin will not only increase the awareness of how the hydrological systems may change over the coming century, but also prepare us for adapting to the impacts of climate changes on water resources for sustainable management and development. In general, quantitative climate impact studies are based on several meteorological variables and possible future climate scenarios. Among the meteorological variables, sic “cardinal” variables are identified as the most commonly used in impact studies (IPCC, 2001). These are maximum and minimum temperatures, precipitation, solar radiation, relative humidity and wind speed. The climate scenarios refer to plausible future climates, which have been constructed for explicit use for investigating the potential consequences of anthropogenic climate alterations, in addition to the natural climate variability. Among the climate scenarios adapted in impact assessments, General circulation model(GCM) projections based on marker scenarios given in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC’s) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios(SRES) have become the standard scenarios. The GCMs are run at coarse resolutions and therefore the output climate variables for the various scenarios of these models cannot be used directly for impact assessment on a local(river basin)scale. Hence in the past, several methodologies such as downscaling and disaggregation have been developed to transfer information of atmospheric variables from the GCM scale to that of surface meteorological variables at local scale. The most commonly used downscaling approaches are based on transfer functions to represent the statistical relationships between the large scale atmospheric variables(predictors) and the local surface variables(predictands). Recently Support vector machine (SVM) is proposed, and is theoretically proved to have advantages over other techniques in use such as transfer functions. The SVM implements the structural risk minimization principle, which guarantees the global optimum solution. Further, for SVMs, the learning algorithm automatically decides the model architecture. These advantages make SVM a plausible choice for use in downscaling hydrometeorological variables. The literature review on use of transfer function for downscaling revealed that though a diverse range of transfer functions has been adopted for downscaling, only a few studies have evaluated the sensitivity of such downscaling models. Further, no studies have so far been carried out in India for downscaling hydrometeorological variables to a river basin scale, nor there was any prior work aimed at downscaling CGCM3 simulations to these variables at river basin scale for various IPCC SRES emission scenarios. The research presented in the thesis is motivated to assess the impact of climate change on streamflow at river basin scale for the various IPCC SRES scenarios (A1B, A2, B1 and COMMIT), by integrating implications of climate change on all the six cardinal variables. The catchment of Malaprabha river (upstream of Malaprabha reservoir) in India is chosen as the study area to demonstrate the effectiveness of the developed models, as it is considered to be a climatically sensitive region, because though the river originates in a region having high rainfall it feeds arid and semi-arid regions downstream. The data of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), the third generation Canadian Global Climate Model (CGCM3) of the Canadian Center for Climate Modeling and Analysis (CCCma), observed hydrometeorological variables, Digital Elevation model (DEM), land use/land cover map, and soil map prepared based on PAN and LISS III merged, satellite images are considered for use in the developed models. The thesis is broadly divided into four parts. The first part comprises of general introduction, data, techniques and tools used. The second part describes the process of assessment of the implications of climate change on monthly values of each of the six cardinal variables in the study region using SVM downscaling models and k-nearest neighbor (k-NN) disaggregation technique. Further, the sensitivity of the SVM downscaling models to the choice of predictors, predictand, calibration period, season and location is evaluated. The third part describes the impact assessment of climate change on streamflow in the study region using the SWAT hydrologic model, and SVM downscaling models. The fourth part presents summary of the work presented in the thesis, conclusions draws, and the scope for future research. The development of SVM downscaling model begins with the selection of probable predictors (large scale atmospheric variables). For this purpose, the cross-correlations are computed between the probable predictor variables in NCEP and GCM data sets, and the probable predictor variables in NCEP data set and the predictand. A pool of potential predictors is then stratified (which is optional and variable dependant) based on season and or location by specifying threshold values for the computed cross-correlations. The data on potential predictors are first standardized for a baseline period to reduce systemic bias (if any) in the mean and variance of predictors in GCM data, relative to those of the same in NCEP reanalysis data. The standardized NCEP predictor variables are then processed using principal component analysis (PCA) to extract principal components (PCs) which are orthogonal and which preserve more than 98% of the variance originally present in them. A feature vector is formed for each month using the PCs. The feature vector forms the input to the SVM model, and the contemporaneous value of predictand is its output. Finally, the downscaling model is calibrated to capture the relationship between NCEP data on potential predictors (i.e feature vectors) and the predictand. Grid search procedure is used to find the optimum range for each of the parameters. Subsequently, the optimum values of parameters are obtained from the selected ranges, using the stochastic search technique of genetic algorithm. The SVM model is subsequently validated, and then used to obtain projections of predictand for simulations of CGCM3. Results show that precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature, relative humidity and cloud cover are projected to increase in future for A1B, A2 and B1 scenarios, whereas no trend is discerned with theCOMMIT. The projected increase in predictands is high for A2 scenario and is least for B1 scenario. The wind speed is not projected to change in future for the study region for all the aforementioned scenarios. The solar radiation is projected to decrease in future for A1B, A2 and B1 scenarios, whereas no trend is discerned with the COMMIT. To assess the monthly streamflow responses to climate change, two methodologies are considered in this study namely (i) downscaling and disaggregating the meteorological variables for use as inputs in SWAT and (ii) directly downscaling streamflow using SVM. SWAT is a physically based, distributed, continuous time hydrological model that operates on a daily time scale. The hydrometeorologic variables obtained using SVM downscaling models are disaggregated to daily scale by using k-nearest neighbor method developed in this study. The other inputs to SWAT are DEM, land use/land cover map, soil map, which are considered to be the same for the present and future scenarios. The SWAT model has projected an increase in future streamflows for A1B, A2 andB1 scenarios, whereas no trend is discerned with the COMMIT. The monthly projections of streamflow at river basin scale are also obtained using two SVM based downscaling models. The first SVM model (called one-stage SVM model) considered feature vectors prepared based on monthly values of large scale atmospheric variables as inputs, whereas the second SVM model (called two-stage SVM model) considered feature vectors prepared from the monthly projections of cardinal variables as inputs. The trend in streamflows projected using two-stage SVM model is found to be similar to that projected by SWAT for each of the scenarios considered. The streamflow is not projected to change for any of the scenarios considered with the one-stage SVM downscaling model. The relative performance of the SWAT and the two SVM downscaling models in simulating observed streamflows is evaluated. In general, all the three models are able to simulate the streamflows well. Nevertheless, the performance of SWAT model is better. Further, among the two SVM models, the performance of one-stage streamflow downscaling model is marginally better than that of the two-stage streamflow downscaling model.

La mondialisation se manifeste comme une évidence ordinaire, à tous les coins de la planète. Comme beaucoup de nos contemporains, nous sommes persuadés de vivre un phénomène complètement inédit. Pour l’historien économiste, parler de mondialisation au singulier reviendrait à ignorer toutes les autres. Il n’est donc pas question ici de nier la vigueur de l’actuelle mondialisation, mais de bien saisir l’ampleur d’un phénomène permanent désormais lié à la conteneurisation. C’est d’ailleurs à la lumière du passé qu’on peut le mieux comprendre les débats actuels et appréhender l’avenir. Mais l’avenir est en grande partie déterminé par un certain nombre de facteurs de changement. S’il n’est pas possible de prédire l’aboutissement final du jeu de ces facteurs, on peut néanmoins spéculer sur la façon dont chacun d’eux peut influer sur l’avenir de l’économie européenne en général, et sur les conséquences qui peuvent en résulter pour la desserte de l’Europe en trafic conteneurisé. Certains de ces facteurs peuvent directement influer sur les points forts et les points faibles des modèles existants ; d’autres peuvent avoir des impacts indirects.Ce travail de thèse se veut un essai dédié à tous les praticiens et universitaires intéressés par le commerce maritime. Ce n’est pas un écrit de certitudes ou bien encore un concentré d’érudition; il ne cherche pas à traiter de tous les aspects du transport maritime et de l’histoire économique de l’Europe. L’Europe, qui ne représente que 7% des terres émergées, est une péninsule bordée de trois cotés par la mer et qui ne dispose sur le quatrième coté d’aucune limite géographique particulièrement nette la séparant du reste du continent eurasiatique. Cette Europe géographique a d’ailleurs rarement coïncidé avec l’Europe économique. Il faut, en effet, considérer que la vaste région d’Europe de l’est et du Sud-est fut envahie et asservie par des conquérants non européens, dont elle ne fut libérée qu’au bout de plusieurs siècles. En fait, l’Europe a toujours été à géométrie variable, ce qui est normal, car elle est une résultante depuis les temps antiques de toutes les invasions et de tous les échanges eurasiatiques. Après la découverte des Amériques, les Européens ont développé le commerce à l’échelle de la planète et imposé leur hégémonie jusqu’en 1914. Aux épices et autres objets orientaux, se sont ajoutés les produits des « Indes occidentales». Cette position centrale, acquise grâce à une supériorité démographique et technique procède d’un double impérialisme économique et centralisateur d’abord contesté au début du 20ème siècle et aujourd’hui largement condamné. Avec d’énormes capacités de transport et de très bas coûts, la conteneurisation accompagne depuis plus de cinquante ans la mondialisation et a totalement révolutionnée le transport de lignes régulières des marchandises diverses. Dès lors, une question permanente touchant à la globalisation des échanges et à la navigation vient se poser sous différentes formes dans cette thèse à savoir l’accès au marché mondial de L’Europe lié assurément à la performance des infrastructures de l’Europe mais plus encore à la circulation planétaire. L’avenir de l’Europe passe inéluctablement par la Méditerranée et il est contrarié par un « effet de ciseau » mettant en péril l’insertion des pays du sud de cette Méditerranée dans le processus de mondialisation. L’Europe a un rôle majeur à jouer dans cette région mais elle ne fait rien ou presque face à l’émergence des puissances asiatiques et latino-américaines. Si l’on attend qu’elle ait trouvé son «chemin de Damas», le risque est évident de voir à l’horizon 2030 disparaître la position centrale de l’Europe. Inversement, une projection raisonnable laisse prévoir un système global de commerce et de navigation centré sur l’océan Indien et les mers de Chine, les flux de trafics européens devenant graduellement périphériques dans une nouvelle circulation planétaire. / Throughout the world globalisation exists as an everyday reality. Like many of our contemporaries, we are convinced that we are experiencing a completely new phenomenon. For the economic historian, talking about globalisation in the singular would mean ignoring all the others. It is not the purpose of this essay to deny the vigour of the current globalisation, but to grasp the size of a permanent phenomenon, which is now linked to containerisation. In fact, with the benefit of hindsight and a study of the past, we can understand better the current debates and possible future developments. But the future is largely determined by a certain number of change factors. If it is not possible to predict the final outcome of these changes, nonetheless, we can speculate on the way each might influence the future of the European economy, in general, and on the consequences which can result from the provision of containerised transport throughout Europe. Some of these factors can directly influence the strengths and weaknesses of the existing models; others can have indirect impacts.This thesis is an essay which is aimed at all the practitioners and university specialists interested in maritime trade. It is not a text about certitudes, nor a piece of condensed scholarship; the objective is neither to cover every aspect of maritime transport nor the economic history of Europe. Europe, which only represents 7% of the global land mass, is a peninsula bordered on three sides by the seas and does not have a neat geographical border on the fourth side separating it from the rest of the Eurasian continent. This geographical Europe has rarely coincided with an economic Europe. We must consider that the vast regions of east and south-east Europe were invaded and enslaved by non-European conquerors, and were liberated only after many centuries. In fact Europe has always had a variable geometry, which is normal, because, since ancient times it has been the result of all the different invasions and Eurasian trade. After the discovery of the American continent, Europeans developed commerce on a worldwide scale and imposed their hegemony until 1914. Spices and other oriental products were added to the products from the “East Indies”. This central position, obtained because of a demographic and technical superiority, stems from an economic and centralizing imperialism, challenged at the start of the 20th century and today largely condemned.With enormous transport capacities and very low costs, containerisation has accompanied globalisation for more than fifty years and has totally revolutionised the transport on regular lines of different merchandise. Henceforth, a permanent question about the globalisation of trade and navigation appears in different forms in this thesis; this is that access to the global market of Europe is certainly linked to the performance of European infrastructure but even more to global traffic. The future of Europe is inevitably linked to the Mediterranean and is thwarted by the “price scissors effect” which puts at risk the involvement of southern Mediterranean states in the process of globalisation. Europe has a major role to play in this region, but it does nearly nothing in response to the emergence of Asian and Latin American powers. If we wait for Europe to find its “road to Damascus”, there is a risk that by 2030 it will have lost its central role. On the other hand a reasonable prediction is that there will be a global system of trade and navigation centred on the Indian Ocean and the China seas, while European traffic gradually becomes peripheral to a new global containerised transport circulation.