Master-Arbeit Univ. St. Gallen, 2008.

Zugl.: Mannheim, Universiẗat, Diss., 2008.

Master-Arbeit Univ. St. Gallen, 2008.

Hedge fund managers are characterised as either market timers or asset pickers . Their superior performance can be attributed to either timing skill, selection ability or a combination of both. In the existing literature, average hedge fund performance across the entire time span under investigation is usually investigated and measured, and hence, potentially certain subtle but important features exhibited in different time periods can be averaged out in the analysis. This thesis investigates the structural breaks in the selection ability and timing skill of hedge fund managers. This research issue is of particular importance when the hedge fund performance before, during and after the recent financial crisis is compared and contrasted. This thesis conducts a structural break analysis of hedge fund managers performance in relation to market-wide liquidity and liquidity commonality in the foreign exchange (FX) market. Liquidity commonality captures the co-movement of individual asset liquidities. The measure adopted in the existing literature has several limitations. This thesis proposes a new measure, termed the Beta Index, which is derived from the time-varying exposure of individual liquidities to market liquidity movements. It is shown that the developed Beta Index is more able to identify the level of liquidity commonality in the FX market. It is also more flexible in measuring commonality with different data sampling frequency. The obtained empirical results have some practical implications. They show that the selection skill and timing ability of hedge fund managers are subject to regime switches. Under severe market conditions, most hedge fund managers possess the skill to time FX market-wide liquidity and are able to reduce losses from the FX market by reducing their funds FX exposure prior to the FX market-wide liquidity deteriorations. In the meantime, most hedge fund managers are able to deliver excess returns from time to time due to their selection ability. However, when sudden shocks of crisis occur, they fail to forecast the unexpected behaviour in the price of individual assets underlying the funds and display unsuccessful selection ability. In addition, the results suggest that many hedge funds are exposed to the FX liquidity commonality risk which impairs hedging strategies and diversification performance.

Abstract This doctoral thesis aims to contribute to the literature on hedge fund performance and risk by conducting four interrelated essays. The first two essays measure and predict hedge fund performance using novel methodologies based on recent development in portfolio choice techniques. This new way to evaluate fund performance relies on economic theory and robust econometric principles. The first essay exploits hedge fund characteristics in order to pick right funds into a portfolio, whereas the second essay predicts hedge fund performance using conditional information that is contained in macroeconomic variables. The empirical analysis shows that the proposed conditional real-time portfolio strategies deliver significant outperformance over the unconditional benchmark strategy which does not utilize conditional information. The third essay investigates whether a particular hedge fund with specific fund characteristics contributes to systemic risk and how hedge funds with a high systemic risk contribution perform during the times of financial distress. The findings suggest that the fund’s capital structure is related to its systemic risk contribution, and, furthermore, that hedge funds with a high systemic risk contribution tend to deliver extremely poor performance during the times of financial distress. The fourth essay examines the impact of share restrictions on hedge fund performance and risk-taking. The essay finds that hedge funds with a lockup period tend to take excess risk that is not compensated when performance is measured as a unit of risk taken by the hedge fund. In addition, the length of notice periods increases along with the illiquidity level of fund investments. Finally, hedge funds with a long notice period seem to be able to earn an illiquidity premium.

Master of Agribusiness / Department of Agricultural Economics / Allen M. Featherstone / It is often argued that women have a tendency to be more risk averse than men. This thesis looks deeper into this sophisticated relationship between women, men and money, and investigates the gender differences among U.S. hedge fund managers. Prior research has considered the relationship between mutual fund performance and fund manager characteristics focusing on age, tenure, and level of education. However, none of these previous studies have looked in depth at the hedge fund arena. I hypothesize that female fund managers take less risk and follow less extreme investment styles that remain more constant over time. This suggests that less trading by female managers takes place with lower portfolio turnover, and results in superior net returns. I expected female money managers to be less overconfident and therefore would then trade less. Despite the similarities between female and male managers, I found evidence supporting my hypothesis that gender does indeed influence the decision making process for both investors and the hedge fund management companies.