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Modeling Mass Care Resource Provision Post HurricaneMuhs, Tammy Marie 01 January 2011 (has links)
Determining the amount of resources needed, specifically food and water, following a hurricane is not a straightforward task. Through this research effort, an estimating tool was developed that takes into account key demographic and evacuation behavioral effects, as well as hurricane storm specifics to estimate the number of meals required for the first fourteen days following a hurricane making landfall in the State of Florida. The Excel based estimating tool was created using data collected from four hurricanes making landfall in Florida during 2004-2005. The underlying model used in the tool is a Regression Decision Tree with predictor variables including direct impact, poverty level, and hurricane impact score. The hurricane impact score is a hurricane classification system resulting from this research that includes hurricane category, intensity, wind field size, and landfall location. The direct path of a hurricane, a higher than average proportion of residents below the poverty level, and the hurricane impact score were all found to have an effect on the number of meals required during the first fourteen days following a hurricane making landfall in the State of Florida
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An Analysis of the Determinants of Recovery of Businesses After a Natural Disaster Using a Multi-Paradigm ApproachFlott, Phyllis (Phyllis L.) 12 1900 (has links)
This study examines the recovery process of businesses in Homestead, Florida after Hurricane Andrew in 1992. The goal of this study was to determine which organizational characteristics were useful in predicting the level of physical damage and the length of time to reopen for affected businesses. The organizational characteristics examined were age, size, pre-disaster gross sales, ownership of the business location, membership in the Chamber of Commerce, and property insurance. Three-hundred and fifty businesses in the area were surveyed. Because of the complexity of the recovery process, the disaster experiences of businesses were examined using three paradigms, organizational ecology, contingency theory, and configuration theory. Models were developed and tested for each paradigm. The models used the contextual variables to explain the outcome variables; level of physical damage and length of time to reopen. The SIC was modified so that it could form the framework for a taxonomic examination of the businesses. The organizations were examined at the level of division, class, subclass, and order. While the taxa and consistent levels of physical damage, the length of time needed to reopen varied greatly. The homogeneous level of damage within the groups is linked to similarity in assets and transformation processes. When examined using the contingency perspective, there were no significant relationships between the level of physical damage and the contextual variables. Only predisaster gross sales and level of physical damage had moderate strength associations with the length of time to reopen. The configuration perspective was applied by identifying clusters of organizations using the contextual variables. Clusters were identified and examined to determine if they had significantly different disaster experiences. The clusters varied significantly only by the length of time to reopen. The disaster experience of businesses is conceptualized as a process of accumulation-deaccumulation-reaccumulation. The level of physical damage is driven by selection while the lenght of time to reopen is determined by both adaptation and selection.
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