Submitted in fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Engineering, Department of Civil Engineering and Surveying, Durban University of Technology, Durban, South Africa, 2016. / Due to the water scarcity in South Africa, new strategies in management planning are needed in order to sustain water resources. The increase of population and economic growth in South Africa has a negative effect on the water resources. Therefore, it should be well managed. The main concerns of the sustainability of water resources are hydropower, irrigation for agriculture, domestic and industries. Hence, the use of integrated water resources management in a single system which is built up by a river basin will help in water resources. This study was focused on water management issues: some of the principal causes of water shortages in UMdloti River are discussed. The current situation of water supply and demand at present is discussed. It also addressed some essential elements of reasonable, cooperative and sustainable water resources management solutions. Many developing countries are characterized as there is limited data availability, water scarcity and decrease of water levels in the dams. The eThekwini municipality is also having similar problems. Water resources have been modelled under this limited data using the hydrological modelling techniques by assessing the streamflow and observed data. The aim of the study was to address the issue of water management how water supply sources can be sustained to be manageable to meet the population growth demand considering the capacity of Hazelmere Dam demand downstream of the dam. Hydrological models, simulation, and decision making support systems were used to achieve all the research objectives. Hazelmere Dam has been modelled so that it can be used efficiently for the benefit of all users downstream of the dam for their economic and ecological benefits. Monthly reservoir inflow data for Hazelmere Dam was obtained from the Department of Water Affairs, South Africa. The nature of data is streamflow volume in mega liter (Ml) recorded for every month of the year. This was converted to mega cubic meter (Mm3) for use in the analysis herein. A period spanning 19 years of data (1994 – 2013) was used for the analysis. Six parametric probability distribution models were developed for estimating the monthly streamflow at Hazelmere Dam. These probability distribution functions include; Normal, Log-Normal (LN), Pearson III, Log-Pearson type III (LP3), Gumbel extreme value type1 (EVI) and Log-Gumbel (LG). It was observed that UMdloti River is smaller when compared with other rivers within the KwaZulu-Natal Province which could make it difficult to implement integrated water resources management. The hydro-meteorological data collected also has some limitations. The meteorological stations are far away to one another and this would make it difficult to attach their readings with the corresponding water basin. The comparison between the observed and simulated streamflow indicated that there was a good agreement between the observed and simulated discharge. Even though, the performance of the model was satisfactory, yet, it should not be generalized equally for all purposes. The erosion on the study area must be addressed by the stakeholders. It must be minimized in order to sustain the water resources of the UMdloti River. Erosion has a bad impact on the environment because it causes environmental degradation as well. Further investigations are recommended that account for the geological characteristics and the source of the base flow to make sure the rate of groundwater is sufficient for any future developments. Harnessing more energy from existing water sources within the frontier of the country is important in capacitating the South African Government’s commitment to reduction of the country’s greenhouse gas emissions and transition to a low-carbon economy while meeting a national target of 3,725 megawatts by 2030. This study also aimed to determine the amount of energy that can be generated from Hazelmere Dam on the uMdloti River, South Africa. Behavioral analyses of the Hazelmere reservoir were performed using plausible scenarios. Feasible alternative reservoir operation models were formulated and investigated to determine the best operating policy and power system configuration. This study determines the amounts of monthly and total annual energy that can be generated from Hazelmere reservoir based on turbines efficiencies of 75%, 85% and 90%. Optimization models were formulated to maximize hydropower generation within the constraints of existing abstractions, hydrological and system constraints. Differential evolution (DE) optimization method was adopted to resolve the optimization models. The methodology was applied for an operating season. The optimization models were formulated to maximize hydropower generation while keeping within the limits of existing irrigation demands. Differential evolution algorithm was employed to search feasible solution space for the best policy. Reservoir behavioural analysis was conducted to inspect the feasibility of generating hydropower from the Hazelmere reservoir under normal flow conditions. Optimization models were formulated to maximize hydropower generation from the dam. DE was employed to resolve the formulated models within the confines of the system constraints. It was found that 527.51 MWH of annual energy may be generated from the dam without system failure. Storage was maintained above critical levels while the reservoir supplied the full demands on the dam throughout the operating period indicating that the system yield is sufficient and there is no immediate need to augment the system. / M

Dams hold numerous benefits for society through their ability to store water on a long-term basis. However, it is well-known that there is a detrimental effect of dams on the rivers that they impound, and this has been taken into account by the South African National Water Act (1998). The Act specifies a two component Reserve to provide a basic water supply to humans and to provide protection to downstream rivers and their associated ecosystems. From an ecological perspective, emphasis is now placed on ensuring that flow in rivers is maintained in a state that closely mimics the natural flow regime in order to sustain the water resource and its associated aquatic ecosystems. The resulting challenge for water resources modelling is to develop operating rule frameworks that can account for water supply to multiple users, including the "environment" which represents downstream aquatic ecosystems. These frameworks need to consider both water stored in dams, as well as water in the river which has been allocated to different water uscrs. Such an operating rule framework has been implemented ID the daily time-step ACRU agrohydrological model in order to: (a) satisfy the requirements of water users in general, (b) (c) include the environment as a user of water, and thus attempt to satisfy the water requirements of rivers and their associated ecosystems by making artificial releases from dams using both a simple and a complicated approach for determining the environmental requirements. The framework identifies four types of water users, each of which are capable of requesting water from a water source. These users are: a domestic user, representing the basic human needs component of the Reserve, an environmental user, representing the ecological component of the Reserve, an industrial user and an irrigator. The environmental user can generate water requests using either a simple or a complex environmental request method. The simple approach has proved to be oversimplified while the complex approach is capable of producing a flow regime downstream of a dam that closely mimics the natural flow regime. Two operating rules are employed to supply water to the four users, a generic dam operating rule, which considers water requested from a dam, and a channel operating rule, which considers water requested from a river. The two operating rules determine the amounts of water that each user can receive through the use of a curtailment structure, where abstractions made by users are limited, based on the storage level in the dam. Extensive validation of the framework has taken place and a case study was undertaken on the Pongola-Bivane river system which includes the Paris Dam in order to run various real-life scenarios. The results obtained show not only that the operating rule framework is functioning correctly, but that the use of a curtailment structure holds advantages for increasing assurance levels of the water users. There is also evidence to suggest that future possibilities exist for practical application of the operating rule framework to "everyday" dam operations. / Thesis (M.Sc.)-University of Natal,Pietermaritzburg, 2001.

The temporal distribution of rainfall , viz. the distribution of rainfall intensity during a storm, is an important factor affecting the timing and magnitude of peak flow from a catchment and hence the flood-generating potential of rainfall events. It is also one of the primary inputs into hydrological models used for hydraulic design purposes. The use of short duration rainfall data inherently accounts for the temporal distribution of rainfall, however, there is a relative paucity of short duration data when compared to the more abundantly available daily data. One method of overcoming this is to disaggregate courser-scale data to a finer resolution, e.g. daily to hourly. A daily to hourly rainfall disaggregation model developed by Boughton (2000b) in Australia has been modified and applied in South Africa. The primary part of the model is the . distribution of R, which is the fraction of the daily total that occurs in the hour of maximum rainfall. A random number is used to sample from the distribution of R at the site of interest. The sample value of R determines the other 23 values, which then undergo a clustering procedure. This clustered sequence is then arranged into 1 of 24 possible temporal arrangements, depending when the hour the maximum rainfall occurs. The structure of the model allows for the production of 480 different temporal distributions with variation between uniform and non-uniform rainfall. The model was then regionalised to allow for application at sites where daily rainfall data, but no short duration data, were available. The model was evaluated at 15 different locations in differing climatic regions in South Africa. At each location, observed hourly rainfall data were aggregated to yield 24-hour values and these were then disaggregated using the methodology. Results show that the model is able to retain the daily total and most of the characteristics of the hourly rainfall at the site, for when both at-site and regional information are used. The model, however, is less capable of simulating statistics related to the sequencing of hourly rainfalls, e.g. autocorrelations. The model also tends to over-estimate design rainfalls, particularly for the shorter durations . / Thesis (M.Sc.)-University of KwaZulu-Natal, Pietermaritzburg, 2005.

The Caledon River Basin is located on one of the most water-scarce region on the African continent. The water resources of the Caledon River Basin play a pivotal role in socio-economic activities in both Lesotho and South Africa but the basin experiences recurrent severe droughts and frequent water shortages. The Caledon River is mostly used for commercial and subsistence agriculture, industrial and domestic supply. The resources are also important beyond the basin’s boundaries as the water is transferred to the nearby Modder River. The Caledon River is also a significant tributary to the Orange-Senqu Basin, which is shared by five southern African countries. However, the water resources in the basin are under continuous threat as a result of rapidly growing population, economic growth as well as changing climate, amongst others. It is therefore important that the hydrological regime and water resources of the basin are thoroughly evaluated and assessed so that they can be sustainably managed and utilised for maximum economic benefits. Climate change has been identified by the international community as one of the most prominent threats to peace, food security and livelihood and southern Africa as among the most vulnerable regions of the world. Water resources are perceived as a natural resource which will be affected the most by the changing climate conditions. Global warming is expected to bring more severe, prolonged droughts and exacerbate water shortages in this region. The current study is mainly focused on investigating the impacts of climate change on the water resources of the Caledon River Basin. The main objectives of the current study included assessing the past and current hydrological characteristics of the Caledon River Basin under current state of the physical environment, observed climate conditions and estimated water use; detecting any changes in the future rainfall and evaporative demands relative to present conditions and evaluating the impacts of climate on the basin’s hydrological regime and water resources availability for the future climate scenario, 2046-2065. To achieve these objectives the study used observed hydrological, meteorological data sets and the basin’s physical characteristics to establish parameters of the Pitman and WEAP hydrological models. Hydrological modelling is an integral part of hydrological investigations and evaluations. The various sources of uncertainties in the outputs of the climate and hydrological models were identified and quantified, as an integral part of the whole exercise. The 2-step approach of the uncertainty version of the model was used to estimate a range of parameters yielding behavioural natural flow ensembles. This approach uses the regional and local hydrological signals to constrain the model parameter ranges. The estimated parameters were also employed to guide the calibration process of the Water Evaluation And Planning (WEAP) model. The two models incorporated the estimated water uses within the basin to establish the present day flow simulations and they were found to sufficiently simulate the present day flows, as compared to the observed flows. There is an indication therefore, that WEAP can be successfully applied in other regions for hydrological investigations. Possible changes in future climate regime of the basin were evaluated by analysing downscaled temperature and rainfall outputs from a set of 9 climate models. The predictions are based on the A2 greenhouse gases emission scenario which assumes a continuous increase in emission rates. While the climate models agree that temperature, and hence, evapotranspiration will increase in the future, they demonstrate significant disagreement on whether rainfall will decrease or increase and by how much. The disagreement of the GCMs on projected future rainfall constitutes a major uncertainty in the prediction of water resources availability of the basin. This is to the extent that according to 7 out of 9 climate models used, the stream flow in four sub-basins (D21E, D22B, D23D and D23F) in the Caledon River Basin is projected to decrease below the present day flows, while two models (IPSL and MIUB) consistently project enhanced water resource availability in the basin in the future. The differences in the GCM projections highlight the margin of uncertainty involved predicting the future status of water resources in the basin. Such uncertainty should not be ignored and these results can be useful in aiding decision-makers to develop policies that are robust and that encompass all possibilities. In an attempt to reduce the known uncertainties, the study recommends upgrading of the hydrological monitoring network within the Caledon River Basin to facilitate improved hydrological evaluation and management. It also suggests the use of updated climate change data from the newest generation climate models, as well as integrating the findings of the current research into water resources decision making process.

In common with other natural systems, aquatic ecosystems provide a wealth of economically valuable services and long-term benefits to society. However, growing human populations, coupled with increased aspirations for improved quality of life, have lead to intense pressure on the world's finite freshwater resources. Frequently, particularly in developing countries, there are both perceived and genuine incompatibilities between ecological and societal needs for freshwater. Environmental Flow Assessment (EFA) is essentially a tool for water resources management and its ultimate goal should be the integration of ecological and societal systems. While other ecological components (i.e. biological and geomorphological) are equally important to EFA, this thesis investigates the role of the hydrological cycle and the hydrological regime in providing the ecosystem goods and services upon which society depends. Ecological and societal systems operate at different temporal, spatial and organisational scales and hydronomic zoning or sub-zoning is proposed as an appropriate water resources management technique for matching these different scales. A major component of this thesis is a review of the South African water resources management framework and, in particular, the role of the Reserve (comprising a basic human right to survival water as well as an ecological right of the aquatic resource to maintain ecological functioning) in facilitating ecologically sustainable water resources management. South African water resources management is in the early stages of water allocation reform and the Department of Water Affairs and Forestry has stated that "the water allocation process must allow for the sustainable use of water resources and must promote the efficient and non-wasteful use of water". Thus, new ways of approaching the compromise between ecological and societal needs for freshwater water are required. This thesis argues that this requires that the focus of freshwater ecosystems be extended beyond the aquatic resource, so that societal activities on the catchment are linked to the protection of instream flows. Streamflow variability plays a major role in structuring the habitat templates that sustain aquatic and riparian ecological functioning and has been associated with increased biodiversity. Biodiversity and societal well-being are interlinked. However, there is a need in EFA for knowledge of the most influential components of the streamflow regime in order that stakeholders may anticipate any change in ecosystem goods and services as a result of their disruption to the hydrological cycle. The identification of high information hydrological indicators for characterising highly variable streamflow regimes is useful to water resources management, particularly where thresholds of streamflow regime characteristics have ecological relevance. Several researchers have revisited the choice of hydrological indices in order to ascertain whether some indices explain more of the hydrological variability in different aspects of streamflow regimes than others. However, most of the research relating to hydrological indices has focused primarily on regions with temperate climates. In this thesis multivariate analysis is applied to a relatively large dataset of readily computed ecologically relevant hydrological indices (including the Indicators of Hydrological Alteration and the South African Desktop Reserve Model indices) extracted from long-term records of daily flows at 83 sites across South Africa. Principal Component Analysis is applied in order to highlight general patterns of intercorrelation, or redundancy, among the indices and to identify a minimum subset of hydrological indices which explain the majority of the variation among the indices of different components of the streamflow regimes found in South Africa. The results indicate the value of including several of the IHA indices in EFAs for South African rivers. Statistical analysis is meaningful only when calculated for a sufficiently long hydrological record, and in this thesis the length of record necessary to obtain consistent hydrological indices, with minimal influence of climatic variation, is investigated. The results provide a guide to the length of record required for analysis of the high information hydrological indices representing the main components of the streamflow regime, for different streamflow types. An ecosystem-based approach which recognises the hydrological connectivity of the catchment landscape in linking aquatic and terrestrial systems is proposed as a framework for ecologically sustainable water resources management. While this framework is intended to be generic, its potential for application in the South African Water Allocation Reform is illustrated with a case study for the Mkomazi Catchment in KwaZulu-Natal. Hydronomic sub-zoning, based on the way in which societal activities disrupt the natural hydrological processes, both off-stream and instream, is applied to assess the incompatibilities between societal and ecological freshwater needs. Reference hydrological, or pre-development, conditions in the Mkomazi Catchment are simulated using the ACRU agrohydrological model. Management targets, based on the statistical analysis of pre-development streamflow regimes, are defined to assess the degree of hydrological alteration in the high information hydrological indices of the Mkomazi Catchment as a result of different societal activities. Hydrological alteration from predevelopment conditions is assessed using the Range of Variability Approach. The results indicate that the proposed framework is useful to the formulation of stakeholder-based catchment management plans. Applying hydrological records (either observed or simulated) as an ecological resource is highly appropriate for assessing the variability that ecosystems need to maintain the biodiversity, ecological functioning and resilience that people and society desire. / Thesis (Ph.D.)-University of KwaZulu-Natal, Pietermaritzburg, 2006.