Há décadas a comunidade científica vem alertando sobre as mudanças climáticas e a necessidade de reduzir as emissões gases de efeito estufa. Sobre dois pilares fundamentais têm se sustentado a narrativa e as ações para enfrentar a crise ecológica global (a) na desmaterialização da economia usando tecnologias e processos cada mais eficientes (b) na descarbonização da economia usando fontes renováveis. Não obstante, os resultados gerais deste trabalho não encontraram evidência empírica de desmaterialização ou descarbonização da economia mundial. Partindo deste resultado em escala global, aprofundou-se a análise empírica ao nível individual de todas as economias do planeta. Os resultados encontrados indicam que em 4 economias com elevada renda e desenvolvimento tecnológico tem havido descasamento forte (strong decoupling) do uso de energia e das emissões de CO2. Porém, este resultado contrasta com evidências compiladas que apontam que o determinante principal deste descasamento está associado a um processo de desindustrialização destas economias e, concomitantemente, uma acelerada importação de mercadorias produzidas pelas indústrias da Ásia, especialmente a chinesa (energizada a carvão). Portanto, a julgar pela dominância fóssil passada e ainda vigente, não se vislumbra um cenário no curto e médio prazos, de ruptura abrupta entre crescimento econômico futuro e o uso de energia majoritariamente produzida com fósseis. O que está em curso é a gestação de uma futura transição energética alimentada pela introdução de fontes renováveis na matriz energética mundial nos últimos anos, mas com limitações socioeconômicas importantes que são descritas neste trabalho. É mostrado que América Latina pode ter um papel crucial nesta transição, com a industrialização e sinergia regional entre seus recursos naturais (tanto renováveis como não renováveis), sendo as reservas de lítio para produção de baterias um recurso estratégico para impulsionar a mobilidade elétrica. Além da importância socioambiental e política dos padrões analisados neste trabalho, é mostrada também a relevância teórica destes, pois permitem aprofundar o questionamento da representação ortodoxa das relações entre Economia e Natureza. / For decades the scientific community has been warning about climate change and the need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. On two fundamental pillars have been supported the narrative and the actions to face the global ecological crisis (a) \'dematerialization\' of the economy using more efficient technologies and processes (b) decarbonization of the economy using renewable sources. Nevertheless, the overall results of this work did not find empirical evidence of dematerialization (strong decoupling) or decarbonization of the global economy. Starting from this result on a global scale, the empirical analysis was deepened including all the economies of the planet. Our findings are that in 4 high income and technological advanced economies are signs of strong decoupling between both energy use and CO2 emissions. However, these results contrasts with evidence in favor of a decoupling process associated with the deindustrialization of these economies. Simultaneously, the flux of imports produced by Asian industries, especially by coal-fired Chinese industries is increasing. Thus, judging by past and still prevailing fossil dominance, there is no indication of a short-medium term scenario with abrupt rupture between future economic growth and the use of energy (mostly produced with fossils). Currently, there is a global energy transition brewing, pushed by the efforts to insert renewable sources in the world energy matrix. However, important socioeconomic limitations described in this work remains. Latin America may be a crucial actor in the global energy transition, promoting the industrialization and synergy between natural resources (both renewable and non-renewable); being lithium reserves for the production of electric batteries one of the strategic resources to put forward the option of electric mobility. Besides the socioenvironmental and political importance of the results presented here, it was also highlight the theoretical relevance of these, since they allow to deepen in the debate about the orthodox representation of the relations between Economy and Nature.

Há décadas a comunidade científica vem alertando sobre as mudanças climáticas e a necessidade de reduzir as emissões gases de efeito estufa. Sobre dois pilares fundamentais têm se sustentado a narrativa e as ações para enfrentar a crise ecológica global (a) na desmaterialização da economia usando tecnologias e processos cada mais eficientes (b) na descarbonização da economia usando fontes renováveis. Não obstante, os resultados gerais deste trabalho não encontraram evidência empírica de desmaterialização ou descarbonização da economia mundial. Partindo deste resultado em escala global, aprofundou-se a análise empírica ao nível individual de todas as economias do planeta. Os resultados encontrados indicam que em 4 economias com elevada renda e desenvolvimento tecnológico tem havido descasamento forte (strong decoupling) do uso de energia e das emissões de CO2. Porém, este resultado contrasta com evidências compiladas que apontam que o determinante principal deste descasamento está associado a um processo de desindustrialização destas economias e, concomitantemente, uma acelerada importação de mercadorias produzidas pelas indústrias da Ásia, especialmente a chinesa (energizada a carvão). Portanto, a julgar pela dominância fóssil passada e ainda vigente, não se vislumbra um cenário no curto e médio prazos, de ruptura abrupta entre crescimento econômico futuro e o uso de energia majoritariamente produzida com fósseis. O que está em curso é a gestação de uma futura transição energética alimentada pela introdução de fontes renováveis na matriz energética mundial nos últimos anos, mas com limitações socioeconômicas importantes que são descritas neste trabalho. É mostrado que América Latina pode ter um papel crucial nesta transição, com a industrialização e sinergia regional entre seus recursos naturais (tanto renováveis como não renováveis), sendo as reservas de lítio para produção de baterias um recurso estratégico para impulsionar a mobilidade elétrica. Além da importância socioambiental e política dos padrões analisados neste trabalho, é mostrada também a relevância teórica destes, pois permitem aprofundar o questionamento da representação ortodoxa das relações entre Economia e Natureza. / For decades the scientific community has been warning about climate change and the need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. On two fundamental pillars have been supported the narrative and the actions to face the global ecological crisis (a) \'dematerialization\' of the economy using more efficient technologies and processes (b) decarbonization of the economy using renewable sources. Nevertheless, the overall results of this work did not find empirical evidence of dematerialization (strong decoupling) or decarbonization of the global economy. Starting from this result on a global scale, the empirical analysis was deepened including all the economies of the planet. Our findings are that in 4 high income and technological advanced economies are signs of strong decoupling between both energy use and CO2 emissions. However, these results contrasts with evidence in favor of a decoupling process associated with the deindustrialization of these economies. Simultaneously, the flux of imports produced by Asian industries, especially by coal-fired Chinese industries is increasing. Thus, judging by past and still prevailing fossil dominance, there is no indication of a short-medium term scenario with abrupt rupture between future economic growth and the use of energy (mostly produced with fossils). Currently, there is a global energy transition brewing, pushed by the efforts to insert renewable sources in the world energy matrix. However, important socioeconomic limitations described in this work remains. Latin America may be a crucial actor in the global energy transition, promoting the industrialization and synergy between natural resources (both renewable and non-renewable); being lithium reserves for the production of electric batteries one of the strategic resources to put forward the option of electric mobility. Besides the socioenvironmental and political importance of the results presented here, it was also highlight the theoretical relevance of these, since they allow to deepen in the debate about the orthodox representation of the relations between Economy and Nature.

Net energy exporting countries (NEECs) and net energy importing countries (NEICs) depend on each other for mutual gains. However, NEICs pursue strategic policies to reduce consumption of energy from conventional sources and increase that of renewable energy in order to attain energy security and macro environmental and carbon accountability. On the other hand, NEECs such as Nigeria depend heavily on oil and gas exports to NEICs to generate revenue. As a result of this inter-dependent relationship, this PhD project adopts a dependency theory and strategic issue analysis framework to underpin the study. Accordingly, the study approach is founded on the ideas of pluralism as a social reality and adopted pragmatism as the research approach. Consistent with these approaches, the study was undertaken by analysing both secondary and primary data, including macro-economic statistics of annual time-series dataset (1980-2014) and semi-structured interviews respectively. The quantitative part of the project used Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Bounds testing approach. This method was used to investigate and analyse the effect of renewable energy consumption and carbon emissions reduction on Nigeria’s oil and gas exports. The qualitative part involved interviews with twenty senior government officials in Nigeria from six selected Federal Ministries, Departments and Agencies (MDAs), representatives of civil society groups and academicians, to support the quantitative results and answer certain research questions. The short-run quantitative results and qualitative findings show that renewable energy consumption in developed NEICs affects Nigeria’s oil and gas exports. However, the reverse holds true for emerging NEICs. Both the quantitative results and the qualitative findings show that carbon emissions reduction in developed NEICs affects Nigerian oil and gas exports in the long run. Also, the quantitative results show that renewable energy consumption in developed and emerging NEICs does not affect Nigerian oil and gas exports in the long run. However, the qualitative findings only support the quantitative results for emerging NEICs but do not support those of developed NEICs. Similarly, the qualitative findings indicate that other external and internal factors such as discovery of shale oil and gas; improvement in energy efficient technologies; the use of long-term contract in other NEECs; stringent nature of the Nigerian Content Law and lack of passage of the Petroleum Industry Bill amongst others currently contribute in affecting Nigeria’s oil and gas exports. Moreover, the qualitative findings show that global energy transition has an impact on the Nigeria’s oil and gas revenue, savings made to the Nigerian Sovereign Wealth Fund, budget financing and will continue to affect Nigerian revenue and budget if the economy remains undiversified. Finally, the qualitative findings indicate that global energy transition has negatively affected Foreign Direct Investment flow into Nigerian petroleum industry and discoveries of new oil and gas reserves. These findings have several implications. Firstly, Nigerian oil and gas exports are affected by the carbon emissions control regime, which makes future oil and gas revenues uncertain; thereby putting pressure on budget financing and socio-economic growth and development. On this note, there is the need for Nigeria to take cautionary position in the global climate change debate in order not to adversely affect the country’s economic interest. Secondly, the consumption of energy from renewable sources in both developed and emerging NEICs is an opportunity for Nigeria to export not only its conventional energy but also renewable energy if commercially harnessed. This suggests that Nigerian should also invest heavily in renewable energy production. Thirdly, the major findings of this study provide evidence in support of the relevance of dependency theory and strategic issue analysis framework within the context of energy transition in NEICs on one hand, and Nigerian oil and gas exports to these countries on the other. This implies the need for Nigeria to focus on developing internal market trajectories to increase domestic utilisation of its conventional energy rather than being dependent on external markets for the sale of the nation’s energy resources.

Yes / Endowed with a significant proportion of the world’s petroleum and solid mineral resources, Africa is the location of a vibrant and dynamic extractive industries sector, which today, is its chief economic mainstay. The revenue generated from the extractive industries has been a significant source of finance for public infrastructure development and investments in education, health and the development of other economic sectors across the continent. However, the African extractive industries have faced massive setbacks in recent years, in particular due to the economic disruptions caused by the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, and the global transition to a low carbon economy that has formed a central part of ongoing efforts to respond to the climate change emergency. These challenges have accentuated concerns on the current and future relevance of the African extractive industries in a low-carbon economy world order. This article examines the role played by the African extractive industries in the global energy transition, contextualising these concerns against a continuum of disruption arising as a consequence of the COVID-19 pandemic and emergent efforts to redress the crisis posed by anthropogenic climate change. If well managed, extractive resources could play a crucial role in advancing energy security and transition in the African continent in the face of these challenges. In addition to its role in addressing current high levels of energy poverty across Africa in this disruptive setting, environmentally-responsible production of extractive resources can help sustain economic and social development across Africa in going forward. This article examines the current opportunities and challenges for cleaner and environmentally-responsible extractive investments in Africa in a low carbon world. It analyses the preconditions and barriers to environmentally-responsible fossil fuels developments in Africa and highlights the key considerations for African policymakers. Its analysis is informed by recognition of, and sensitivity towards, the extreme disruption to fossil fuel governance embodied by the twin concerns of the COVID-19 pandemic and the current “climate emergency.” Through a qualitative analysis, this research has found that if well-managed, African resource-rich countries could utilise the revenues from the extractive industries to invest in low carbon technologies.