Thunderstorms, due to their high frequency of occurrence over southern Africa, and their major contribution to summer rainfall are the primary focus of very short range forecasting and nowcasting efforts in South Africa. With a limited number of surface and upper-air observations and the limited availability of numerical model output most southern African countries are heavily reliant on satellite technology. In developing tools for the first twelve forecast hours the South African Weather Service has to address both the national and regional needs. Thus, the blending of techniques in an optimal manner is essential. This study initially describes how the Global Instability Index product derived from the European Meteosat Second Generation Satellite was adapted for South African circumstances using a different numerical model to provide background information – creating the Regional Instability Indices (RII). The focus of the study is the development of a new convection indicator, called the Combined Instability Index (CII), which calculates the probability of convection from satellite derived instability indices and moisture, as well as height above sea level early in the morning when the sky is relatively cloud free. Early morning CII values were evaluated statistically against the occurrence of lightning over South Africa, where a lightning network is available, as well as against satellite derived precipitation over southern Africa, later in the same day. It is shown that the CII not only performs well, but also outperforms the individual RII when compared to the occurrence of lightning. The CII will be beneficial to operational forecasters to focus their attention on the area which is most favourable for the development of convection later in the day. / Environmental Sciences / Ph. D. (Environmental Sciences)

Thunderstorms, due to their high frequency of occurrence over southern Africa, and their major contribution to summer rainfall are the primary focus of very short range forecasting and nowcasting efforts in South Africa. With a limited number of surface and upper-air observations and the limited availability of numerical model output most southern African countries are heavily reliant on satellite technology. In developing tools for the first twelve forecast hours the South African Weather Service has to address both the national and regional needs. Thus, the blending of techniques in an optimal manner is essential. This study initially describes how the Global Instability Index product derived from the European Meteosat Second Generation Satellite was adapted for South African circumstances using a different numerical model to provide background information – creating the Regional Instability Indices (RII). The focus of the study is the development of a new convection indicator, called the Combined Instability Index (CII), which calculates the probability of convection from satellite derived instability indices and moisture, as well as height above sea level early in the morning when the sky is relatively cloud free. Early morning CII values were evaluated statistically against the occurrence of lightning over South Africa, where a lightning network is available, as well as against satellite derived precipitation over southern Africa, later in the same day. It is shown that the CII not only performs well, but also outperforms the individual RII when compared to the occurrence of lightning. The CII will be beneficial to operational forecasters to focus their attention on the area which is most favourable for the development of convection later in the day. / Environmental Sciences / Ph. D. (Environmental Sciences)