When it comes to assessing the historicity of religious figures, the methodology used by the academy is severely outdated, disjointed, and unsound. Bayes' Theorem, first used with a historical analysis by Richard Carrier in 2014 in relation to the historicity of Jesus, is a methodologically sound vehicle with which to examine what we have all simply, in the past, accepted. This paper addresses the historicity of the Buddha, and its implication on the early śramanic origin stories, by Bayes' Theorem.