As áreas urbanas precárias, também denominadas de favelas são as mais frequentemente afetadas por escorregamentos e também as mais vulneráveis, gerando danos sociais de maior monta. Este cenário resultou na demanda e no desenvolvimento de uma série de ações do poder público em diferentes municípios e estados brasileiros, culminando com o estabelecimento de um programa federal, vinculado ao Ministério das Cidades, voltado à mitigação destes riscos com o desenvolvimento de mapeamentos e a implantação de planos preventivos de defesa civil, de obras de estabilização e de reurbanização nestas áreas de risco. No estado de São Paulo, o mapeamento de escorregamento em encostas urbanas precárias vem sendo realizado desde 1990, através das iniciativas de órgãos públicos e com a participação de diversas instituições. O método de mapeamento atualmente mais utilizado emprega como técnicas principais a realização de vistorias sistemáticas de campo, investigações de superfície, utilização de fichas descritivas para armazenar as informações coletadas e a delimitação de setores de risco em imagens aéreas recentes e de grande escala e de detalhe. Este método é bastante aplicado e muitas vezes consegue subsidiar satisfatoriamente as ações de mitigação dos riscos de escorregamentos, indicando os locais prioritários para receberem estas ações. Por outro lado, o método também é questionado pelo meio técnico devido sua abordagem qualitativa, pela pouca utilização dos métodos clássicos de mapeamento geotécnico e de análise de estabilidade de taludes e pelo grau elevado de subjetividade que pode agregar, podendo produzir resultados de baixa confiabilidade. A contribuição da presente pesquisa é o aprimoramento do método de mapeamento de perigo e de risco de escorregamentos em áreas urbanas, diminuindo a subjetividade na comparação e na hierarquização dos setores, sem modificar sua abordagem fundamental e suas técnicas principais atualmente utilizadas. Para tornar o método mais sistemático, propõe-se incorporar o Processo de Análise Hierárquica (AHP) na análise dos indicadores e na hierarquização dos setores de perigo. Comparou-se o mapeamento de perigo com a aplicação do AHP com o mapeamento de risco de escorregamentos realizado em São Sebastião (SP) pelo IG-SMA em 2005, verificando-se que os resultados do mapeamento de perigo com a aplicação do AHP foram mais conservadores em algumas áreas. Entretanto, os resultados com a aplicação do AHP, diminuiu a subjetividade e evidenciou a facilidade e praticidade em se verificar a contribuição (em forma de peso) dos indicadores de perigo na classificação do perigo nos setores mapeados. Também foram analisadas as opiniões de três especialistas nos julgamentos paritários dos indicadores de perigo de escorregamentos. Os resultados não mostraram discrepâncias na classificação do perigo. / The poor urban areas, also called slums are the most frequently affected by landslides and also the most vulnerable, leading to greater social harm mounts. This situation pushed a series of actions by public authorities in several Brazilian cities and states. In the federal level was, established a program, under the auspice of the Ministry of Cities, aimed to mitigating these risks with the development of hazard and risk mapping projects and implementation of preventive plans for civil defense, works of stabilization and redevelopment in these areas of risk. In the State of São Paulo, the landslide mapping on poor and slum urban areas has been held since 1990 in several municipalities, through the initiatives of government agencies and with the participation of many institutions. The mapping method employs currently more used as main techniques to carry out systematic field surveys, surface investigations, use of fact sheets to store the information collected and the delimitation of areas of hazard and risk in aerial images, and recent large-scale and detail. This mapping method has been widely applied and often gave satisfactorily support to the initiatives to mitigate the risks of landslides, indicating the prior sites to receive those initiatives. Nevertheless, the method is questioned by the specialists because of its qualitative approach, the lack of use of traditional methods of geological and geotechnical investigation and analysis of slope stability and the high degree of subjectivity that sometimes can produce unreliable results. The expected contribution to this research is to enhance the method of hazard mapping and risk of landslides in poor and slum urban areas by reducing its subjectivity for the comparison and ranking of sectors. It is not the intent of the research to change, its fundamental approach and its main techniques currently used. To this end, it is proposed to incorporate to the method the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) in the systematic analysis of the indicators and the ranking of hazard sectors. We compared the hazard mapping with the application of the AHP and landslide risk mapping conducted in São Sebastião - SP by the IG-SMA in 2005, verifying that the results of the hazard mapping in the application of the AHP were more conservative in some areas. However, the results from the application of the AHP, decreased the subjectivity and demonstrated the ease and convenience to verify the contribution (in the form of weight) of the hazard indicators in the ranking of hazard in the areas mapped. We also analyzed the opinions of three experts in the trials of parity landslides hazard indicators. The results showed no discrepancies in the ranking of hazard.

Earthquake-induced landslides are a significant seismic hazard that can generate large economic losses. Predicting earthquake-induced landslides often involves an assessment of the expected sliding displacement induced by the ground shaking. A deterministic approach is commonly used for this purpose. This approach predicts sliding displacements using the expected ground shaking and the best-estimate slope properties (i.e., soil shear strengths, ground water conditions and thicknesses of sliding blocks), and does not consider the aleatory variability in predictions of ground shaking or sliding displacements or the epistemic uncertainties in the slope properties. In this dissertation, a probabilistic framework for predicting the sliding displacement of flexible sliding masses during earthquakes is developed. This framework computes a displacement hazard curve using: (1) a ground motion hazard curve from a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis, (2) a model for predicting the dynamic response of the sliding mass, (3) a model for predicting the sliding response of the sliding mass, and (4) a logic tree that incorporates the uncertainties in the various input parameters. The developed probabilistic framework for flexible sliding masses is applied to a slope at a site in California. The results of this analysis show that the displacements predicted by the probabilistic approach are larger than the deterministic approach due to the influence of the uncertainties in the slope properties. Reducing these uncertainties can reduce the predicted displacements. Regional maps of seismic landslide potential are used in land-use planning and to identify zones that require detailed, site-specific studies. Current seismic landslide hazard mapping efforts typically utilize deterministic approaches to estimate rigid sliding block displacements and identify potential slope failures. A probabilistic framework that uses displacement hazard curves and logic-tree analysis is developed for regional seismic landslide mapping efforts. A computationally efficient approach is developed that allows the logic-tree approach to be applied for regional analysis. Anchorage, Alaska is used as a study area to apply the developed approach. With aleatory variability and epistemic uncertainties considered, the probabilistic map shows that the area of high/very high hazard of seismic landslides increases by a factor of 3 compared with a deterministic map. / text

As áreas urbanas precárias, também denominadas de favelas são as mais frequentemente afetadas por escorregamentos e também as mais vulneráveis, gerando danos sociais de maior monta. Este cenário resultou na demanda e no desenvolvimento de uma série de ações do poder público em diferentes municípios e estados brasileiros, culminando com o estabelecimento de um programa federal, vinculado ao Ministério das Cidades, voltado à mitigação destes riscos com o desenvolvimento de mapeamentos e a implantação de planos preventivos de defesa civil, de obras de estabilização e de reurbanização nestas áreas de risco. No estado de São Paulo, o mapeamento de escorregamento em encostas urbanas precárias vem sendo realizado desde 1990, através das iniciativas de órgãos públicos e com a participação de diversas instituições. O método de mapeamento atualmente mais utilizado emprega como técnicas principais a realização de vistorias sistemáticas de campo, investigações de superfície, utilização de fichas descritivas para armazenar as informações coletadas e a delimitação de setores de risco em imagens aéreas recentes e de grande escala e de detalhe. Este método é bastante aplicado e muitas vezes consegue subsidiar satisfatoriamente as ações de mitigação dos riscos de escorregamentos, indicando os locais prioritários para receberem estas ações. Por outro lado, o método também é questionado pelo meio técnico devido sua abordagem qualitativa, pela pouca utilização dos métodos clássicos de mapeamento geotécnico e de análise de estabilidade de taludes e pelo grau elevado de subjetividade que pode agregar, podendo produzir resultados de baixa confiabilidade. A contribuição da presente pesquisa é o aprimoramento do método de mapeamento de perigo e de risco de escorregamentos em áreas urbanas, diminuindo a subjetividade na comparação e na hierarquização dos setores, sem modificar sua abordagem fundamental e suas técnicas principais atualmente utilizadas. Para tornar o método mais sistemático, propõe-se incorporar o Processo de Análise Hierárquica (AHP) na análise dos indicadores e na hierarquização dos setores de perigo. Comparou-se o mapeamento de perigo com a aplicação do AHP com o mapeamento de risco de escorregamentos realizado em São Sebastião (SP) pelo IG-SMA em 2005, verificando-se que os resultados do mapeamento de perigo com a aplicação do AHP foram mais conservadores em algumas áreas. Entretanto, os resultados com a aplicação do AHP, diminuiu a subjetividade e evidenciou a facilidade e praticidade em se verificar a contribuição (em forma de peso) dos indicadores de perigo na classificação do perigo nos setores mapeados. Também foram analisadas as opiniões de três especialistas nos julgamentos paritários dos indicadores de perigo de escorregamentos. Os resultados não mostraram discrepâncias na classificação do perigo. / The poor urban areas, also called slums are the most frequently affected by landslides and also the most vulnerable, leading to greater social harm mounts. This situation pushed a series of actions by public authorities in several Brazilian cities and states. In the federal level was, established a program, under the auspice of the Ministry of Cities, aimed to mitigating these risks with the development of hazard and risk mapping projects and implementation of preventive plans for civil defense, works of stabilization and redevelopment in these areas of risk. In the State of São Paulo, the landslide mapping on poor and slum urban areas has been held since 1990 in several municipalities, through the initiatives of government agencies and with the participation of many institutions. The mapping method employs currently more used as main techniques to carry out systematic field surveys, surface investigations, use of fact sheets to store the information collected and the delimitation of areas of hazard and risk in aerial images, and recent large-scale and detail. This mapping method has been widely applied and often gave satisfactorily support to the initiatives to mitigate the risks of landslides, indicating the prior sites to receive those initiatives. Nevertheless, the method is questioned by the specialists because of its qualitative approach, the lack of use of traditional methods of geological and geotechnical investigation and analysis of slope stability and the high degree of subjectivity that sometimes can produce unreliable results. The expected contribution to this research is to enhance the method of hazard mapping and risk of landslides in poor and slum urban areas by reducing its subjectivity for the comparison and ranking of sectors. It is not the intent of the research to change, its fundamental approach and its main techniques currently used. To this end, it is proposed to incorporate to the method the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) in the systematic analysis of the indicators and the ranking of hazard sectors. We compared the hazard mapping with the application of the AHP and landslide risk mapping conducted in São Sebastião - SP by the IG-SMA in 2005, verifying that the results of the hazard mapping in the application of the AHP were more conservative in some areas. However, the results from the application of the AHP, decreased the subjectivity and demonstrated the ease and convenience to verify the contribution (in the form of weight) of the hazard indicators in the ranking of hazard in the areas mapped. We also analyzed the opinions of three experts in the trials of parity landslides hazard indicators. The results showed no discrepancies in the ranking of hazard.

No description available.

Thesis (MEng)--Stellenbosch University, 2015. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Tana River, the largest river in Kenya, is an important habit that supports numerous types of life, which creates an attractive environment. Occasionally loss of life and damage to property are experienced during floods. Upstream development of hydropower generation dams without consideration of downstream impacts is well documented in literature and the aftermaths are being well exhibited currently. The aim of the thesis is to investigate and identify factors that affect the flood levels in the Tana River Delta by using a two dimensional model and eventually drawing up a velocity- water depth interaction hazard classification map. Reviews of the literature clearly established that the floods in the delta are not generated by internal rainfall only but also operation of upstream dams accounting for 95% of the flood levels. Consequently, investigations of the impacts of dams have on flow regime were carried out. Probabilistic analysis revealed that post dam seasonal patterns has not been impacted but the magnitude of flood peaks has generally declined due to the attenuation of small peaks. However, large/flash floods (10 year Annual Recurrence Interval (ARI) spill at the dams causing major flooding downstream. Further probabilistic analysis on river discharges and sea water level was carried out to determine various ARI peaks. This incorporated climate change based on the 4th IPCC report. A two-dimensional hydrodynamic model was set up and calibrated with recorded discharges and theoretically derived parameters. Impacts of extreme tidal levels were investigated on the water levels and other factors limiting flood propagation. Finally, the model was used to simulate the 2, 50 and 100 year ARI inclusive of climate change floods and, based on Australian guidelines, flood lines and hazard maps were drawn. The results show that high tides elevate water levels in the delta in combination with the bottleneck effect at the rechanneled canal. The road crossing through the delta has inadequate bridges to convey the floods. The derived flood maps drawn (Figure 6-4) highlight that settlements in the lower delta are located within the 2 year ARI flood lines and that the extent of flooding is similar or less so in 50 and 100 year ARI flood peaks simulated. The model predicted the velocity and water depths with sufficient accuracy and recommendations are made that the study area should be extended upstream, and more field data should be collected to aid in calibration and that land use should be incorporated in flood map classification. In conclusion, the thesis has identified the flood hotspots and factors governing floods. These findings could assist in decision making by various agencies proposing flood mitigation or advocating post dam flooding scenarios. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die Tanarivier is die grootste rivier in Kenia en ’n belangrike habitat vir verskeie tipes diere en plante wat ‘n aantreklike omgewing skep.Verlies aan lewens en skade aan eiendom vind egter somtyds tydens oorstromings plaas. Die bou van damme vir die ontwikkeling van hidrokrag hoër op in die rivier sonder om die impak laer af in ag te neem, asook die gevolge daarvan, word dikwels in die lireratuur beskryf. Die doel met hierdie tesis is om die faktore wat die vloedhoogtes in die Tanarivier beïnvloed met die gebruik van ’n twee-dimensionele hidrodinamiese model te ondersoek en te identifiseer en om dan ’n gevaarsonekaart te teken wat die interaksie tussen waterspoed en -diepte toon. Die oorsig van die literatuur het getoon dat die oorstromings in die delta nie die gevolg is van reën in die binneland nie, maar dat die damme hoër op in die rivier verantwoordelik is vir 95% van die oorstromings. Dus is die impak van die damme op oorstromings ondersoek. Waarskynlikheidsontleding het oor die algemeen getoon dat die na-dam seisoenale vloeipatrone nie beinvloed is nie, maar dat veral die kleiner vloedpieke in die algemeen afgeneem het as gevolg van vloedattenuasie deur die damme. Groter en frats oorstromings (>1:10 ARI) veroorsaak egter steeds dat die damme oorloop en lei tot ernstige oorstromings. Die verdere waarskynlikheidsontleding van riviervloei en die seewatervlak is uitgevoer om die verskillende Jaarlikse Herhaling Periode (JHP) vlakke vas te stel. Dit het klimaatsverandering gegrond op die 4de IPCC verslag ingesluit. ʼn Twee dimensionele hidrodinamiese model is opgestel en gekalibreer teen waargenome vloei en teoreties-afgeleide parameters is gekalibreer. Die impak van uiterste getyvlakke asook faktore wat die oorstromings beperk is ondersoek. Die model is toe gebruik om die 2, 50 en 100 JHP vloedoorstromings te simuleer en vloedlyne en gevaarkaarte is volgens die Australiese riglyne geteken. Die resultate toon dat hooggety die watervlak in die delta laat styg veral in kombinasie met die bottelnek effek van die nuwe kanaal. Daar is te min brûe op die pad wat die delta deurkruis, om die vloede se vloei deur te laat Die kaarte wat geteken is toon dat daar nedersettings in die laer delta binne die 2 JHP jaar vloedarea is en dat die omvang van oorstromings dieselfde of laer is as die 50 en 100 JHP jaar vloedpieke wat gesimuleer is. Die model kan gebruik word om die vloeispoed en waterdieptes redelik akkuraat te voorspel en die volgende aanbevelings word gemaak. Toestande hoër op teen die rivier moet ondersoek word, meer data wat gedurende kalibrasie gebruik kan word moet versamel word en grondgebruik moet in die kaartklassifikasie ingesluit word. Ten slotte is die gevaarpunte vir oorstromings en die faktore wat oorstromings veroorsaak aangetoon. Hierdie bevindinge kan van nut wees as besluite geneem moet word veral wat betref die voorkoming van oorstromings nadat damme gebou is.

Respirable dust, carbon dioxide, ammonia, hydrogen sulfide, and carbon monoxide concentrations were measured using fixed-area monitoring and contaminant mapping in a 19–crate farrowing room during the winter. Direct–reading instruments were used with fixed–area stations and contaminant mapping to evaluate concentrations during five days over a period of a three–week farrowing cycle. Concentrations were evaluated to determine the effect of the pit ventilation on contaminant concentrations, a change in concentration occurred over a sample day, and to determine if three data collection methods produce different daily respirable dust concentrations. Pit ventilation did have a significant effect on contaminant concentration in a farrowing barn during winter. Compared to when the pit fan was on, mean area contaminant concentration, with the exception of CO, was significantly higher when the pit fan was turned off (p<0.001). Mean respirable dust concentration was 79% higher, CO2 concentration was 35% higher, NH3 increased from 0.03 ppm to 10.8 ppm, and H2S concentrations increased from 0.03 ppm to 0.67 ppm. A significant change in area respirable dust (p<0.001) and CO2 (p<0.001) mean concentrations occurred over time throughout the course of a sample day. Mean area respirable dust concentrations were highest in the beginning of the sample day and decreased by 77 % (pit fan off) to 87% (pit fan on) over a five–hour sample period. Higher concentrations were likely attributed to the feeding period that occurred early in the day. When the pit fan was turned off, mean area CO2 concentrations increased by 24% by the end of the sample day due to the inefficient ventilation and the constant production of CO2 generated by the swine. Finally, comparing the three data collection methods produced similar results concerning the ranking of the daily mean concentrations of respirable dust; however, differences were seen in the magnitude of the daily average respirable dust concentrations across the three data collection methods, which might lead to different interpretations of risk. To ensure risk is not underestimated, multiple fixed–area monitors are recommended to characterize room concentrations. Throughout the study, contaminant concentration did not exceed regulatory or international consensus standards; however, recommended agricultural health limits suggested in the literature were exceeded for respirable dust, CO2, and NH3. These findings indicate the need to consider personal exposures to those working in farrowing barns and control options to reduce these contaminant concentrations in production facilities.

Thesis (M.A.)--Miami University, Dept. of Geography, 2007. / Title from first page of PDF document. Includes bibliographical references (p. 67-72).

The rigid sliding-block analysis introduced by Newmark in 1965 has become a popular method for assessing the stability of slopes during earthquakes. Estimates of sliding displacement calculated using this methodology serve as an index of seismic performance and are used for mapping seismic landslide hazard potential. The original approach of rigorously integrating ground acceleration time-histories to compute estimates of sliding displacement has been replaced by the use of simple, empirical models that predict displacement as a function of a slope's yield acceleration and one or more measures of ground shaking. To be useful the results of these models must be compared with observations of landslides from previous earthquakes. Seven different empirical models were evaluated by comparing predicted displacements with an inventory of observed landslides from the 1994 Northridge, California earthquake. Using a comprehensive set of ground motion data and shear strength properties from the Northridge earthquake, sliding displacements were calculated within a geographic information system (GIS) and the accuracy of each model was computed. The influence of factors such as landslide size, geologic unit, slope angle, and material strength on the prediction of landslides was also evaluated. The results were used to show that the accuracy of the predictive models depends less on the model used and more on the uncertainty in the model parameters, specifically the assigned shear strength values. Because current approaches do not take into account the spatial variability of strength within individual geologic units, the accuracy of the predictive models is controlled by the distribution of slope angles within observed and predicted landslide cells. Assigning overly conservative (low) shear strength values results in a higher percentage of landslides accurately identified, but also results in a large over-estimation of the seismic landslide hazard. / text

The construction industry has consistently suffered the highest number of fatalities among all human involved industries over the years. Safety managers struggle to prevent injuries and fatalities by monitoring at-risk behavior exhibited by workers and equipment operators. Current methods of identifying and reporting potential hazards on site involve periodic manual inspection, which depends upon personal judgment, is prone to human error, and consumes enormous time and resources. This research presents a framework for automatic identification and analysis of potential hazards by analyzing spatio-temporal data from construction resources. The scope of the research is limited to human-equipment interactions in outdoor construction sites involving ground workers and heavy equipment. A grid-based mapping technique is developed to quantify and visualize potentially hazardous regions caused by resource interactions on a construction site. The framework is also implemented to identify resources that are exposed to potential risk based on their interaction with other resources. Cases of proximity and blind spots are considered in order to create a weight-based scoring approach for mapping hazards on site. The framework is extended to perform ``what-if'' safety analysis for operation planning by iterating through multiple resource configurations. The feasibility of using both real and simulated data is explored. A sophisticated data management and operation analysis platform and a cell-based simulation engine are developed to support the process. This framework can be utilized to improve on-site safety awareness, revise construction site layout plans, and evaluate the need for warning or training workers and equipment operators. It can also be used as an education and training tool to assist safety managers in making better, more effective, and safer decisions.

La presente investigación se centra en la generación de mapas de peligro por la simulación del vertido de relaves por rotura de la presa del depósito de relaves en estado pulpa ubicada en el distrito de Chocó, en Colombia mediante un modelo hidrológico – hidráulico, y la posterior clasificación de los mapas de inundación y velocidad en niveles de peligrosidad. Este tipo de simulaciones requieren de un modelo numérico capaz de analizar y desarrollar el comportamiento de un flujo hiperconcentrado en la llanura de inundación aguas abajo. Las ecuaciones que controlan el movimiento de estos tipos de flujos son las aplicadas para fluidos no newtonianos, los cuales están controlados por los parámetros reológicos, como: viscosidad dinámica, esfuerzo de fluencia y la tasa de corte. Es por ello que se ha escogido el software FLO-2D el cual cuenta con facilidad de ingreso de datos y geometría, estabilidad de rutina computacional y la facilidad de lectura de archivos de salida. Los resultados obtenidos de la simulación en el distrito de Chocó muestran de manera didáctica la delimitación de zonas de riesgo de acuerdo a la clasificación de peligro en torno a velocidades y tirantes máximos. Eso nos permitió reconocer las estructuras que comprendidas en las zonas de alto riesgo. Estos mapas de peligro servirán como herramientas para evaluaciones de alcance social, ambiental y económico y la consideración y elección de medidas a corto, mediano y largo plazo, y de carácter tanto estructural, como no estructural. / This research focuses on the generation of hazard maps by simulating the discharge of tailings due to breakage of the dam of the pulp tailings deposit located in the Chocó district, in Colombia, using a hydrological-hydraulic model, and the subsequent classification of the flood and speed maps in danger levels. These types of simulations require a numerical model capable of analyzing and developing the behavior of a hyperconcentrated flow in the downstream floodplain. The equations that control the movement of these types of flows are those applied for non-Newtonian fluids, which are controlled by the rheological parameters, such as: dynamic viscosity, creep stress and the shear rate. That is why the FLO-2D software has been chosen which has ease of data entry and geometry, computational routine stability and ease of reading output files. The results obtained from the simulation in the Chocó district didactically show the delimitation of risk areas according to the hazard classification around maximum speeds and braces. This allowed us to recognize the structures included in high risk areas. These hazard maps will serve as tools for evaluations of social, environmental and economic scope and the consideration and choice of short, medium and long-term measures, both structural and non-structural. / Tesis