<p>Detta är en undersökning av Sveriges statsbesöks effekt på Sveriges export. För att mäta effekten använder jag mig av en empirisk modell, den så kallade handelsgravitationsmodellen. Jag finner att det är svårt att hitta starka och statistiskt signifikanta bevis på att Sveriges statsbesök har en positiv effekt på exporten. När man isolerar för statsbesök i Europa utanför Norden finner jag till och med tecken på att de kan ha en negativ effekt. Jag har även jämfört effekten av Sveriges statsbesök med effekten av Storbritanniens och funnit att Sverige har en generellt lägre effekt än Storbritannien, oavsett vilken modell som används.</p>

This thesis investigates in what way trade flows in Europe have been altered and differ for countries belonging to a preferential trade agreement as well as a common currency area. More specifically, how exports among the European countries are affected by memberships with the European Union and the EMU. A total of 72 countries have been chosen which represents the main trading partners between the EU and the rest of the world. Out of these 72 countries, 25 represent EU members which include 12 EMU member countries. The econometric analysis employ a gravity model with 18 variables in order to determine their impact on trade flows. This is done through a regression with a log-log equation where the dependent variable is export. The other variables included are chosen to explain export flows among the EU members as well as their trade with EMU countries and the rest of the world. Furthermore, variables representing trade affinities are included to determine whether or not they have a significant effect on trade. The regression is divided into four time periods in order to more easily determine how the trade pattern in Europe have altered from the establishment of the EU and the EMU. The first time period represent an early state of EU membership, the second a mature state of EU membership, the third when EU was reformed and the fourth an early state of EMU membership. The regression results illustrate that the majority of the selected variables are significant but most importantly that the trade affinity variables are proven to have an impact on trade flows. The results also show that trade has increased and that in the case of EU membership it is more profitable to join than to remain outside. Moreover, the result show in par-ticular that countries that belong to the EMU have a stronger orientation of their exports to the rest of the world then other EU countries. For the latter, the European market is of prime importance.

Detta är en undersökning av Sveriges statsbesöks effekt på Sveriges export. För att mäta effekten använder jag mig av en empirisk modell, den så kallade handelsgravitationsmodellen. Jag finner att det är svårt att hitta starka och statistiskt signifikanta bevis på att Sveriges statsbesök har en positiv effekt på exporten. När man isolerar för statsbesök i Europa utanför Norden finner jag till och med tecken på att de kan ha en negativ effekt. Jag har även jämfört effekten av Sveriges statsbesök med effekten av Storbritanniens och funnit att Sverige har en generellt lägre effekt än Storbritannien, oavsett vilken modell som används.

This bachelor thesis aims to estimate Sweden’s export potential towards South-Korea since initial data indicates that Sweden has from 1997 up until 2005 been exporting less to South-Korea when compared to, in general, OECD. Furthermore, South-Korea seems to be a low prioritized market for Swedish firms in the East-Asian region. As many before us, we have used a basic gravity model, including GDP and distance in kilometer has been used as explanatory variables for the observed trade value. The dummy variable land-locked, to estimate trade potential for 15 commodity groups. Sweden was set to be the exporting country, South-Korea the importing country together with all the other OECD members, which were used as points of reference. The outcome of the gravity regression shows that distance and the dummy variable landlocked (if a country does not have access to open water) have a very strong relationship to the observed export data. However, GDP was proven to have a very weak relationship to the observed export data thus making the estimation process of trade potential for all, except one, commodity group biased. The gravity model has been widely criticized for inflating export potential due to misspecification a problem that we experienced when running our regression. Thus, from this study no strong conclusions can be drawn concerning the trade potential from Sweden to South-Korea.

An efficient air transport system is an important part of social and economic development of Southern African Development Community (SADC). Efficient intra-SADC air service connections enhance regional integration, access to the global economy, international tourism and contribute towards the vision to establish the African Economic Community by 2034. SADC, in July 1998, embarked on liberalisation of the regional civil aviation sector in order to enhance the efficiency of air transport services. In the United States of America and European Union, the liberalisation of air transport has transformed civil aviation networks. The fragmentation of air service connections on the intra-SADC network in the midst of the liberalisation process is symptomatic of a poor implementation strategy coupled with air transport market imperfections. The purpose of this thesis is to examine, understand and explain the factors that influence the disintegration of the intra-SADC air transport network .The aim is to identify how regional air transport services can be transformed to meet the social and economic demands of the region. This research adopts network theory, as the conceptual framework of the investigation. Assuming a graph approaching maximal connection as the sought after state of affairs for SADC; this study benchmarked the post liberalisation network structure to the regional economic communities of ASEAN and MERCOSUR. The aim of the benchmarking is to identify the extend of the differences in air transport network in those two regions, resulting from the policies adopted and to establish how the SADC policies may be improved and implemented more efficiently. The findings of the study are that, in comparison to the two developing regions, SADC’s liberalisation measures have failed. The study developed and evaluated an econometric model which analysed demand patterns on the intra-SADC passenger air transport network. Although low levels of passenger demand seem to characterise the majority of SADC city-pairs, the study identified nodes with sufficient demand to justify direct connections which would in turn reduce network fragmentation. This research also establishes that the absence of a realistic detailed roadmap, an ill-defined programme of action and inadequate resources contributed to the failure of SADC’s liberalisation strategy. In its final sections, this study proposes an ideal demand-driven network configuration and offers specific recommendations to SADC member states for that network to be functional. The proposed network improves network connectivity from the current poor levels, where a connectivity measure of 15% suggests underdevelopment, to levels over 40%. The study however, acknowledges that air transport liberalisation does not necessarily guarantee equitable distribution of network efficiency in developing regions. There are communities that cannot sustain commercially viable air service connections without economic subvention, probably in the form of the Public Service Obligation (PSO) programme adopted in the EU.

The purpose of this research was to empirically examine the impacts that the presence of a state trading enterprise (STE) has in the international wheat market. There are numerous types of STEs that function in different ways to achieve many different types of policy objectives which are often unique to a particular STE. Although the existence of a STE is justified by the countries involved using numerous policy rationales, the fear that they are used as a front for trade protectionism is a prevalent concern. One specific aspect of a STE that often brings this concern to the forefront is whether or not the STE has the exclusive privilege of monopoly status.<p>The empirical objective of this thesis was to determine specifically if the use of a STE exporter has had a positive impact on world wheat trade over the 1970 2005 period and if the use of a STE importer has had a negative impact. In addition, the marginal impact of the STE having monopoly status was tested. In all cases, the designation of STEs and their monopoly status is based on WTO notification documentations. To secure econometrically robust results, a modified conventional gravity model was chosen. This model was estimated using pooled OLS and fixed effects, the latter consisting of both time and country pair fixed effects. The data that was constructed was a large panel data set of bilateral wheat trade spanning from 1970 to 2005. The model was also tested on a number of subsamples representing countries at different stages of development and in different income categories to isolate potential differences in STEs objectives and impacts.<p>In virtually all models, the presence of a STE exporter had a strongly significant and positive effect on the value and volume of wheat exports from the country with the STE exporter. The fact that a STE had monopoly status did not have any additional impact on wheat trade. The impact of STE importers was insignificant.

This thesis aims to investigate the trade intensity between the Baltic States and the Nordic countries over a period of 14 years. The bilateral exports of 42 European countries are explored with the focus on the Baltic-Nordic trade. Since many previous studies provided support for the strong relationship between the Baltic States and the Nordic countries, this thesis aims to explore this relationship over time. The Baltic States after their independence, shifted their trade to the Western economies, including Nordic countries. The results reveal that the magnitude of the trade intensity between these two regions have become more important and is higher than expected. Furthermore, it is accounted for commodities of different values traded between the Baltic States and the Nordic countries by introducing dummy variables. It has been shown that the value of commodities is not very important in the Baltic-Nordic trade and therefore there is no trend over time.

Despite interest in the influence of religion on economic activity by early economists like Adam Smith, modern economists have done little research on the subject. In light of the apparent religious fervour in many parts of the global economy, economists' seeming lack of interest in studying how religious cultures enhance or retard the globalization of economic activity is especially surprising. In general, trade theories have given less weight towards the reason for trade explanation on demand side. As a contrary to H-O theory Linder had proposed a theoretically sound and empirically consistent trade theory with a new claim for the reasons why countries trade on the demand side. To fill this gap, I use international survey data on religiosity for a broad panel of countries trading with US to investigate the effects of church attendance and religious beliefs on trade. The beliefs are, in turn, the principal output of the religion sector, and the believer alignment to a specific denomination measures the inputs to this sector. Hence, I used an extended gravity model of international trade to control for a variety of factors that determine trade, and I used two regression methods, OLS and WLS, to exploit the model to its fullest. I find that the sharing of same religious cultures by people in different countries has a significantly positive influence on bilateral trade, all other things being equal. These results accord with a perspective in which religious beliefs influence individual traits that enhance trade and economic performance in general. And my attempt to magnify religion as a means to trade is only a derivation of Linder’s overlapping demand theory.

The purpose of this research was to empirically examine the impacts that the presence of a state trading enterprise (STE) has in the international wheat market. There are numerous types of STEs that function in different ways to achieve many different types of policy objectives which are often unique to a particular STE. Although the existence of a STE is justified by the countries involved using numerous policy rationales, the fear that they are used as a front for trade protectionism is a prevalent concern. One specific aspect of a STE that often brings this concern to the forefront is whether or not the STE has the exclusive privilege of monopoly status.<p>The empirical objective of this thesis was to determine specifically if the use of a STE exporter has had a positive impact on world wheat trade over the 1970 2005 period and if the use of a STE importer has had a negative impact. In addition, the marginal impact of the STE having monopoly status was tested. In all cases, the designation of STEs and their monopoly status is based on WTO notification documentations. To secure econometrically robust results, a modified conventional gravity model was chosen. This model was estimated using pooled OLS and fixed effects, the latter consisting of both time and country pair fixed effects. The data that was constructed was a large panel data set of bilateral wheat trade spanning from 1970 to 2005. The model was also tested on a number of subsamples representing countries at different stages of development and in different income categories to isolate potential differences in STEs objectives and impacts.<p>In virtually all models, the presence of a STE exporter had a strongly significant and positive effect on the value and volume of wheat exports from the country with the STE exporter. The fact that a STE had monopoly status did not have any additional impact on wheat trade. The impact of STE importers was insignificant.

This study explores the impact of economic downturn in the EU-27 on Syrian trade and the sensitivity of oil and petroleum products to this downturn. This is carried out using a derivation of the gravity model to determine the export demand. Syrian export with its top 30 trading partners as well as the EU-27 are taken into consideration along with various other trade determinants when measuring the changes in total export volume. The study finds that EU-27 is an important source of demand for Syria, but a downturn in the EU economy will not necessarily have a detrimental effect on Syrian economy. On the other hand, oil plays a far more important role on the country’s exports and its demand is less sensitive to economic fluctuations.