Esta tesis esta compuesta por tres capítulos. Los dos primeros capítulos estudian los efectos macroeconómicos de una consolidación fiscal y estímulos fiscales cuando la deuda privada es elevada. El tercer capítulo, estudia proyecciones de deuda púbica para el caso español bajo diferentes escenarios macroeconómicos. En el primer capítulo se analiza los efectos macroeconómicos de diferentes planes de consolidación fiscal en los que el gobierno reduce de forma gradual la ratio deuda pública-PIB y el sector privado está altamente endeudado. Lo resultados muestran que en el largo plazo, la consolidación fiscal genera beneficios en términos de output que son mayores en el caso en el que el sector público este altamente endeudado. En el corto plazo, la efectividad de la política fiscal en un escenario de deuda alta, depende del instrumento fiscal utilizado. Finalmente se analiza el bienestar social, encontrando que la política de consolidación fiscal produce una ganancia en términos de bienestar cuando el gasto público o el impuesto al consumo se utilizan como instrumento y este bienestar es mayor en el caso de endeudamiento privado alto. Sin embargo, cuando el instrumento fiscal son los impuestos al trabajo o al capital, se produce una pérdida de bienestar que es amplificada en un escenario de endeudamiento alto. En el segundo capítulo, se estudia como el tamaño de los multiplicadores fiscales depende del nivel de endeudamiento privado. Este artículo contribuye al debate de los efectos de los estímulos fiscales demostrando que el impacto de las políticas fiscales depende del nivel de endeudamiento, considerando el endeudamiento de los hogares y empresas. Finalmente, en el tercer capítulo se examina las proyecciones de deuda para la economía española bajo diferentes escenarios macroeconómicos. Se encuentra que la deuda aumentará hasta un 174% en 2035 si se cumple el escenario macroeconómico que predice la Comisión Europea. En el caso de considerar una subida de impuestos, la deuda disminuye pero lejos de llegar a los niveles pre-COVID.

This study aimed to develop a causal chain that illustrates the path through which a variety of factors influence consumer financial vulnerability. In order to achieve the stated aim, it was necessary to firstly identify the factors that gave rise to consumers being financially vulnerable. Secondly, the nature of the causal chain between the identified factors was determined. Thirdly, the causes of consumer financial vulnerability according to key informants in the financial services industry were determined. Finally, based on the results of the first three stages, possible explanations for consumer financial vulnerability were provided. Before the construction of the causal chain could be explored, a theoretical framework regarding household financial position as well as financial attitudes and behaviours was provided. The theoretical framework was supported by a description of the linkages through which consumers function and transact in an economy by applying chain reasoning. The chain reasoning was extended by providing financial statements reflecting the results of consumers’ interactions in the macroeconomy with an extract from the national accounts of South Africa presenting the income statements, balance sheets and relevant financial ratios of consumers for the period in which the research was conducted (2008 to 2009). For this study, the explanatory sequential mixed methods design was deemed appropriate to achieve the proposed research objectives. The research process firstly consisted of a quantitative strand where the possible causes for consumer financial vulnerability were identified after which the results were validated with data obtained in the second phase by means of four focus group discussions. To determine the factors giving rise to and establish the causal chain of overall consumer financial vulnerability, regression analysis was conducted. Based on the results of the regression analysis, it became evident that the financial vulnerability chain is not a singular linear process but rather a non-linear process (with contemporaneous and singular linkages) with a variety of factors influencing financial vulnerability, but also influencing each other over time. / Management Accounting / D. Accounting Science

This study aimed to develop a causal chain that illustrates the path through which a variety of factors influence consumer financial vulnerability. In order to achieve the stated aim, it was necessary to firstly identify the factors that gave rise to consumers being financially vulnerable. Secondly, the nature of the causal chain between the identified factors was determined. Thirdly, the causes of consumer financial vulnerability according to key informants in the financial services industry were determined. Finally, based on the results of the first three stages, possible explanations for consumer financial vulnerability were provided. Before the construction of the causal chain could be explored, a theoretical framework regarding household financial position as well as financial attitudes and behaviours was provided. The theoretical framework was supported by a description of the linkages through which consumers function and transact in an economy by applying chain reasoning. The chain reasoning was extended by providing financial statements reflecting the results of consumers’ interactions in the macroeconomy with an extract from the national accounts of South Africa presenting the income statements, balance sheets and relevant financial ratios of consumers for the period in which the research was conducted (2008 to 2009). For this study, the explanatory sequential mixed methods design was deemed appropriate to achieve the proposed research objectives. The research process firstly consisted of a quantitative strand where the possible causes for consumer financial vulnerability were identified after which the results were validated with data obtained in the second phase by means of four focus group discussions. To determine the factors giving rise to and establish the causal chain of overall consumer financial vulnerability, regression analysis was conducted. Based on the results of the regression analysis, it became evident that the financial vulnerability chain is not a singular linear process but rather a non-linear process (with contemporaneous and singular linkages) with a variety of factors influencing financial vulnerability, but also influencing each other over time. / Management Accounting / D. Accounting Science