The purpose of the paper is to study the differences between Chinese and IMF lending in Africa, in particular the effect on economic growth and the relationship between lending and risk of debt distress. The assumption starting out were that the Chinese loans would not be marginally worse than their IMF counterparts. To analyze this, panel data for 53 countries on the African continent during the timespan 2000-2019 were used and combined into five-year average values to account for the effects of the loans. Two different types of regressions were created, one on the effects of Chinese and IMF lending on economic growth and one on the distribution and probability of Chinese and IMF loans to go to countries in risk of debt distress. The results showed no statistical significance but the comparisons that were done showed only slight differences between the two creditors.

Investigating how lending programs of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) affect poverty and inequality, we explicitly address model uncertainty. We control for endogenous selection into IMF programs using data on 86 low- and middle income countries for the 1982-2009 period and analyze program effects on various poverty and inequality measures. The results rely on averaging over 90 specifications of treatment effect models and indicate adverse short-run effects of IMF agreements on poverty and inequality for the whole sample, while for a 2000-2009 subsample the results are reversed. There is evidence that significant short-run effects might disappear in the long-run. (author's abstract)

Investigating how lending programs of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) affect poverty and inequality, we explicitly address model uncertainty. We control for endogenous selection into IMF programs using data on 86 low- and middle income countries for the 1982-2009 period and analyze program effects on various poverty and inequality measures. The results rely on averaging over 90 specifications of treatment effect models and indicate adverse short-run effects of IMF agreements on poverty and inequality for the whole sample, while for a 2000-2009 subsample the results are reversed. There is evidence that significant short-run effects might disappear in the long-run. (author's abstract) / Series: Department of Economics Working Paper Series