This work provides an empirical examination of the relationship between macroeconomics and finance. In particular, we exploit non linear econometric methods to analyse the information content of the term structure of interest rates. We find that both monetary and financial variables are useful to predict the future evolution of economic activity.

This thesis focuses on three vulnerable groups in Europe that have recently been highlighted both in media and in the economics literature; and that are policy priorities. Chapter 1 is a joint work with Giovanni Mastrobuoni which focuses on prisoners and peer effects in prison. Studies that estimate criminal peer effects need to define the reference group. Researchers usually use the amount of time inmates overlap in prison, sometimes in combination with nationality to define such groups. Yet, there is often little discussion about such assumptions, which could potentially have important effects on the estimates of peer effects. We show that the date of rearrest of inmates who spend time together in prison signals with some error co-offending, and can thus be used to measure reference groups. Exploiting recidivism data on inmates released after a mass pardon with a simple econometric model which adjusts the estimates for the misclassification errors, we document homophily in peer group formation with regards to age, nationality, and degrees of deterrence. There is no evidence of homophily with respect to education and employment status. Chapter 2 evaluates a policy in the English county of Essex that aims to reduce domestic abuse through informing high-risk suspects that they will be put under higher surveillance, hence increasing their probability of being caught in case of recidivism, and encouraging their victims to report. Using a Regression Discontinuity Design (RDD), it underlines that suspects that are targeted by the policy are more 9% more likely to be reported again for domestic abuse. Although increasing reporting is widely seen as essential to identify and protect victims, this paper shows that policies to increase reporting will deter crime only if they give rise to a legal response. Moreover, results highlight that increasing the reporting of events of that do not lead to criminal charges may create escalation and be more detrimental to the victim in the long run. Chapter 3 investigates how migrants in the United Kingdom respond to natural disasters in their home countries. Combining a household panel survey of migrants in the United Kingdom and natural disasters data, this paper first shows, in the UK context, that male migrants are more likely to remit in the wake of natural disasters. Then, it underlines that to fund remittances male migrants also increase labour supply, decrease monthly savings and leisure. By showing how migrants in the UK adjust their economic behaviours in response to an unexpected shocks i.e. natural disasters, this paper demonstrates both how UK migrants may fund remittances and that they have the capacity to adjust their economic behaviours to increase remittances.

This thesis provides a systematic study of currency crash risk and funding liquidity risk in carry trade strategy in the foreign exchange (FX) market. Carry trade, which involves longing currencies with high interest rate and shorting currencies with low interest rate, is a popular currency trading strategy in the FX market for obtaining annualized excess return as high as 12%. This thesis studies exchange rates of 9 currencies over 13 years from a microstructure perspective. We identify a global skewness factor and use it to measure the currency crash risk. Applying a portfolio approach in cross-sectional asset pricing, we find that global skewness factor explains more than 80% of carry trade excess returns. On the other hand, funding liquidity is effective in predicting the future currency crash risk. Funding liquidity explains more than 70% of carry trade excess returns. We also use the coefficient of price impact from customer order flows to measure the liquidity, which reveals heterogeneous information content possessed by different types of customers. We find that the order flow implied liquidity risk factor can explain a fraction of carry trade excess returns but with small risk premium on quarterly basis. We provide empirical evidence to show that the excess return and crash risk in carry trade is endogenous; i.e., the crash risk premium is inherent in carry trade process. As the natural condition widely affects all investors, we argue that funding constraints are effective in explaining the excess returns of carry trade. When capital moves smoothly in a liquid condition and investor have sufficient funding supply, carry trade is prosperous in the FX market. When investors hit their funding constraints, market-wide liquidity drop, which force the carry trade positions diminishing. The exchange rates respond as that the low interest rate currencies appreciate and high interest rate currencies depreciate, which exacerbates currency crash risk and induces large loss to carry traders. Our cross-sectional analysis provides empirical evidence to show that funding constraints helps to explain the forward premium puzzle and push the exchange rate shift back to the direction the UIP expects.

The opacity and riskiness of small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs) make them an interesting area for the study of banks’ lending practices and procedures. SMEs in Nigeria, like in many low and middle-income economies, face financing difficulties because they are relatively young, inexperienced and informationally opaque. Since the consolidation of the Nigerian banking industry in 2006, the share of commercial bank loans to SMEs has declined markedly despite the fact that Nigerian banks are well capitalized and are among the largest players in Sub-Saharan Africa. The researcher conducted a questionnaire survey to investigate the microstructure of SME lending decisions, policies and practices in Nigerian banks. Using a sample of 121 Nigerian bank lending officers, this study specifically investigates three research questions: (1) the demand and supply side constraints to bank involvement with SMEs (2) the determinants of loan contract terms (i.e. risk premium and collateralisation), and (3) the economic value to banks from investing in customer relationships. Results from analysis of survey responses reveal that the high incidence of loan diversion, weak management capacity and the inability of SMEs to service debts are chief contributory factors to the riskiness of SME loans in Nigeria. On the supply side, the high transaction costs associated with processing and monitoring small loans impact negatively on lending profitability. There are also constraints posed by regulation and the business environment. Most notably, the recent rise in yield on competing assets, such as government treasury bills, has led to the crowding out of private sector lending as Nigerian banks hold a sizeable proportion of their assets in relatively safer government securities, which tends to lower their appetite for lending to SMEs. The risk profile of the SME sector is further enhanced by poor information economics, infrastructural deficiencies, the inefficient credit referencing on business loans as well as the inability to enforce loans contracts due to legal and judicial constraints. The econometric results show that the determinants of risk premium on SME loans are largely connected with factors that underline the opacity and riskiness of SMEs in Nigeria. Customers with longer relationships with their bank tend to benefit from lower interest rates. What determines the likelihood of requesting collateral from SMEs varies significantly from bank to bank and is likely to be connected to the lenders’ specialization as well as differences in the business model and lending technologies used. Loan size, borrowing firm’s age and credit rating also determine the amount of collateral pledged. There is also evidence to suggest that the predominantly centralised lending strategy in Nigerian banks impacts negatively on the accumulation of soft information by loan officers, implying that not all information collected by the loan officers is utilised in taking lending decisions. However, the proprietary information (or knowledge) loan officers gather through frequent communication and interaction with their customers is likely to yield some potential benefits for Nigerian banks. The most dominant is the high probability that customer satisfaction from bank relationships will generate repeat business for the banks.

Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) is a well-established relative efficiency measurement technique, which has been widely applied to evaluate the technical efficiency of agricultural units in different countries by focusing on different aspects of agricultural production. This research deals with the evaluation of efficiency through DEA in non-homogeneous agricultural production, where units produce a wide range of different outputs. The objectives are threefold. Firstly, we propose a novel methodological approach of integrating the production trade-offs concept of DEA into non-homogeneous agricultural efficiency evaluation to prevent the overstatement of the efficiency of specialist farms and overcome the issue of insufficient discrimination due to large number of outputs in the models. Secondly, we aim to integrate this methodological perspective to the theory of elasticity measurement on DEA frontiers. The efficient frontiers of DEA are not defined in functional forms as in the classical economic theory, therefore obtaining elasticity measures on them require different considerations. We introduce the production trade-offs to the elasticity measurement and derive the necessary models to calculate the elasticities of response in the presence of production trade-offs. As a third objective, before moving to the introduction of the trade-offs in elasticity measurement, for theoretical completeness, we first consider the elasticity measurement on DEA frontiers of constant returns-to-scale (CRS) technologies. Our proposed methodology and all the developed elasticity theory are illustrated in a real world case of Turkish agricultural sectors. We provide extensive empirical applications covering all the proposed theory and methodology. Among the results of this research, we provide an elasticity measurement framework, which enables us to calculate elasticities of response measures in both VRS and CRS technologies, with or without production tradeoffs included. We observe that the integration of production trade-offs provide better discrimination of efficiency scores compared to the models without trade-offs included. We also investigate how changing production trade-offs affect the efficiency and elasticity measures of the evaluated units.

Economic theories of fertility transition were the dominant paradigm during the second half of the twentieth century, but in more recent years their relevance has been questioned and sociological or cultural explanations have become more popular in the demographic literature. In many cases theoretical perspectives have been abandoned all together in favour of an empirical approach leaving economists and demographers isolated from each other. Using data collected in Nepal as part of the World Bank‟s Living Standards Measurement Study, which includes large amounts of economic information at the household and individual level, the feasibility of the economic approach to fertility transition is tested in the context of rural Nepal. In order to do this it was necessary to check the quality of the Nepali fertility data. This was done and it was concluded that higher parity births tend to be underreported, while childlessness tends to be over-reported. It was also found that the quality of urban fertility data is suspect – rural fertility is focussed on throughout since it relates to economic variables in a substantively different way to urban fertility. The relationships between fertility and the main components of income in rural Nepal – agriculture and remittances – are studied. It is hypothesised that fertility and landholding are related through the land-security hypothesis and the land-labour hypothesis. The land-security hypothesis holds that owned landholding and children are substitutes because they are both forms of security, while the land-labour hypothesis holds that cultivated landholding and fertility are complements since children can assist in tilling the land. Remittances are purported to affect fertility through increasing son preference. This is because remittances provide security and sons send remittances. Support is found for all the hypothesised relationships. This implies that the people of rural Nepal value children for the economic benefits they can bring. The economic value of sons vastly outweighs that of daughters and the findings of this thesis indicate that increasing remittances and high levels of functionally landless households mean that son preference is unlikely to disappear soon. Overall, this research highlights that economic theories of fertility transition have been unjustly neglected and are important for our understanding of fertility determinants – they are therefore extremely relevant for both demographers and policy makers

The resource based view of firms suggests that they should invest into intangible assets such as absorptive capacity, R&D, networks, human capital and internationalisation. In particular, SMEs require more investment in knowledge based assets (e.g., R&D, networks) for higher labour productivity growth. The aim of this study is to identify and analyse the drivers of firm growth and their impact on firm labour productivity growth. Previous studies were limited in scope in terms of analysis (i.e., at firm level) of the software industry. For data collection, owner-managers of software firms were face-to-face interviewed using a structured questionnaire. The data were collected from two regions of Pakistan, Islamabad and Rawalpindi. Information was gathered on variables such as firm size, age, firm innovation activities, business and management factors, exporting, inward/outward FDI and so forth. Prior estimation factor analysis is used to extract core information from Likert scale variables. Lastly, stepwise multiple regression analysis is used to examine the relationship between drivers of firm growth and labour productivity growth. The regression analysis examined firm size, access to finance, internationalisation (exporting and outward FDI), business improvement methods and knowledge management have a positive impact on firm labour productivity growth. In comparison, R&D, absorptive capacity, shortage of skills generally have negative relationship to firm labour productivity growth. In summary, empirical findings emphasise the importance of knowledge based assets for higher firm labour productivity growth as a low level of R&D, lack of access to finance, poor absorptive capacity, high sunk costs (non recoverable) and skills shortage reduced the labour productivity growth of software firms.

This PhD thesis contains three main chapters on macro finance, with a focus on the term structure of interest rates and the applications of state-of-the-art Bayesian econometrics. Except for Chapter 1 and Chapter 5, which set out the general introduction and conclusion, each of the chapters can be considered as a standalone piece of work. In Chapter 2, we model and predict the term structure of US interest rates in a data rich environment. We allow the model dimension and parameters to change over time, accounting for model uncertainty and sudden structural changes. The proposed timevarying parameter Nelson-Siegel Dynamic Model Averaging (DMA) predicts yields better than standard benchmarks. DMA performs better since it incorporates more macro-finance information during recessions. The proposed method allows us to estimate plausible realtime term premia, whose countercyclicality weakened during the financial crisis. Chapter 3 investigates global term structure dynamics using a Bayesian hierarchical factor model augmented with macroeconomic fundamentals. More than half of the variation in the bond yields of seven advanced economies is due to global co-movement. Our results suggest that global inflation is the most important factor among global macro fundamentals. Non-fundamental factors are essential in driving global co-movements, and are closely related to sentiment and economic uncertainty. Lastly, we analyze asymmetric spillovers in global bond markets connected to diverging monetary policies. Chapter 4 proposes a no-arbitrage framework of term structure modeling with learning and model uncertainty. The representative agent considers parameter instability, as well as the uncertainty in learning speed and model restrictions. The empirical evidence shows that apart from observational variance, parameter instability is the dominant source of predictive variance when compared with uncertainty in learning speed or model restrictions. When accounting for ambiguity aversion, the out-of-sample predictability of excess returns implied by the learning model can be translated into significant and consistent economic gains over the Expectations Hypothesis benchmark.

This thesis aims to examine a number of issues related to exchange rate movements at different time horizons: long-run, in terms of investigating equilibrium real exchange rates; medium-run, in terms of investigating predictability of exchange rates in out-of-sample forecasting contexts; and short-run, in terms of studying high-frequency exchange rate dynamics in the actual foreign exchange trading. Specifically, we reassess four topics concerning exchange rate movements through macroeconomic fundamental analysis and microstructure approaches to exchange rates. With macro approaches, our study demonstrates, in a panel data setting, the link between real exchange rates and net foreign asset could be through the association between real exchange rates and trade balance. The panel study indicates the heterogeneity, in terms of the association between real exchange rates and trade balance, between the OECD economies and less mature economies. Our study on the monetary exchange rate model indicates the monetary model can describe the long-run behaviour of nominal exchange rates. Furthermore, we find the short-term exchange rate deviation adjustments to equilibrium and nonlinearities involved in the association between exchange rates and monetary fundamentals. With micro approaches, our study demonstrates, in short run, order flow has a significant impact on the contemporaneous exchange rate dynamics. However, we observe the prediction of order flow on the future exchange rate is quite weak. Our study also finds the weak interaction between macro news and private information in the exchange rate volatility study.

This thesis develops a variety of econometric approaches in order to examine model specification and weighting choices in an era when computational power and efficiency is becoming less of a binding constraint and 'big data' becomes widely available. We apply our methodological contributions to housing markets, given their recently verified importance with regard to international financial stability. In particular, we develop two original forecasting routines based on high dimensional datasets, take simulated and empirical approaches to specifying large sets of spatial weighting matrices and we contrast structural (panel and single country based) vector autoregressions which are identified and analyzed in a number of ways. The appendices are reserved for introducing published econometric software and replication codes developed as a by-product of the main body of work.