Darbo tikslas – identifikuoti svarbiausius grūdų kainų Lietuvoje veiksnius ir įvertinti jų reikšmingumą. Uždaviniai: 1) atskleisti grūdų kainų specifiką ir kainodaros ypatumus; 2) identifikuoti grūdų kainų veiksnius ir nustatyti jų ištirtumą akademinėje literatūroje; 3) išanalizuoti grūdų kainų pokyčius ir kainų dydžio veiksnius Lietuvoje; 4) įvertinti kainų veiksnių įtaką grūdų kainoms. Tyrimo metodai: 1) analizuojant grūdų kainų politikos nuostatas ir raidą Lietuvoje, naudoti bendramoksliniai tyrimo metodai – mokslinės literatūros ir juridinių dokumentų analizė ir sintezė; 2) atliekant grūdų kainų analizę ir įvertinant kainų pokyčius naudoti ekonominiai - statistiniai duomenų rinkimo ir analizės metodai; 3) statistinei informacijai apdoroti ir sisteminti panaudoti grupavimo, palyginimo ir grafinio vaizdavimo būdai; 4) įvertinant kainų veiksnių įtaką grūdų kainoms, naudotas tiesinės regresijos metodas. Tyrimo teorinis pagrindas Rengiant magistrūros studijų baigiamąjį darbą naudota Lietuvos bei užsienio autorių mokslinė literatūra baigiamojo darbo tema, Lietuvos Respublikos įstatymai ir nutarimai, statistinė informacija iš Lietuvos Respublikos institucijų: Statistikos departamento prie Lietuvos Respublikos Vyriausybės, Lietuvos Respublikos žemės ūkio ministerijos, Nacionalinės mokėjimo agentūros prie Žemės ūkio ministerijos, Lietuvos Respublikos finansų ministerijos duomenų bazių. Tyrimo rezultatai • pirmoje darbo dalyje išnagrinėta grūdų kainų specifika ir kainodara... [toliau žr. visą tekstą] / Research object – grain prices and its factors. Research aim – identify the most important factors of Lithuanian grain prices and eveluate its importance. Objectives: 1) Disclose specific and price making peculiarity of grain market prices; 2) Identify factors of grain market prices and ascertain its investigation in academic literature; 3) Analyze Lithuanian grain dynamics, changes, and factors of prices size; 4) Evaluate factors influence prices for grain market prices. Research methods: 1) Analyzing grain market politics statutes in Lithuania are used overall research methods- analysis and synthesis of scientific literature and juridical documents; 2) Remaining grain prices analysis are used economical, statistical collection of information and analysis methods; 3) Classification, comparison and graphic representation methods are used to edit and systematize statistical information; 4) Evaluation of the prices of factors influence the prices of cereals, used in the linear regression method. Research theoretical foundation Preparing a Master's degree final thesis will be used Lithuanian and foreign scientific literature for final thesis, Republic of Lithuania laws and resolutions, statistical information from institutions of Lithuania‘s Republic: Lithuanian Department of Statistics to the Government of the Republic of Lithuania, Lithuanian Ministry of Agriculture, National Paying Agency under the Ministry of Agriculture, Ministry of Finance of the Republic of... [to full text]

This dissertation examines several issues regarding the congestion on the Upper Mississippi River and Illinois Waterway. Chapter II identifies and measures the impact of lock congestion on grain barge rates on these waterways. Results indicate grain barge rates on both rivers are not affected by lagged lock congestion. In present time, however, lock congestion in the lower reaches of the upper Mississippi and Illinois Rivers are found to increase barge rates that link the north central United States to the lower Mississippi Gulf port area. The findings suggest the impact of lock congestion on grain barge rates is moderate. Chapter III explores the interaction between grain prices in export and domestic markets and transportation rates linking these markets over time. Three model frameworks were evaluated and some consistent results are observed. In general, shocks in transportation rates (barge, rail, and ocean) explain a great proportion of the variation in corn and soybean market prices in the long run, suggesting the importance of transportation in grain price determination. The volatile ocean freight rates are the mostimportant transportation rates contributing to the variation in grain prices, while shocks in barge rates on the Upper Mississippi River and Illinois Waterway generally explain less than 15 percent of the variation in grain prices. The dynamic interrelationships among the six evaluated transportation rates are also found. In addition, the north central corn markets likely have the most influence over other markets while soybean export price dominates the soybean market in the long run. Chapter IV estimates the structural demand for grain barge transportation on both the upper Mississippi and Illinois Rivers. Results suggest foreign grain demand is the most influential force affecting grain barge demand on both rivers. Also, results indicate an inelastic demand for grain barge transportation on the Upper Mississippi in the short run; demand is price elastic in the long run. The price elasticity for grain barge demand on the Illinois River is consistently inelastic. Additionally, the winter season and floods affect demand on the Upper Mississippi negatively, while barge demand increases on the Illinois River in winter.

The effects of the March 1990 deregulation policy on the marketing of agricultural products are examined in terms of price levels, price variability and market integration for maize, tef, noug and sorghum for the Bako, Tibe and Shoboka markets of the Wollega and Shoa regions of Ethiopia. Weekly price data from 1986 to 1993 are used. The price level and price variability changes are tested using a T-test and F-test respectively while market integration is tested using traditional price correlation analysis and Granger's and Johansen's methods of cointegration analysis. Deregulation has resulted in an increase in real prices which has also, in most cases, been accompanied by an increase in price variability. The price correlation and Granger methods indicate improvement in market integration under deregulation while Johansen's method indicates similar levels of market integration for both regulated and deregulated marketing systems. Increased price variability might thwart the perceived benefits of deregulation and further research is needed to identify its causes and to provide appropriate policy recommendations.

This study develops the structure and closure of an econometric regime-switching model within a partial equilibrium framework that has the ability to generate reliable estimates and projections of endogenous variables under market-switching regimes. Models used in policy evaluation usually either ignore the possibility of regime switching, using just a single method of price determination based on average effects, or incorporate highly stylised components that may not reflect the complexities of a particular market. This study proposes an approach that allows the incorporation of features of regime switching in a multisector commodity level model which capture salient features of the South African market and are therefore able to produce more reliable projections of the evolution of the sector under alternative shocks. The following hypothesis is tested in the study: With the correct model structure and closure, a combination of modelling techniques can be applied to develop a simulation model that has the ability to generate reliable estimates and projections of endogenous variables under market-switching regimes. The technique that is used to “close” a simultaneous or recursive simulation model determines the manner in which market equilibrium is achieved in the model. The choice of closure technique will depend on the equilibrium pricing condition in a specific market, specifically which market regime prevails in the market. It is important to note that trade flow and equilibrium pricing conditions under various trade regimes in the SA grain markets do not occur strictly according to these definitions. In the SA white and yellow maize markets some level of trade does occur with neighbouring countries at price levels that suggest that the market is trading under a type of regional autarky isolated from world markets. Industry experts argue that trade in the Southern African region is largely driven by regional issues like staple food, adverse weather conditions, location and quality concerns of genetically modified imported maize from non-African destinations, and to a lesser extent by arbitrage opportunities. This study, therefore, refers to “near-autarky”. Given the fact that markets can fluctuate between different trade regimes (therefore equilibrium pricing conditions), some type of regime-switching model needs to be utilised to determine model closure. A switching mechanism is introduced that allows the white maize model to switch between model closer under import parity, near-autarky, and export parity, the yellow maize model to switch between model closure under import parity and near-autarky, and the wheat model to close under import parity. Various approaches are used to test whether the regime-switching model complies with the hypothesis of this study. The first approach involves the simulation of baseline projections under a combination of different trade regimes in the grain markets. The second approach illustrates the usefulness of the automated switch between the various model closure techniques by comparing ex-post simulation results of the regime-switching model to the results of a previous version of the sector model that does not have the ability to switch between various market regimes. The last approach presents a more hands-on application of the regime-switching model to real-life examples by analysing the impact of a combination of market- and policy-related shocks in the form of scenario analysis. This study proves that the regime-switching model is able to capture a richer variety of market behaviour than standard models as a result of the regime-switching innovation outlined, therefore more accurately capturing the likely effects of shocks on the domestic market. It is therefore consistent with the hypothesis of this study. The regime-switching model is, by design, more rigorous than the previous model in that it emphasises price formation and correct model closure under alternative regimes. Although the model is particularly appropriate for the South African grain market as specified here, it provides a template for which models for other countries and commodities may be developed. / Thesis (PhD (Agricultural Economics))--University of Pretoria, 2006. / Agricultural Economics, Extension and Rural Development / unrestricted

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Although the original intent of this study was to do a pre-and post-deregulation assessment of rail rates per ton-mile, the results using post-deregulation data show a significant decrease in rail rates between 1981 and 2000. While accounting for changes in shipment characteristics, savings for wheat, barley, com, oat, and soybean shippers were 63.80%, 69.17%, 49.07%, 67.97%, and 59.36%, respectively. Rate savings over time for an average 1981 shipment were 45%, 55%, 38%, 45%, and 36% for wheat, barley, com, oat, and soybean shippers, respectively. Analysis regarding the effects of deregulation of rail rates on com, soybean, and wheat on a regional basis shows that rail rates not only differ across commodities, but also among regions. In general, it was found that grain producers within regions that had higher levels of intermodal competition had lower rates than their counterparts with lower levels of intermodal competition. Distribution of benefits as a result of market-based pricing has varied among regions, and these variances are increasing over time.