<p> In order to make informed decisions in response to future climate change, researchers, policy-makers, and the public need climate projections at the scale of few kilometers, rather than the scales provided by Global Climate Models. The North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) is such a recent effort that addresses this necessity. As the climate models contain various levels of uncertainty, it is essential to evaluate the performance of such models and their representativeness of regional climate characteristics. When assessing climate change impacts, precipitation is a crucial variable, due to its direct influence on many aspects of our natural-human ecosystems such as freshwater resources, agriculture and energy production, and health and infrastructure. The current study performs an evaluation analysis of precipitation simulations produced by a set of dynamically downscaled climate models provided by the NARCCAP program. The Assessment analysis is implemented for a period that covers 20 to 30 years (1970-1999), depending on joint availability of both the observational and the NARCCAP datasets. In addition to direct comparison versus observations, the hindcast NARCCAP simulations are used within a hydrologic modeling analysis for a regional ecosystem in coastal Louisiana (Chenier Plain). The study concludes the NARCCAP simulations have systematic biases in representing average precipitation amounts, but are successful at capturing some of the characteristics on spatial and temporal variability. The study also reveals the effect of precipitation on salinity concentrations in the Chenier Plain as a result of using different precipitation forcing fields. In the future, special efforts should be made to reduce biases in the NARCCAP simulations, which can then lead to a better presentation of regional climate scenarios for use by decision makers and resource managers.</p>

<p> The population and industrial complexes of Choctaw County obtains much of its water from an aquifer system in the Tertiary age Wilcox unit of the Mississippi Embayment. Utilizing 20 years of physical chemistry (P-Chem) analysis, potentiometric groundwater records of Choctaw County public water wells as well as industrial P-Chem analysis and surface and ground water level records from an industrial complex, this study examined the changes to the hydrosphere that has taken place since 1995. Analysis of the hydrosphere shows that over the last 20 years, there has been a drop in the potentiometric surface of the Wilcox aquifer system. The analysis also shows changes in the P-Chem of the hydrosphere, changes such as a decrease in the concentration of free CO2 and chloride, and fluctuations of Alkalinity. Comparisons between groundwater records taken from the industrial complex and other locations around Choctaw County, show little variation in the physical chemistry.</p>

<p> The Interior Alaska boreal forest ecosystem is one of the largest ecosystems on earth and lies between the warmer southerly temperate and colder Arctic regions. The ecosystem is underlain by discontinuous permafrost. The presence or absence of permafrost primarily controls water pathways and ecosystem composition. As a result, the region hosts two distinct ecotypes that transition over a very short spatial scale&mdash;often on the order of meters. Accurate mesoscale hydrological modeling of the region is critical as the region is experiencing unprecedented ecological and hydrological changes that have regional and global implications. However, accurate representation of the landscape heterogeneity and mesoscale hydrological processes has remained a big challenge. This study addressed this challenge by developing a simple landscape model from the hill-slope studies and in situ measurements over the past several decades. The new approach improves the mesoscale prediction of several hydrological processes including streamflow and evapotranspiration (ET). </p><p> The impact of climate induced landscape change under a changing climate is also investigated. In the projected climate scenario, Interior Alaska is projected to undergo a major landscape shift including transitioning from a coniferous-dominated to deciduous-dominated ecosystem and from discontinuous permafrost to either a sporadic or isolated permafrost region. This major landscape shift is predicted to have a larger and complex impact in the predicted runoff, evapotranspiration, and moisture deficit (precipitation minus evapotranspiration). Overall, a large increase in runoff, evapotranspiration, and moisture deficit is predicted under future climate. Most hydrological climate change impact studies do not usually include the projected change in landscape into the model. In this study, we found that ignoring the projected ecosystem change could lead to an inaccurate conclusion. Hence climate induced vegetation and permafrost changes must be considered in order to fully account the changes in hydrology.</p><p>

<p> Droughts reduce water resources necessary for human survival, economic development, and to sustain healthy ecosystems. Our ability to monitor and forecast droughts has grown dramatically in the past decades due to improved hydrological modeling made possible by satellite data and high computing power. However, there is still a large gap of knowledge regarding the mechanisms behind drought onset, development, and recovery. This gap prevents us from being able to forecast every severe drought and from being more confident about the effects of climate change. This thesis proposes a paradigm shift from droughts as local events to droughts as dynamic hazards that can travel in space. In this framework, droughts become the frame of reference, opening new possibilities for drought assessment and forecasting. Here, droughts are shown to have traveled across continents between 1979&mdash;2009. Patterns of frequent and common directions of displacement are identified. Precipitation recycling is proposed as an important mechanism behind these observed dynamics, and a detailed study of moisture sources over North America from 1980&mdash;2016 is carried out. This work shows that drought conditions can propagate downwind, especially from the U.S. Southwest to the U.S. Midwest, and from the northwest of Mexico and Central America to the center and south of Mexico. The effect of local precipitation recycling on drought intensification is quantified and shown to be highest in the north of Mexico and the U.S. Southwest. In a study of climate change's impacts on droughts, large biases are found in the climate models' representation of the hydrologic cycle and land-atmospheric coupling. This is shown to affect the models' drought projections by the end of the twenty-first century. Finally, this thesis includes a study of drought impacts on electricity generation and on <i>CO</i>₂, <i> SO</i>₂, and <i>NO_x</i> emissions from the power sector in the American West under current and future climates. This work advances the understanding of how droughts propagate through the hydrologic cycle locally and across continents, opening new opportunities for seasonal forecasting. It also includes a rigorous drought impact study on the electricity sector that provides useful information to stakeholders and decision makers.</p><p>

Uncertainty in climate change plays a major role in watershed systems. The increase in variability and intensity in temperature and precipitation affects hydrologic cycle in spatial and temporal dimensions. Predicting uncertainty in climate change impacts on watershed systems can help to understand future climate-induced risk on watershed systems and is essential for designing policies for mitigation and adaptation. Modeling the temporal patterns of uncertainties is assessed in the New England region for temperature and precipitation patterns over a long term. The regional uncertainty is modeled using Python scripting and GIS to analyze spatial patterns of climate change uncertainties over space and time. The results show that the regional uncertainty is significant in variation for changes in location and climatic scenarios. Watershed response to climate change under future scenarios is assessed using hydrologic simulation modeling for the Connecticut River watershed. Changes in water budgets are assessed for each of the subbasins using spatial analysis and process modeling using GIS and Soil and Water Assessment tool (SWAT). The results show that climate change uncertainty in precipitation and temperature can lead to uncertainty in both quantity and quality in the watershed system. A spatiotemporal, dynamic model was applied to subbasins within the Chicopee River Watershed to estimate climate change uncertainty impacts at a micro scale. These changes were assessed relative to changes in land use and climatic change. The results show that there is a significant potential for climate change to increase evaporation, watershed runoff and soil erosion rates and this varied with climate change uncertainty. Finally, water sustainability gradient analysis was applied to the Volga River watershed in Russia to assess potential climate change impacts by combining with downscaled Global Circulation Model estimates and spatial assessment. Results show that runoff and evapotranspiration are projected to increase with potential for more localized floods and drought events effecting both water resources and food supply. Overall results show that climate change uncertainty can impact watershed systems and spatial and temporal assessments is important for developing strategies for adaptation to climatic change conditions at local and regional scales.

<p> Long-term precipitation, temperature, and streamflow records were used to compare changes in precipitation and potential evapotranspiration to changes in runoff within 25 stream basins. Historical changes in the region appear to be more consistent with complex transient shifts in seasonal climatic conditions than with gradual climate change. Annual peak streamflow data were divided into two populations, snowmelt/spring and summer/fall, to test the hypotheses that, because of changes in precipitation regimes, the odds of summer/fall peaks have increased and, because of temperature changes, snowmelt/spring peaks happen earlier. The odds of summer/fall peaks occurring have increased across the study area. In northern portions of the study region, snowmelt/spring peaks are occurring earlier by 8.7 to 14.3 days. Tree-ring chronologies and historical precipitation data in a region around the Souris River Basin, were analyzed to model past long-term variations of precipitation. Results show that precipitation varies on multi-decadal time scales. </p><p> The Red River of the North drains much of eastern North Dakota and northwestern Minnesota and flows north into Manitoba, Canada, ultimately into Lake Winnipeg, so phosphorus transport is an International concern. Phosphorus changes over time were determined and phosphorus concentrations at the International border, when adjusted for variability in streamflow (flow-normalized), have generally increased from 1972-2012; however, most of that increase happened in the 1970s. Flux, the total amount of phosphorus transported, has increased dramatically in recent decades; however, when adjusted for streamflow variability (so that flux is from variation caused by the occurrence of high- or low-flow conditions), the flow-normalized flux has declined in recent years. This indicates that an important reason for increased flux is climatic &ndash; the wet conditions experienced since 1993. </p><p> These changes have implications for water interests, such as potential changes in lead-time for flood forecasting or changes in the operation of flood-control dams or wastewater treatment plants. Results suggest that the recent wet period may be a part of natural variability on a very long time scale and that this not only has implications for flood risk, but for nutrient export to Canada.</p>

<p> Climate change and over-use of natural resources impacts ecosystems worldwide. Understanding physical impacts from climate and natural resource use on biological processes at multiple scales of spatial and ecological organization is needed to make useful predictions under global change scenarios. Mountain aquatic ecosystems are of particular concern because they are sensitive to climate change, represent hot spots of biodiversity, and they integrate atmospheric, terrestrial and aquatic processes into biological responses. The objective of this dissertation is to quantify physical impacts and biological responses of climate and water use on mountain aquatic ecosystems in the Western United States. In Chapter 1, I developed a data set of ice break-up dates using remote sensing techniques for mountain lakes across the Sierra and Cascade Mountain Ranges coupled with downscaled climate data to quantify drivers of lake ice phenology. I developed a predictive linear mixed effects model and used and ensemble of 15 global climate models to project changes in lake ice break-up dates through the 21^st century. The results suggest that low snowpack and increased energy fluxes associated with elevated air temperatures drive earlier ice break-up dates. Projections of ice break-up show that ice break-up will be 61 &plusmn; 5 days if greenhouse gas emissions are not reduced. In Chapter 2, I analyzed specific ecological responses to earlier ice break-up dates in Castle Lake, California (a natural, sub-alpine lake). I predicted that consumer (Brook Trout; <i>Salvelinus fontinalis</i>) energetics and habitat use would be regulated by either climate driven water temperature or variation in food availability. The data suggest that earlier ice break-up results in a longer duration of surface water temperatures > 15 &deg;C, coupled with decreased and increased food production in the pelagic and littoral zones, respectively. Isotopic and telemetry data showed that consumer resources and habitat use were driven by water temperature and were independent of food availability. In early ice break-up years, consumers grew less because they were thermally excluded from productive littoral zones when water temperatures were warmer for longer periods of time relative to late ice break-up years. In Chapter 3, I demonstrate that decreased streamflow in mountain rivers can reduce abundance and size structure of food supply to drift foraging Rainbow Trout <i>(Onchorhynchus mykiss)</i>. In response to changes in streamflow and food availability, trout abandoned their energetically profitable drift foraging strategy and actively searched for prey. The shift in foraging behavior resulted in negative bioenergetic efficiencies in flow impaired sites. Taken collectively this research demonstrates that both predictable and unpredictable consequences of physical change drive biological responses across spatial gradients, ecosystem types, and levels of ecological organization.</p><p>