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Evaluation of CMIP5 historical simulations in the Colorado River BasinJanuary 2018 (has links)
abstract: The Colorado River Basin (CRB) is the primary source of water in the
southwestern United States. A key step to reduce the uncertainty of future streamflow
projections in the CRB is to evaluate the performance of historical simulations of General
Circulation Models (GCMs). In this study, this challenge is addressed by evaluating the
ability of nineteen GCMs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase Five
(CMIP5) and four nested Regional Climate Models (RCMs) in reproducing the statistical
properties of the hydrologic cycle and temperature in the CRB. To capture the transition
from snow-dominated to semiarid regions, analyses are conducted by spatially averaging
the climate variables in four nested sub-basins. Most models overestimate the mean
annual precipitation (P) and underestimate the mean annual temperature (T) at all
locations. While a group of models capture the mean annual runoff at all sub-basins with
different strengths of the hydrological cycle, another set of models overestimate the mean
annual runoff, due to a weak cycle in the evaporation channel. An abrupt increase in the
mean annual T in observed and most of the simulated time series (~0.8 °C) is detected at
all locations despite the lack of any statistically significant monotonic trends for both P
and T. While all models simulate the seasonality of T quite well, the phasing of the
seasonal cycle of P is fairly reproduced in just the upper, snow-dominated sub-basin.
Model performances degrade in the larger sub-basins that include semiarid areas, because
several GCMs are not able to capture the effect of the North American monsoon. Finally,
the relative performances of the climate models in reproducing the climatologies of P and
T are quantified to support future impact studies in the basin. / Dissertation/Thesis / Masters Thesis Civil, Environmental and Sustainable Engineering 2018
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Možnosti využití nových medií v oblasti formálního vzdělávaní: Případová studie návrhu historické simulace / The use of new media in formal education: A case study of design of the historical simulationLekovski, Michael January 2012 (has links)
Thesis was developed as a model specification for a design of historical simulation applied in formal education. The text is divided into two main parts: The theoretical part summarizes findings about the role of new media in e-learning and its potential enrichment for gamification elements. Also mentions computer game as a research subject and points to the game mechanics that can be used in formal education to a successful application DGBL - Digital Game-Based Learning in this process. Practical part presents case study of a model specification that is based on the real project: 'Stories from the History of Czechoslovakia: Research and experimental development of software simulations to teach the history of the Czech lands in the 20th Century", solved by Faculty of Arts and Facility of Mathematics and Physics of Charles University and Institute of Contemporary History of Academy of Sciences of Czech Republic in Prague in 2011- 2014. In this section are addressed by specific examples of model applications of gamification elements with a view to achieving the educational goals of teaching simulation.
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