The implications of a computerized grain trading system on the Southeast poultry firms was studied. The purposes of this study were to describe the current grain trading system, identify sources of inefficiency in the system, and infer the possible changes in efficiency due to a computerized grain trading system. A telephone survey was used to gather the information from the grain buyers. The trading practices used by the buyers were identified. The poultry firm's amount of storage, the quantity, quality, oriqin, transportation mode of the purchased qrain, and information about the selling firm was gathered. From the trade information, the pricing and technical ineff iencies plus the level of competition in the market were identified. The primary economic implications to Southeastern poultry firms if a computerized grain trading system were in place were the level of competition would increase, technical efficiency could increase from a decrease in costs of labor and information search, pricing efficiency could increase due to more structured market information, and the middle level margins could decrease and create an overall more efficient market. / M.S.

Eastern Virginia grain producers face production and marketing decisions under conditions of considerable yield and price variability. Traditionally MOTAD and other risk programming models have relied on the variability of historical returns series as a proxy for the risk an individual producer experiences. The mean forecast deviation method provides an alternative to the standard method of calculating deviations for MOT AD models. This method was applied to an eastern Virginia cash grain farm to provide a farm plan based on expected prices during the first week of February. The acreages of com, soybeans, and small grains were specified based on soil type, government program participation, sales at harvest, storage, pre-harvest hedging, and post-harvest hedging. The expected farm plans for the 1987 crop year resulted in participation in the government commodity programs at all levels of risk aversion and for each crop and soil type. Elimination of government commodity programs from the model resulted in two major findings: wheat and barley doubled cropped with soybeans preformed well on both soil types and at all levels of risk aversion, and given 1987 expected prices, idling lower quality land was a profitable decision at all levels of risk aversion. / Master of Science

Master of Agribusiness / Department of Agricultural Economics / Jason Bergtold / In the grain industry, producers have sold grain for a long time over the telephone. This thesis suggests significant changes in grain marketing strategies and why other methods of selling grain may help both producers and grain merchandisers be more effective with cash grain transactions. Specifically, the use of web-based applications that allow growers to make, manage and monitor grain offers and use mobile technology for grain marketing solutions. This thesis evaluates two key technology options for agricultural producers. First, the research evaluates factors that impact traded bushels on Farms Technology’s private internet technology trading platform, the Dynamic Pricing Platform (DPP). The second element of the research defines a model which examines likelihood of growers adopting mobile trading technology to increase grain marketing opportunities. A thorough understanding of these two marketing platforms will allow Farms Technology to increase the number of growers opting to use technology to execute cash grain sales, which is financially beneficial to the company. Results indicate that a number of online variables significantly impact online grain trade, in addition to factors that specifically influence the potential adoption of mobile technology by agricultural producers. Results help quantify many insights which Farms Technology has developed in relation to online grade trading and uncovered future possibilities in the online grade trading industry. Statically significant factors that impact grain traded on the DPP include: acres (farm size), on-farm storage, percent of grain sold over the phone, offered bushels, and whether or not farmers received text messages. With respect to mobile application adoption, results identified factors that significantly and positively impact the likelihood of mobile adoption, including: farmers with no cell phone, farmers that are currently receiving text messages, farmers owning a smart phone, and customer service rating for Farms Technology by the farmer. Variables that significantly and negatively impacted mobile adoption included: farmers currently selling on the DPP and farmers who believe the online DPP application is too difficult to use.

Includes bibliographical references (leaves 222-235) / ix, 235 leaves ; 30 cm. / Title page, contents and abstract only. The complete thesis in print form is available from the University Library. / Develops a coherent theoretical framework to analyse the formulation of grain procurement policy for the entire history of the PRC. An optimization model is constructed to capture Chinese policy makers' preferences regarding the competing objectives of sectoral income distribition and food security, as well as the factors governing the trade-off between thes two objectives and the choice of policy instruments. Also analyses the impacts of China's accession to WTO on its grain sector. To explain the numerous failures of China's grain policy, studies the problems arising from policy formulation and implementation. / Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Adelaide, School of Economics, 2003

Bibliography: leaves 230-246.

The effects of the March 1990 deregulation policy on the marketing of agricultural products are examined in terms of price levels, price variability and market integration for maize, tef, noug and sorghum for the Bako, Tibe and Shoboka markets of the Wollega and Shoa regions of Ethiopia. Weekly price data from 1986 to 1993 are used. The price level and price variability changes are tested using a T-test and F-test respectively while market integration is tested using traditional price correlation analysis and Granger's and Johansen's methods of cointegration analysis. Deregulation has resulted in an increase in real prices which has also, in most cases, been accompanied by an increase in price variability. The price correlation and Granger methods indicate improvement in market integration under deregulation while Johansen's method indicates similar levels of market integration for both regulated and deregulated marketing systems. Increased price variability might thwart the perceived benefits of deregulation and further research is needed to identify its causes and to provide appropriate policy recommendations.

Includes bibliographical references (leaves 222-235) / ix, 235 leaves ; 30 cm. / Title page, contents and abstract only. The complete thesis in print form is available from the University Library. / Develops a coherent theoretical framework to analyse the formulation of grain procurement policy for the entire history of the PRC. An optimization model is constructed to capture Chinese policy makers' preferences regarding the competing objectives of sectoral income distribition and food security, as well as the factors governing the trade-off between thes two objectives and the choice of policy instruments. Also analyses the impacts of China's accession to WTO on its grain sector. To explain the numerous failures of China's grain policy, studies the problems arising from policy formulation and implementation. / Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Adelaide, School of Economics, 2003

This study develops the structure and closure of an econometric regime-switching model within a partial equilibrium framework that has the ability to generate reliable estimates and projections of endogenous variables under market-switching regimes. Models used in policy evaluation usually either ignore the possibility of regime switching, using just a single method of price determination based on average effects, or incorporate highly stylised components that may not reflect the complexities of a particular market. This study proposes an approach that allows the incorporation of features of regime switching in a multisector commodity level model which capture salient features of the South African market and are therefore able to produce more reliable projections of the evolution of the sector under alternative shocks. The following hypothesis is tested in the study: With the correct model structure and closure, a combination of modelling techniques can be applied to develop a simulation model that has the ability to generate reliable estimates and projections of endogenous variables under market-switching regimes. The technique that is used to “close” a simultaneous or recursive simulation model determines the manner in which market equilibrium is achieved in the model. The choice of closure technique will depend on the equilibrium pricing condition in a specific market, specifically which market regime prevails in the market. It is important to note that trade flow and equilibrium pricing conditions under various trade regimes in the SA grain markets do not occur strictly according to these definitions. In the SA white and yellow maize markets some level of trade does occur with neighbouring countries at price levels that suggest that the market is trading under a type of regional autarky isolated from world markets. Industry experts argue that trade in the Southern African region is largely driven by regional issues like staple food, adverse weather conditions, location and quality concerns of genetically modified imported maize from non-African destinations, and to a lesser extent by arbitrage opportunities. This study, therefore, refers to “near-autarky”. Given the fact that markets can fluctuate between different trade regimes (therefore equilibrium pricing conditions), some type of regime-switching model needs to be utilised to determine model closure. A switching mechanism is introduced that allows the white maize model to switch between model closer under import parity, near-autarky, and export parity, the yellow maize model to switch between model closure under import parity and near-autarky, and the wheat model to close under import parity. Various approaches are used to test whether the regime-switching model complies with the hypothesis of this study. The first approach involves the simulation of baseline projections under a combination of different trade regimes in the grain markets. The second approach illustrates the usefulness of the automated switch between the various model closure techniques by comparing ex-post simulation results of the regime-switching model to the results of a previous version of the sector model that does not have the ability to switch between various market regimes. The last approach presents a more hands-on application of the regime-switching model to real-life examples by analysing the impact of a combination of market- and policy-related shocks in the form of scenario analysis. This study proves that the regime-switching model is able to capture a richer variety of market behaviour than standard models as a result of the regime-switching innovation outlined, therefore more accurately capturing the likely effects of shocks on the domestic market. It is therefore consistent with the hypothesis of this study. The regime-switching model is, by design, more rigorous than the previous model in that it emphasises price formation and correct model closure under alternative regimes. Although the model is particularly appropriate for the South African grain market as specified here, it provides a template for which models for other countries and commodities may be developed. / Thesis (PhD (Agricultural Economics))--University of Pretoria, 2006. / Agricultural Economics, Extension and Rural Development / unrestricted

No description available.

Call number: LD2668 .T4 1985 T474 / Master of Science