Master of Science / Department of Biological & Agricultural Engineering / Kyle R. Douglas-Mankin / The Great Plains once encompassed 160 million hectares of grassland in the central United States. In the last several decades, conversion of grassland to urban and agricultural production areas has caused significant increases in runoff and erosion. Past attempts to slow this hydrologic system degradation have shown success, but climate change could once again significantly alter the hydrology. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) studies the state of knowledge pertaining to climate change. The IPCC has developed four possible future scenarios (A1, A2, B1 and B2). The output temperature and precipitation data for Northeast Kansas from fifteen A2 General Circulation Models (GCMs) were analyzed in this study. This analysis showed that future temperature increases are consistent among the GCMs. On the other hand, precipitation projections varied greatly among GCMs both on annual and monthly scales. It is clear that the results of a hydrologic study will vary depending on which GCM is used to generate future climate data. To overcome this difficulty, a way to take all GCMs into account in a hydrologic analysis is needed. Separate methods were used to develop three groups of scenarios from the output of fifteen A2 GCMs. Using a stochastic weather generator, WINDS, monthly adjustments for future temperature and precipitation were applied to actual statistics from the 1961 – 1990 to generate 105 years of data for each climate scenario. The SWAT model was used to simulate watershed processes for each scenario. The streamflow output was analyzed with the Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration program, which calculated multiple hydrologic indices that were then compared back to a baseline scenario. This analysis showed that large changes in projected annual precipitation caused significant hydrologic alteration. Similar alterations were obtained using scenarios with minimal annual precipitation change. This was accomplished with seasonal shifts in precipitation, or by significantly increasing annual temperature. One scenario showing an increase in spring precipitation accompanied by a decrease in summer precipitation caused an increase in both flood and drought events for the study area. The results of this study show that climate change has the potential to alter hydrologic regimes in Northeast Kansas.

Redes Neurais Artificiais (RNA's) vem sendo utilizada em diversas áreas do conhecimento inclusive para a previsão de séries temporais. O objetivo deste trabalho é utilizar uma RNA para o diagnóstico e prognóstico de vazão em bacias urbanas da Região Metropolitana de São Paulo (RMSP) com dados do radar meteorológio de São Paulo e os dados telemétricos da bacia do Alto Tietê. Uma RNA do tipo feedforward multicamadas, com aprendizado supervisionado e com o algoritmo de treinamento Linear Least Square SIMplex (LLSSIM, Hse et al. 1996) foram aplicados à bacia do Rio Tamanduateí. Dividiu-se os eventos disponíveis em três grupos; para o treinamento, verificação e previsão ideal com a RNA. Realizou o treinamento e verificação da rede com dados de vazão estimada e nível medido. Os erros de fase e amplitude foram utilizados para avaliar o desempenho da rede em cada uma das configurações empregadas. Estes indicam a importância da memória da bacia para o bom desempenho da RNA. Verifica-se também que nem sempre o aumento do número de camadas escondidas melhoram os resultados, bem como o aumento da quantidade de dados. Comparou-se ainda a performance da RNA contra um modelo auto regressivo sendo a primeira menos dependente da memória da bacia. Por último, realizou previsões do tipo ideal com resultados satisfatórios até 1 hora e 30 minutos de antecedência. Além deste período os erros crescem exponencialmente. / Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) have been widely used in several areas of science for many purposes, including time series forecasting. The objective of this work is to apply an ANN to simulate and to forecast streamflow at the outlet of the Tamanduateí basin. This urban basin is located within the Metropolitan Area of São Paulo (MASP). Radar and telemetric data are input to a multi-layer feedforward ANN. It is trained with the Linear Least Square SIMplex training algorithm (LLSSIM; Hse et al, 1996). Available flood events were divided up in three independent groups for training, verification and forecasting. The training and the verification of estimated streamflow and measured river stage were carried out. Phase and amplitude errors were used to evaluate the performance of the ANN for each configuration. The results indicate a better performance of the ANN when previous streamflow or river stage are input to the ANN. Furthermore, the increase of hidden layers not necessarily improve the results. The ANN was compared to an auto-regressive model. The former is less dependent on the basin memory. The ANN Forecasts yielded satisfactory results up to one and half-hour in advance. For longer time periods the errors tend to grow exponentially.

abstract: Ponderosa pine forests are a dominant land cover type in semiarid montane areas. Water supplies in major rivers of the southwestern United States depend on ponderosa pine forests since these ecosystems: (1) receive a significant amount of rainfall and snowfall, (2) intercept precipitation and transpire water, and (3) indirectly influence runoff by impacting the infiltration rate. However, the hydrologic patterns in these ecosystems with strong seasonality are poorly understood. In this study, we used a distributed hydrologic model evaluated against field observations to improve our understandings on spatial controls of hydrologic patterns, appropriate model resolution to simulate ponderosa pine ecosystems and hydrologic responses in the context of contrasting winter to summer transitions. Our modeling effort is focused on the hydrologic responses during the North American Monsoon (NAM), winter and spring periods. In Chapter 2, we utilized a distributed model explore the spatial controls on simulated soil moisture and temporal evolution of these spatial controls as a function of seasonal wetness. Our findings indicate that vegetation and topographic curvature are spatial controls. Vegetation controlled patterns during dry summer period switch to fine-scale terrain curvature controlled patterns during persistently wet NAM period. Thus, a climatic threshold involving rainfall and weather conditions during the NAM is identified when high rainfall amount (such as 146 mm rain in August, 1997) activates lateral flux of soil moisture and frequent cloudy cover (such as 42% cloud cover during daytime of August, 1997) lowers evapotranspiration. In Chapter 3, we investigate the impacts of model coarsening on simulated soil moisture patterns during the NAM. Results indicate that model aggregation quickly eradicates curvature features and its spatial control on hydrologic patterns. A threshold resolution of ~10% of the original terrain is identified through analyses of homogeneity indices, correlation coefficients and spatial errors beyond which the fidelity of simulated soil moisture is no longer reliable. Based on spatial error analyses, we detected that the concave areas (~28% of hillslope) are very sensitive to model coarsening and root mean square error (RMSE) is higher than residual soil moisture content (~0.07 m3/m3 soil moisture) for concave areas. Thus, concave areas need to be sampled for capturing appropriate hillslope response for this hillslope. In Chapter 4, we investigate the impacts of contrasting winter to summer transitions on hillslope hydrologic responses. We use a distributed hydrologic model to generate a consistent set of high-resolution hydrologic estimates. Our model is evaluated against the snow depth, soil moisture and runoff observations over two water years yielding reliable spatial distributions during the winter to summer transitions. We find that a wet winter followed by a dry summer promotes evapotranspiration losses (spatial averaged ~193 mm spring ET and ~ 600 mm summer ET) that dry the soil and disconnect lateral fluxes in the forested hillslope, leading to soil moisture patterns resembling vegetation patches. Conversely, a dry winter prior to a wet summer results in soil moisture increases due to high rainfall and low ET during the spring (spatially averaged 78 mm ET and 232 mm rainfall) and summer period (spatially averaged 147 mm ET and 247 mm rainfall) which promote lateral connectivity and soil moisture patterns with the signature of terrain curvature. An opposing temporal switch between infiltration and saturation excess runoff is also identified. These contrasting responses indicate that the inverse relation has significant consequences on hillslope water availability and its spatial distribution with implications on other ecohydrological processes including vegetation phenology, groundwater recharge and geomorphic development. Results from this work have implications on the design of hillslope experiments, the resolution of hillslope scale models, and the prediction of hydrologic conditions in ponderosa pine ecosystems. In addition, our findings can be used to select future hillslope sites for detailed ecohydrological investigations. Further, the proposed methodology can be useful for predicting responses to climate and land cover changes that are anticipated for the southwestern United States. / Dissertation/Thesis / Ph.D. Geological Sciences 2012

Made available in DSpace on 2016-12-23T13:51:43Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertacao - Danilo Costa Fukunaga.pdf: 8515561 bytes, checksum: ba38cee72ad050285f5ea5c0e36c53d6 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2012-08-24 / O aumento da atividade econômica e do número de habitantes no mundo, juntamente com o uso não sustentável dos recursos hídricos, os despejos de efluentes sem tratamento no ambiente e o manejo inadequado das bacias hidrográficas, têm contribuído para diminuição da disponibilidade de água no planeta. Apesar de ser um recurso natural renovável, a água que retorna da atmosfera não ocorre de maneira uniformemente distribuída, nem no espaço geográfico, nem no tempo, tornando a sua boa gestão essencial para diminuição das consequências desastrosas dos eventos extremos de cheia e de escassez. Mas, uma gestão exitosa requer, além de profissionais qualificados, o uso de ferramentas para suporte à tomada de decisão. Neste contexto, a utilização de modelos hidrológicos pode auxiliar no planejamento e avaliação de práticas conservacionistas de solo e água e de manejo de bacias hidrográficas. Do exposto, o presente estudo teve o objetivo de avaliar a aplicabilidade do SWAT para a estimação de vazões em bacias hidrográficas no sul do Estado do Espírito Santo. Foram estudadas: a microbacia do córrego Jaqueira (MBJ), com aproximadamente 22,6 ha, e a sub-bacia do rio Itapemirim, à montante da estação fluviométrica de Rive (BIMR), com aproximadamente 2.237 km². Devido ao alto número de falhas e ao curto período de monitoramento hidrológico, não foi possível calibrar e verificar a aplicabilidade do modelo para a MBJ. Para a BIMR, na análise das vazões médias, estimou-se 45,5 m³ s-1 antes da calibração, e 32,6 m³ s-1 após a calibração, muito próxima da vazão média monitorada de 36,9 m³ s-1. Para o período de validação, a vazão média monitorada foi 22% maior (45,0 m³ s-1), enquanto a estimada foi de 33,9 m³ s-1, permanecendo próxima da vazão média estimada calibrada. Em análise gráfica, observou-se que, antes da calibração, as vazões mínimas estimadas ficaram abaixo das observadas, porém as vazões de pico eram superestimadas. Após a calibração, as vazões mínimas tiveram melhores correlações, enquanto as vazões de pico foram subestimadas. Na análise dos índices estatísticos, o R² passou de 0,74 para 0,76 após a calibração, mas foi reduzido para 0,63 no período de validação. Para o coeficiente de Nash Sufcliffe, houve uma melhora significativa do valor após a calibração, passando de -0,38 para 0,75, permanecendo com um valor aceitável de 0,57 no período de validação. O SWAT foi capaz de simular vazões em bacias hidrográficas do Sul do Espírito Santo, desde que não houvesse muitas falhas nos dados monitorados, sendo capaz inclusive de simular dados de outros períodos para os quais os parâmetros não foram ajustados / The increasing of world economic activity and the number of inhabitants, along with the unsustainable use of water resources, untreated wastewater release into the environment and inadequate watersheds management, has contributed to water availability decrease on the planet. Despite being a renewable natural resource, the water that returns from the atmosphere does not occur evenly distributed, either in geographic space or in time, making its good management essential to reduce disastrous consequences of extreme events of floods and droughts. But a successful management requires, as well as qualified professionals, the use of support decision tools. In this context, the use of hydrological models can assist in planning and assessment of conservation practices for soil and water and watershed management. In this light, the present study aimed to evaluate the SWAT capability to estimate flow in river basins in the southern of Espírito Santo state, Brazil. The Jaqueira stream watershed (MBJ), with approximately 22.6 ha, and Itapemirim river basin, upstream of the Rive fluviometric station (BIMR), with approximately 2,237 km², were studied. Due to the high number of gaps and short-term hydrological monitoring, was not possible to calibrate and verify model applicability for the MBJ. For BIMR, the analysis of the average flow rate was estimated by 45.5 m³ s-1, before calibration, and 32.6 m³ s-1 after calibration, closely to the monitored average flow, that was 36.9 m³ s-1. For the validation period, the average flow monitored was 22% higher (45.0 m³ s-1), while the estimated flow was 33.9 m³ s-1, remaining closely to the average calibrated estimated flow. In graphical analysis, it was observed that before calibration, the estimated minimum flow rates were below those observed, but the peak flows were overestimated. After calibration, the minimum flows had better correlations, while the peak flows were underestimated. In the analysis of statistical indexes, the R² increased from 0.74 to 0.76, after calibration, but was reduced to 0.63 in the validation period. For the Nash Sufcliffe coefficient, was verified a significant improvement of its value after calibration, from -0.38 to 0.75, remaining with an acceptable value in the validation period, 0.57. The SWAT was able to simulate flows in river basins in the southern of Espírito Santo state, since there were not many gaps in the monitored data, and also being able to simulate data from other periods for which the parameters were not adjusted

Made available in DSpace on 2016-12-23T13:51:54Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Introducao_Revisao.pdf: 957704 bytes, checksum: e17ebeae5294a2c7986614add6f88f96 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2012-08-24 / O aumento da atividade econômica e do número de habitantes no mundo, juntamente com o uso não sustentável dos recursos hídricos, os despejos de efluentes sem tratamento no ambiente e o manejo inadequado das bacias hidrográficas, têm contribuído para diminuição da disponibilidade de água no planeta. Apesar de ser um recurso natural renovável, a água que retorna da atmosfera não ocorre de maneira uniformemente distribuída, nem no espaço geográfico, nem no tempo, tornando a sua boa gestão essencial para diminuição das consequências desastrosas dos eventos extremos de cheia e de escassez. Mas, uma gestão exitosa requer, além de profissionais qualificados, o uso de ferramentas para suporte à tomada de decisão. Neste contexto, a utilização de modelos hidrológicos pode auxiliar no planejamento e avaliação de práticas conservacionistas de solo e água e de manejo de bacias hidrográficas. Do exposto, o presente estudo teve o objetivo de avaliar a aplicabilidade do SWAT para a estimação de vazões em bacias hidrográficas no sul do Estado do Espírito Santo. Foram estudadas: a microbacia do córrego Jaqueira (MBJ), com aproximadamente 22,6 ha, e a sub-bacia do rio Itapemirim, à montante da estação fluviométrica de Rive (BIMR), com aproximadamente 2.237 km². Devido ao alto número de falhas e ao curto período de monitoramento hidrológico, não foi possível calibrar e verificar a aplicabilidade do modelo para a MBJ. Para a BIMR, na análise das vazões médias, estimou-se 45,5 m³ s-1 antes da calibração, e 32,6 m³ s-1 após a calibração, muito próxima da vazão média monitorada de 36,9 m³ s-1. Para o período de validação, a vazão média monitorada foi 22% maior (45,0 m³ s-1), enquanto a estimada foi de 33,9 m³ s-1, permanecendo próxima da vazão média estimada calibrada. Em análise gráfica, observou-se que, antes da calibração, as vazões mínimas estimadas ficaram abaixo das observadas, porém as vazões de pico eram superestimadas. Após a calibração, as vazões mínimas tiveram melhores correlações, enquanto as vazões de pico foram subestimadas. Na análise dos índices estatísticos, o R² passou de 0,74 para 0,76 após a calibração, mas foi reduzido para 0,63 no período de validação. Para o coeficiente de Nash Sufcliffe, houve uma melhora significativa do valor após a calibração, passando de -0,38 para 0,75, permanecendo com um valor aceitável de 0,57 no período de validação. O SWAT foi capaz de simular vazões em bacias hidrográficas do Sul do Espírito Santo, desde que não houvesse muitas falhas nos dados monitorados, sendo capaz inclusive de simular dados de outros períodos para os quais os parâmetros não foram ajustados / The increasing of world economic activity and the number of inhabitants, along with the unsustainable use of water resources, untreated wastewater release into the environment and inadequate watersheds management, has contributed to water availability decrease on the planet. Despite being a renewable natural resource, the water that returns from the atmosphere does not occur evenly distributed, either in geographic space or in time, making its good management essential to reduce disastrous consequences of extreme events of floods and droughts. But a successful management requires, as well as qualified professionals, the use of support decision tools. In this context, the use of hydrological models can assist in planning and assessment of conservation practices for soil and water and watershed management. In this light, the present study aimed to evaluate the SWAT capability to estimate flow in river basins in the southern of Espírito Santo state, Brazil. The Jaqueira stream watershed (MBJ), with approximately 22.6 ha, and Itapemirim river basin, upstream of the Rive fluviometric station (BIMR), with approximately 2,237 km², were studied. Due to the high number of gaps and short-term hydrological monitoring, was not possible to calibrate and verify model applicability for the MBJ. For BIMR, the analysis of the average flow rate was estimated by 45.5 m³ s-1, before calibration, and 32.6 m³ s-1 after calibration, closely to the monitored average flow, that was 36.9 m³ s-1. For the validation period, the average flow monitored was 22% higher (45.0 m³ s-1), while the estimated flow was 33.9 m³ s-1, remaining closely to the average calibrated estimated flow. In graphical analysis, it was observed that before calibration, the estimated minimum flow rates were below those observed, but the peak flows were overestimated. After calibration, the minimum flows had better correlations, while the peak flows were underestimated. In the analysis of statistical indexes, the R² increased from 0.74 to 0.76, after calibration, but was reduced to 0.63 in the validation period. For the Nash Sufcliffe coefficient, was verified a significant improvement of its value after calibration, from -0.38 to 0.75, remaining with an acceptable value in the validation period, 0.57. The SWAT was able to simulate flows in river basins in the southern of Espírito Santo state, since there were not many gaps in the monitored data, and also being able to simulate data from other periods for which the parameters were not adjusted

Redes Neurais Artificiais (RNA's) vem sendo utilizada em diversas áreas do conhecimento inclusive para a previsão de séries temporais. O objetivo deste trabalho é utilizar uma RNA para o diagnóstico e prognóstico de vazão em bacias urbanas da Região Metropolitana de São Paulo (RMSP) com dados do radar meteorológio de São Paulo e os dados telemétricos da bacia do Alto Tietê. Uma RNA do tipo feedforward multicamadas, com aprendizado supervisionado e com o algoritmo de treinamento Linear Least Square SIMplex (LLSSIM, Hse et al. 1996) foram aplicados à bacia do Rio Tamanduateí. Dividiu-se os eventos disponíveis em três grupos; para o treinamento, verificação e previsão ideal com a RNA. Realizou o treinamento e verificação da rede com dados de vazão estimada e nível medido. Os erros de fase e amplitude foram utilizados para avaliar o desempenho da rede em cada uma das configurações empregadas. Estes indicam a importância da memória da bacia para o bom desempenho da RNA. Verifica-se também que nem sempre o aumento do número de camadas escondidas melhoram os resultados, bem como o aumento da quantidade de dados. Comparou-se ainda a performance da RNA contra um modelo auto regressivo sendo a primeira menos dependente da memória da bacia. Por último, realizou previsões do tipo ideal com resultados satisfatórios até 1 hora e 30 minutos de antecedência. Além deste período os erros crescem exponencialmente. / Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) have been widely used in several areas of science for many purposes, including time series forecasting. The objective of this work is to apply an ANN to simulate and to forecast streamflow at the outlet of the Tamanduateí basin. This urban basin is located within the Metropolitan Area of São Paulo (MASP). Radar and telemetric data are input to a multi-layer feedforward ANN. It is trained with the Linear Least Square SIMplex training algorithm (LLSSIM; Hse et al, 1996). Available flood events were divided up in three independent groups for training, verification and forecasting. The training and the verification of estimated streamflow and measured river stage were carried out. Phase and amplitude errors were used to evaluate the performance of the ANN for each configuration. The results indicate a better performance of the ANN when previous streamflow or river stage are input to the ANN. Furthermore, the increase of hidden layers not necessarily improve the results. The ANN was compared to an auto-regressive model. The former is less dependent on the basin memory. The ANN Forecasts yielded satisfactory results up to one and half-hour in advance. For longer time periods the errors tend to grow exponentially.

The Kennet and Avon Canal in southern England is experiencing severe water quality problems caused by inorganic sediment and algae. These water quality problems are affecting the angling sport of fishermen downstream of the confluence of the canal with the River Kennet. The Environment Agency has been called upon to remedy these issues, but before proceeding they desire a computer model capable of predicting the water quality impacts of various scenarios under consideration. No such model was available to them. This project identified the key solids generation and transport processes to be included in a water quality model for inland navigational canals. Where available, equations from the literature describing relevant processes were used or modified for inclusion in a canal modeling algorithm. Where literature was not available, water quality samples were taken to characterize needed relationships. The final algorithm was coded and tested using a simplified dataset that allowed clear evaluation of the simulated processes. After successful testing, the canal model was applied to the Kennet and Avon Canal. The time series predicted by the model were compared to observed hydrological, solids, and chlorophyll-a (representing algae) data at multiple points in the canal. The model adequately predicted all of these constituents at the monitored locations. The final task in the project required evaluation of six management scenarios proposed by the Environment Agency to address the water quality problem. The model suggests that filtration or other treatment of water in the canal near the confluence with the river is the best management option, as it will address both the elevated inorganic sediment and algae concentrations at the most critical point in the canal. Less desirable options include efforts that only target inorganic sediment, which could increase algal concentrations by increasing light availability; and diversion of surface flows from the canal, which could possibly damage the hydrologic balance of the canal while encouraging undesirable algal growth.

A falta de dados hidrológicos é fator limitante da representação mais precisa do comportamento hídrico, comprometendo a gestão de bacias hidrográficas. Quando estas bacias são responsáveis pelo abastecimento publico a situação torna-se crítica. Este trabalho tem como objetivo desenvolver uma metodologia para avaliação da disponibilidade hídrica para o abastecimento, utilizando cenários adaptados ao clima do cerrado, mesmo com carência de dados hidrometeorológicos, sendo aplicada na Sub-bacia do Ribeirão Taquarussu Grande em Palmas-TO. A proposta de metodologia consiste na Estimava da Oferta Hídrica, onde propôs obter os dados de disponibilidade hídrica através dos Métodos de Proporção de Área, de Regressão e do modelo chuva-vazão Win_IPH II, posteriormente adotando a Q90 e a Q7,10 como as vazões de referência; na Estimativa da Demanda e Projeções, que identificou os usos consultivos e a taxa de crescimento da população urbana e rural, da criação animal e os seus respectivos consumos per capita, necessária para a projeção de demanda futura; nos Cenários Propostos, foram aplicadas simulações para atendimento do abastecimento publico no horizonte de 20 anos, considerando a variabilidade climática na região e/ou inserção de novos usuários, no qual a vazão de referência adotada foi cotejada com a curva de demanda, avaliando a disponibilidade hídrica e identificando a variação do máximo déficit. Os resultados obtidos foram que a metodologia proposta se mostrou adequada, como uma ferramenta de analise e tomadas de decisões no gerenciamento integrado dos usos dos recursos hídricos; observou que a Q90 e a Q7,10 anual adotada restringe o uso da água na maior parte do tempo, enquanto a Q90 e a Q7,10 mensal possui uma maior capacidade de disponibilizar água; o maior usuário da Sub-bacia do Ribeirão Taquarussu Grande é a população urbana do município de Palmas, sendo esta responsável por 98,5% do total consumido; nos cenários, o Caso 01 do Cenário 02, demonstrou ser a tendência futura no atendimento da demanda de 66% da população urbana (ETA 006) utilizando a Q90 mensal, tendo o déficit de 47,17% no ano de 2010. / The lack of hydrological data is a limitante factor of the most precise representation of the hydric behaviour, compromising the management of hydrological basins, when these basins are responsible for the publish supply the situation becomes critical.This paper proposes a methodology for assessment of watershed conditions in the supply scenarios adapted to the scarcity of hydrometeorological data, being applied in the sub-basin of the Great Stream Taquarussu Palmas-TO.The proposed methodology is the estimate of Water Supply, which aimed to obtain data on water availability through the methods of Area Ratio, Regression and model rainfall-runoff Win_IPH II, later adopting the Q90 and Q7,10 as the flow of reference; Estimation of the Demand and Projections, which identified the uses advisory and the growth rate of urban and rural population of the animal creation and their respective per capita, which is necessary for the projection of future demand, in the proposed scenario, simulations were applied to attend the public supply in the 20-year horizon, given the climate variability in the region and / or adding new users, in which the reference flow used was checked against the demand curve, assessing water availability and identifying the shift of the maximum deficit and Estimated Cost of Work, which has proposed alternatives to increase water availability by estimating the costs of these works. The results were that the proposed methodology was adequate as a tool for analysis and decision making in integrated management of water resources uses; noted that the Q90 and Q7,10 adopted restricts the annual water use in most of the time , While the Q90 and Q7,10 monthly has a greater capacity to provide water, the biggest user of the Sub-basin Taquarussu Ribeirão Grande is the Palmas city urban population which is responsible for 98.5% of total consumption, in the scenarios, the case 01 of Scenario 02, proved to be the future trend in meeting demand of 66% of urban population (ETA 006) monthly using the Q90, with the deficit of 47.17% in 2010.

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / Hydrossedimentological monitoring and modeling have been used as important tools to evaluate and simulate the hydrosedimentological processes in rural watersheds, in order to effectively propose conservation practices in environmentally sensitive locations. The objective of this research was to evaluate the performance of a physically based hydrological model (LISEM - Limburg Soil Erosion Model) in quantifying runoff and erosion in a rural catchment with high spatial variability (horizontally and vertically) physical and hydrological characteristics of the soil. The catchment has an area of 1.19 km2 and is situated in the northeastern region of the Rio Grande do Sul state, Brazil. Soils are characterized by reduction of water flow in the vertical soil profile either by the small thickness (Entisols and Inceptisols) or textural gradient between horizons (Ultisols) - and are associated with variations of relief, which is composed of soft hills in the top section and mountainous in the bottom section of the catchment. The predominant land use is tobacco farming (Nicotiana tabacum L.), where the surface layer of the soil is tilled to form ridges. In the first stage of the study, five slopes of the basin used for tobacco cultivation were sampled to characterize the physical and hydraulic properties at different points in the relief (top, middle slope and lowland) and four soil layers (0.00 to 0.04, from 0.20 to 0.24, from 0.40 to 0.44 and from 0.60 to 0,64 m). Field trials were also conducted to determine the infiltration rate on the slopes, and equations were also established to estimate the saturated hydraulic conductivity in each layer of soil sampled. In the second step, the LISEM model was calibrated to represent the hydrograph and sedimentograph of 20 rainfall events monitored in the river mouth from 2009 to 2012. The results of the first stage show that there is horizontal and vertical variability of physical and hydraulic properties on the slopes, being that the hillsides have a higher saturated hydraulic conductivity due to its coarser texture. Both the hydraulic conductivity and the infiltration rate were effective in identifying the horizontal variability of water flow on the slopes. The hydraulic conductivity can be estimated with good accuracy when variables from subsoil layers, for example, the total sand content, are used. The results of the second stage of the study revealed that the LISEM had a good performance in modeling the hydrograph. However, it was not possible to represent the sedimentograph, and there was an overestimate in sediment production. The model s equations related to erosion do not represent the dynamics that occur in this catchment. / O monitoramento e a modelagem hidrossedimentológica têm sido utilizados como ferramentas importantes para avaliar e simular os processos hidrossedimentológicos em bacias hidrográficas rurais, com o intuito de propor, de forma eficaz, práticas conservacionistas em locais ambientalmente frágeis. O objetivo desta pesquisa foi avaliar o desempenho de um modelo hidrológico de base física (LISEM Limburg Soil Erosion Model) em quantificar o escoamento superficial e o processo erosivo em uma bacia hidrográfica rural com grande variabilidade espacial (no sentido horizontal e vertical) das características físico-hídricas de solo. A bacia hidrográfica possui 1,19 km2 e está situada na região nordeste do estado do Rio Grande do Sul, Brasil. Os solos são caracterizados pela redução do fluxo de água na direção vertical do perfil de solo seja pela pequena espessura (Neossolos e Cambissolos) ou pelo gradiente textural entre horizontes (Argissolos) e estão associados às variações do relevo, que é ondulado na fração superior e montanhoso na fração inferior da bacia. O uso do solo predominante é o cultivo do tabaco (Nicotiana tabacum L.), em que a camada superficial do solo é revolvida para a construção de camalhões. Na primeira etapa do estudo, cinco encostas da bacia utilizadas para o cultivo do tabaco foram amostradas para caracterização das propriedades físico-hídricas em diferentes pontos do relevo (topo, meia encosta e várzea) e em quatro camadas de solo (0,00 a 0,04, 0,20 a 0,24, 0,40 a 0,44 e 0,60 a 0,64 m). Também foram realizados ensaios de campo para determinação da taxa de infiltração básica nas encostas e, ainda, foram construídas equações para estimativa da condutividade hidráulica saturada em cada camada de solo amostrada. Na segunda etapa, o modelo LISEM foi calibrado para representar o hidrograma e o sedimentograma de 20 eventos monitorados no exutório da bacia entre no período de 2009 a 2012. Os resultados da primeira etapa comprovam que há variabilidade horizontal e vertical das propriedades físico-hídricas nas encostas, sendo que a meia encosta apresenta maior condutividade hidráulica saturada devido à textura mais grosseira neste local. Tanto a condutividade hidráulica quanto a taxa de infiltração básica foram eficazes em identificar a variabilidade horizontal do fluxo de água nas encostas. A condutividade hidráulica saturada pode ser estimada com boa precisão quando são usadas variáveis das camadas subsuperficiais do solo como, por exemplo, o teor de areia total. Os resultados da segunda etapa do estudo revelaram que o LISEM apresentou bom desempenho na modelagem do hidrograma. No entanto, não foi possível a representação do sedimentograma, sendo que houve superestimativa da produção de sedimentos. As equações do modelo relacionadas com o processo erosivo não representam a dinâmica que ocorre nesta bacia hidrográfica.

A falta de dados hidrológicos é fator limitante da representação mais precisa do comportamento hídrico, comprometendo a gestão de bacias hidrográficas. Quando estas bacias são responsáveis pelo abastecimento publico a situação torna-se crítica. Este trabalho tem como objetivo desenvolver uma metodologia para avaliação da disponibilidade hídrica para o abastecimento, utilizando cenários adaptados ao clima do cerrado, mesmo com carência de dados hidrometeorológicos, sendo aplicada na Sub-bacia do Ribeirão Taquarussu Grande em Palmas-TO. A proposta de metodologia consiste na Estimava da Oferta Hídrica, onde propôs obter os dados de disponibilidade hídrica através dos Métodos de Proporção de Área, de Regressão e do modelo chuva-vazão Win_IPH II, posteriormente adotando a Q90 e a Q7,10 como as vazões de referência; na Estimativa da Demanda e Projeções, que identificou os usos consultivos e a taxa de crescimento da população urbana e rural, da criação animal e os seus respectivos consumos per capita, necessária para a projeção de demanda futura; nos Cenários Propostos, foram aplicadas simulações para atendimento do abastecimento publico no horizonte de 20 anos, considerando a variabilidade climática na região e/ou inserção de novos usuários, no qual a vazão de referência adotada foi cotejada com a curva de demanda, avaliando a disponibilidade hídrica e identificando a variação do máximo déficit. Os resultados obtidos foram que a metodologia proposta se mostrou adequada, como uma ferramenta de analise e tomadas de decisões no gerenciamento integrado dos usos dos recursos hídricos; observou que a Q90 e a Q7,10 anual adotada restringe o uso da água na maior parte do tempo, enquanto a Q90 e a Q7,10 mensal possui uma maior capacidade de disponibilizar água; o maior usuário da Sub-bacia do Ribeirão Taquarussu Grande é a população urbana do município de Palmas, sendo esta responsável por 98,5% do total consumido; nos cenários, o Caso 01 do Cenário 02, demonstrou ser a tendência futura no atendimento da demanda de 66% da população urbana (ETA 006) utilizando a Q90 mensal, tendo o déficit de 47,17% no ano de 2010. / The lack of hydrological data is a limitante factor of the most precise representation of the hydric behaviour, compromising the management of hydrological basins, when these basins are responsible for the publish supply the situation becomes critical.This paper proposes a methodology for assessment of watershed conditions in the supply scenarios adapted to the scarcity of hydrometeorological data, being applied in the sub-basin of the Great Stream Taquarussu Palmas-TO.The proposed methodology is the estimate of Water Supply, which aimed to obtain data on water availability through the methods of Area Ratio, Regression and model rainfall-runoff Win_IPH II, later adopting the Q90 and Q7,10 as the flow of reference; Estimation of the Demand and Projections, which identified the uses advisory and the growth rate of urban and rural population of the animal creation and their respective per capita, which is necessary for the projection of future demand, in the proposed scenario, simulations were applied to attend the public supply in the 20-year horizon, given the climate variability in the region and / or adding new users, in which the reference flow used was checked against the demand curve, assessing water availability and identifying the shift of the maximum deficit and Estimated Cost of Work, which has proposed alternatives to increase water availability by estimating the costs of these works. The results were that the proposed methodology was adequate as a tool for analysis and decision making in integrated management of water resources uses; noted that the Q90 and Q7,10 adopted restricts the annual water use in most of the time , While the Q90 and Q7,10 monthly has a greater capacity to provide water, the biggest user of the Sub-basin Taquarussu Ribeirão Grande is the Palmas city urban population which is responsible for 98.5% of total consumption, in the scenarios, the case 01 of Scenario 02, proved to be the future trend in meeting demand of 66% of urban population (ETA 006) monthly using the Q90, with the deficit of 47.17% in 2010.