The coastal section of the London to Penzance railway line (Dawlish-Teignmouth) lies very close to sea level and has been susceptible to frequent closure during high seas and storm events. As the main railway connection for the southwest of England to the rest of Great Britain, it is a vital transport link for the Devon and Cornwall economy. Current understanding of future sea-level rise in the region is compromised by a lack of reliable geological data on which to establish accurate future sea-level projections. Furthermore, the impacts – in engineering and economic terms – of potential sea-level change on the long-term functioning of the main railway are unclear, and future policy making and planning are compromised by a similar gap in scientific knowledge. The central aim of this thesis is to establish the extent to which future sea-level changes will impact upon the Southwest’s main railway line. This aim carries three objectives: (1) to establish accurate sea-level trends over the last 4000 years (late Holocene) in order to validate geophysical models used in current future sea-level projections in the southwest of England; (2) to establish the likely impacts of future sea-level change on the functioning of the Dawlish-Teignmouth railway line; and (3) to integrate climate and socio-economic futures (scenarios) in an internally consistent manner for future use in regional policy debates. In addressing these objectives, we estimate that during the last 2000 years the coast of south Devon has subsided at a rate of ~1.1 mm/yr, generating a relative sea-level rise of ~0.9 mm/yr. The geophysical model (used to determine regional sea-level projections) underestimates the geologically estimated coastal subsidence rate by only 17%, which would generate an additional sea-level rise, compared to predicted values, of 0.014 m by 2100. Based on an empirical trend between increases in sea-level changes and rail functioning during the last 40 years, the corrected sea-level projections provide input for establishing future days with line restrictions due to overtopping on the Southwest Mainline. Impacts to both the Southwest economy (e.g., rail users) and the infrastructure owners have been determined, and integrating these forecasts with socio-economic scenarios (SES) has highlighted the important interaction between climate and socio-economic trends and future vulnerability. In a worst case scenario (e.g., high emissions), rail services are predicted to be disrupted (on average) for around 35% of the winter by 2060. By this stage, the cost of these disruptions will have exceeded the capital needed for constructing a new alternative inland route.

Made available in DSpace on 2014-07-29T15:32:13Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertacao Lara Cristine Gomes Ferreira.pdf: 3398874 bytes, checksum: eca827e932ec567a736addd2fdf5a3cb (MD5) Previous issue date: 2010-03-30 / The national and international demand for ethanol has grown in recent years, due mainly to search for new energy sources and cheaper. In this context, Brazil has been increasing and is currently the largest producer of ethanol (from cane sugar) the world. In recent expansion of sugar cane, the state of Goiás is configured in an area favorable for growing cane, is the geoenvironmental characteristics and / or existing infrastructure and cheaper land, compared to southeastern Brazil. In some regions of São Paulo stand out in sugar cane production and sugar and alcohol projects implementation, the micro Ceres is the center of the Goiás region with increased production of cane sugar and quantity of plants in operation and in the process of implementation / registration, are eleven to total. These plants socio-economically streamline the region's economy moving, creating new jobs and bringing new relations between the enterprise and the residents, merchants / service providers and farmers (landowners). However, these complex developments in a series of negative effects such as seasonality in employment generation due to the inter-harvest period, the precariousness of work, especially related to cutting and manual harvesting of sugar cane, also found in plants as most of the micro-Ceres, the system of concessions, which often "force" the owner to lease their land for plants (as the production of sugarcane as a monoculture, it requires a large amount of land for cultivation, as plants have little land is necessary to lease land from other owners, putting together various properties, are small, medium and / or large), the owner if it is a small owner does not have much booty for the payment relates to the size of the land, in addition to expropriation and consequent rural exodus, which in this case is very common. This study aimed to contribute to the theme of expansion of the sugar industry and its dynamics and impacts associated, especially in the cities of Ceres microregion plants that have deployed, but realizing that this dynamic goes through the fronts of those municipalities, host plants, and end up involving municipalities neighbors, then tried to understand the issues proposed using the regional level. It is understood the relevance of this theme, considering the importance to continue this study to other regions and municipalities of Goiás, especially in this time of growing sugarcane for the state, as each place has its own dynamics and therefore different impacts could arise. / A demanda nacional e internacional por etanol cresceu muito nos últimos anos, devido principalmente a busca por novas fontes de energia renováveis e mais baratas. Neste contexto, o Brasil vem se destacando, sendo atualmente o maior produtor de etanol (de cana-de-açúcar) do mundo. Nessa recente expansão canavieira, o Estado de Goiás configura-se em área favorável ao cultivo de cana, seja pelas caracteristicas geoambientais e/ou infraestrutura existente e terras mais baratas, se comparado a região sudeste brasileira. Em Goiás algumas regiões se destacam na produção canavieira e implantação de empreendimentos sucroalcooleiros; a microrregião Ceres é a região do centro goiano com maior produção de cana-de-açúcar e quantidade de usinas em funcionamento e em processo de implantação/cadastro, são onze ao total. Essas usinas dinamizam sócio-economicamente essa região movimentando a economia, gerando novos empregos e trazendo novas relações entre o empreendimento e os moradores, os comerciantes/prestadores de serviço e produtores rurais (proprietários de terras). Contudo, esses complexos empreendimentos trazem uma série de impactos negativos, como a sazonalidade na geração de empregos, devido ao período da entressafra; a precarização do trabalho, sobretudo, relacionado ao corte e colheita manual da cana, ainda verificado como maioria nas usinas da microrregião Ceres; ao sistema de arrendamentos de terras, que muitas vezes força o proprietário a arrendar suas terras para as usinas (já que a produção canavieira, como uma monocultura, necessita de uma grande extensão de terras para o cultivo, como as usinas possuem poucas terras próprias é preciso arrendá-las de outros proprietários, aglutinando várias propriedades, sejam pequenas, médias e/ou grandes), o arrendador se for um pequeno proprietário não terá muitos ganhos, pois o pagamento está ligado ao tamanho das terras, além da expropriação e consequente êxodo rural, que nesse caso é muito comum. Este trabalho buscou contribuir com a temática de expansão do setor sucroalcooleiro e suas dinâmicas e impactos relacionados, principalmente, nos municípios da microrregião Ceres que possuem usinas implantadas, porém entendendo que esta dinâmica perpassa as fronterias desses municípios, sede das usinas, e acabam envolvendo municípios vizinhos, tentou-se então, compreender a problemática proposta utilizando-se do recorte regional. Entende-se a relevância dessa temática, considerando a importancia de continuar este estudo a outros municípios e regiões de Goiás, sobretudo, neste momento de expansão sucroalcooleira para o Estado, já que cada lugar possui sua própria dinâmica e consequentemente diferentes impactos poderão surgir.