Several previous studies have found that various characteristics of the Indian monsoon rainfall have shown secular changes over the past century. In this study, using a gridded (1degree) daily rainfall dataset, we analyse the spatio-temporal characteristics of the intensity and duration of monsoon (June through September) rainfall for secular changes over the last 50 years. The characteristics of the duration of rain events are described by wet and dry spells. A wet/dry spell is defined as a period of consecutive days with rainfall above/below a particular threshold. We choose to use a threshold that is a function of the local climatological mean, given the spatial heterogeneity of mean monsoon rainfall. The wet and dry spells are then divided into three categories: short [1 to 7 days], moderate [8 to 10 days], long [11 and more days] and analysed for changes over the past 50 years [19512000]. We find that while the number of short duration wet spells show a significant increase over the last 50 years (~15% change), the number of long duration wet spells show a significant decrease (~25%). Furthermore, while the numbers of short duration dry periods have shown a significant increase, the moderate and long duration dry spells do not shown an appreciable change. This increase and decrease in the short and long duration wet spells offset each other and consequently the total number of rainy days during the season has not shown any significant change over the past 50 years. In addition to the duration of wet and dry spells, we also analysed for changes in the accumulated rainfall of the short, medium and long duration wet spells. Our analysis suggests that while the depth of accumulated rainfall in short duration wet spells has shown a significant increase (~20%), the depth of rain in the long duration spells has shown a significant decrease (~30%) in the past fifty years.

In the current study, we have presented a systematic analysis of the diurnal cycle of rainfall over the Indian region using satellite observations, and evaluated the ability of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) to simulate some of the salient features of the observed diurnal characteristics of rainfall. Using high resolution simulations, we also investigate the underlying mechanisms of some of the observed diurnal signatures of rainfall. Using the Tropical Rain-fall Measuring Mission (TRMM) 3-hourly, 0.25 ×0.25 degree 3B42 rainfall product for nine years (1999-2007), we extract the finer spatial structure of the diurnal scale signature of Indian summer monsoon rainfall. Using harmonic analysis, we construct a signal corresponding to diurnal and sub-diurnal variability. Subsequently, the 3-hourly time-period or the octet of rain-fall peak for this filtered signal, referred to as the “peak octet,” is estimated with care taken to eliminate spurious peaks arising out of Gibbs oscillations. Our analysis suggests that over the Bay of Bengal, there are three distinct modes of the peak octet of diurnal rainfall corresponding to 1130, 1430 and 1730 IST, from north central to south Bay. This finding could be seen to be consistent with southward propagation of the diurnal rainfall pattern reported by earlier studies. Over the Arabian sea, there is a spatially coherent pattern in the mode of the peak octet (1430 IST), in a region where it rains for more than 30% of the time. In the equatorial Indian Ocean, while most of the western part shows a late night/early morning peak, the eastern part does not show a spatially coherent pattern in the mode of the peak octet, owing to the occurrence of a dual maxima (early morning and early/late afternoon). The Himalayan foothills were found to have a mode of peak octet corresponding to 0230 IST, whereas over the Burmese mountains and the Western Ghats (west coast of India) the rainfall peaks during late afternoon/early evening (1430-1730 IST). This implies that the phase of the diurnal cycle over inland orography (e.g., Himalayas) is significantly different from coastal orography (e.g., Western Ghats). We also find that over the Gangetic plains, the peak octet is around 1430 IST, a few hours earlier compared to the typical early evening maxima over land. The second part of our study involves evaluating the ability of the Weather Research and Fore-casting Model (WRF) to simulate the observed diurnal rainfall characteristics. It also includes conducting high resolution simulations to explore the underlying physical mechanisms of the observed diurnal signatures of rainfall. The model (at 54km resolution) is integrated for the month of July 2006 since this period was particularly favourable for the study of diurnal cycle. We first evaluate the sensitivity of the model to the prescribed sea surface temperature (SST) by using two different SST datasets, namely Final Analyses (FNL) and Real-time Global (RTG). The overall performance of RTG SST was found to be better than FNL, and hence it was used for further model simulations. Next, we investigated the impact of different parameterisations (convective, microphysical, boundary layer, radiation and land surface) on the simulation of diurnal cycle of rainfall. Following this sensitivity study, we identified the suite of physical parameterisations in the model that “best” reproduces the observed diurnal characteristics of Indian monsoon rainfall. The “best” model configuration was used to conduct two nested simulations with one-way, three-level nesting (54-18-6km) over central India and Bay of Bengal. While the 54km and 18km simulations were conducted for July 2006, the 6km simulation was carried out for the period 18-24 July 2006. This period was chosen for our study since it is composed of an active period (19-21 July 2006), followed by a break period (22-24 July 2006). At 6km grid-spacing the model is able to realistically simulate the active and break phases in rainfall. During the chosen active phase, we find that the observed rainfall over central India tends to reach a maximum in the late night/early morning hours. This is in contrast to the observed climatological diurnal maxima of late evening hours. Interestingly, the 6km simulation for the active phase is able to reproduce this late night/early morning maxima. Upon further analysis, we find that this is because of the strong moisture convergence at the mid-troposphere during 2030-2330 IST, leading to the rainfall peak seen during 2330-0230 IST. Based on our analysis, we conclude that during both active and break phases of summer monsoon, mid-level moisture convergence seems to be one of the primary factors governing the phase of the diurnal cycle of rainfall. Over the Bay of Bengal, the 6km model simulation is in very good agreement with observations, particularly during the active phase. The southward propagation observed during 19-20 July 2006, which was not captured by the coarse resolution simulation (54km), is exceedingly well captured by the 6km simulation. The positive anomalies in specific humidity attain a maxima during 2030-0230 IST in the north and during 0830-1430 IST in the south. This confirms the role of moisture convergence in the southward propagation of rainfall. Equally importantly we find that while low level moisture convergence is dominant in the north Bay, it is the mid-level moisture convergence that is predominant in the south Bay.

Reconstruction studies of seasonal rainfall utilizing stable isotope based proxy approach suffer from the limitations of time resolutions. Conventional methods and archives limit the achievable resolution to annual scales. However, high resolution reconstruction (seasonal to sub-weekly scale) can be achieved in proxy records where growth rates are high enough to leave spatial signatures in an organically or inorganically deposited layer such as growth bands. In this study, aragonitic skeleton of the gastropod Lissachatina fulica (Bowdich, Giant African Land Snails) is investigated with an aim to achieve sub-weekly scale reconstruction of the Indian monsoon rainfall. These terrestrial gastropods are native of Africa and highly invasive. Their evolution in the geological time period dates back to the Pliocene and is presently distributed across the tropical belt. They exhibit a high growth rate in the presence of water and high relative humidity in the environment. As a result, they are ideally suited for the task of palaeo seasonality reconstruction. The isotopic patterns recorded in their growth bands reveal composition of environmental water at seasonal time scales. In vitro studies were carried out on L. fulica to estimate their growth rates and growth responses to changes in the physical conditions within the culture chamber. The Indian monsoon rainfall exhibits characteristic dry spells that are generally sandwiched between periods of active phases of high rainfall during the South West monsoon season. These dry spells are typically characterized by rainfall with low intensity. Isotope fingerprinting of the rain water at daily time resolution, covering the years of 2007-10 exhibited distinct isotopic ratios for the dry and wet spells. Dry spells were clearly demarcated in the record with isotopically enriched signature. In addition, the study indentified the role of three distinct moisture sources on δ18O of rain water at Bangalore, India. The variability in the oxygen isotopic composition of the Indian monsoon rainfall is predominantly controlled by this source moisture variability at inter annual time scales, while temperature and amount of rainfall tend to dominate the variability in the precipitation isotopes at seasonal and weekly scales. Simultaneous isotopic analyses of both rainwater and shell carbonates growth bands were undertaken to understand their relationship to aid in high resolution reconstruction. Carbonate found in the growth bands of the gastropods, which is precipitated under equilibrium condition from rainwater, preserves the signature of rainfall. This provides an opportunity to reconstruct rainfall parameters (i.e. amount and moisture sources) knowing the variability in shell carbonates. Stable isotopic ratios measured across the growth bands of live shell specimens collected from the southern and eastern Indian regions (Bangalore and Kolkata, respectively) were compared with the rainfall isotope ratios at these two locations; signature of dry spells were clearly identified from the study of isotopic composition in the growth bands of the gastropod specimens. The approach was also extended to older samples from historical archives from eastern Indian region (Kolkata, East India). Individual specimens belonging to the same species of gastropod, which were collected during the monsoon season of the year 1918 were used for reconstructing the seasonal pattern in monsoon rainfall over the region. The record of variation in the isotopic composition seen in the shell was compared with the rainfall data from Indian Metrological Division observatory at Kolkata station. The year 1918 was characterized as a major drought year and the signature of dry period was seen preserved in the specimen. The work under taken in this thesis will widen the scope of seasonality reconstruction using terrestrial shell fossils from palaeo records, which have been rarely investigated in paleoclimate studies from the perspective of understanding the seasonal precipitation variability.

Reconstruction studies of seasonal rainfall utilizing stable isotope based proxy approach suffer from the limitations of time resolutions. Conventional methods and archives limit the achievable resolution to annual scales. However, high resolution reconstruction (seasonal to sub-weekly scale) can be achieved in proxy records where growth rates are high enough to leave spatial signatures in an organically or inorganically deposited layer such as growth bands. In this study, aragonitic skeleton of the gastropod Lissachatina fulica (Bowdich, Giant African Land Snails) is investigated with an aim to achieve sub-weekly scale reconstruction of the Indian monsoon rainfall. These terrestrial gastropods are native of Africa and highly invasive. Their evolution in the geological time period dates back to the Pliocene and is presently distributed across the tropical belt. They exhibit a high growth rate in the presence of water and high relative humidity in the environment. As a result, they are ideally suited for the task of palaeo seasonality reconstruction. The isotopic patterns recorded in their growth bands reveal composition of environmental water at seasonal time scales. In vitro studies were carried out on L. fulica to estimate their growth rates and growth responses to changes in the physical conditions within the culture chamber. The Indian monsoon rainfall exhibits characteristic dry spells that are generally sandwiched between periods of active phases of high rainfall during the South West monsoon season. These dry spells are typically characterized by rainfall with low intensity. Isotope fingerprinting of the rain water at daily time resolution, covering the years of 2007-10 exhibited distinct isotopic ratios for the dry and wet spells. Dry spells were clearly demarcated in the record with isotopically enriched signature. In addition, the study indentified the role of three distinct moisture sources on δ18O of rain water at Bangalore, India. The variability in the oxygen isotopic composition of the Indian monsoon rainfall is predominantly controlled by this source moisture variability at inter annual time scales, while temperature and amount of rainfall tend to dominate the variability in the precipitation isotopes at seasonal and weekly scales. Simultaneous isotopic analyses of both rainwater and shell carbonates growth bands were undertaken to understand their relationship to aid in high resolution reconstruction. Carbonate found in the growth bands of the gastropods, which is precipitated under equilibrium condition from rainwater, preserves the signature of rainfall. This provides an opportunity to reconstruct rainfall parameters (i.e. amount and moisture sources) knowing the variability in shell carbonates. Stable isotopic ratios measured across the growth bands of live shell specimens collected from the southern and eastern Indian regions (Bangalore and Kolkata, respectively) were compared with the rainfall isotope ratios at these two locations; signature of dry spells were clearly identified from the study of isotopic composition in the growth bands of the gastropod specimens. The approach was also extended to older samples from historical archives from eastern Indian region (Kolkata, East India). Individual specimens belonging to the same species of gastropod, which were collected during the monsoon season of the year 1918 were used for reconstructing the seasonal pattern in monsoon rainfall over the region. The record of variation in the isotopic composition seen in the shell was compared with the rainfall data from Indian Metrological Division observatory at Kolkata station. The year 1918 was characterized as a major drought year and the signature of dry period was seen preserved in the specimen. The work under taken in this thesis will widen the scope of seasonality reconstruction using terrestrial shell fossils from palaeo records, which have been rarely investigated in paleoclimate studies from the perspective of understanding the seasonal precipitation variability.

River discharge can affect ocean surface temperature by altering stratification within the oceanic mixed layer. A hitherto unexplored aspect of present climate is the feedback of river runoff onto climate. This thesis presents an investigation of the impact of global river runoff on oceans and climate using a fully coupled global climate model, Community Climate System Model (CCSM). Two model simulations for a period of 100 years have been carried out: 1) a reference run (CTRL) that incorporates all the features of a global coupled model with river runoff into the ocean embedded in it, and 2) a sensitivity run (NoRiv) in which the global river runoff into the ocean is blocked. Comparison of model climate devoid of fluvial discharge with the reference run reveals the significance of fluvial discharge in the present climate. By the end of 50 years of NoRiv experiment, salinity growth slows down and reaches a quasi-stable state. Regions close to river mouths exhibited maximum salinity rise that can potentially alter local density and stratification. On an average, denser and saltier waters in the NoRiv run annihilate barrier layer and form a deeper mixed layer, compared to CTRL run. Density gradient created by the modulation in salinity set forth anomalous currents and circulation across coastlines that carries coastal anomalies to open ocean, preventing local salinity buildup. Arctic Ocean, Bay of Bengal, northern high latitude Pacific and the Atlantic are the most affected regions in terms of changes in salinity and temperature. Model simulations demonstrate that major transformation in Arctic freshwater budget can have potential impact on northern Pacific and Atlantic climate. In the absence of runoff, global average sea surface temperature (SST) rise by about ~ 0.5oC, with major contribution from northern higher latitude oceans. In the Pacific, high latitude warming is related to deepening of mixed layer as well as the northward transport of low latitude warmer waters. Substantial cooling in the central equatorial Pacific (~1oC during winter) can alter large-scale ocean-atmosphere circulation, including El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The reinforcement of Pacific and Atlantic western boundary currents aids the transport of warm saline water from low latitudes to higher latitudes. The results suggest that the river runoff can have potential impact on oceanic climate. Response of Indian summer monsoon rainfall to global continental runoff is also examined. In the NoRiv run, average summer monsoon rainfall over India increased by ~ 0.55 mm day−1. Consistent with the increase in annual average Indian monsoon rainfall, all other northern hemispheric monsoon systems showed an increase, while southern hemispheric monsoons weakened. Associated with enhanced monsoon, the periodicity of ENSO in the NoRiv run changes as a result of cooling tendency in the equatorial Pacific, a sign of consistent La Niña. Equatorial Pacific cooling, in spite of a global ocean warming trend, is found to be primarily because of the enhanced local easterly winds and resultant strong equatorial upwelling. Cold anomaly due to upwelling spread entire equatorial Pacific basin within a span of 50 years. The La Niña situation in the Pacific favored increased monsoon rainfall over Indian subcontinent. Another surprising result of this study is the strengthening of ENSO-monsoon relationship in the NoRiv run. This suggests that the river discharge can be considered as a dampening force in the ENSO-monsoon relationship. Northern hemisphere showed a clear warming in the NoRiv simulation compared to CTRL, the result of which is an enhanced trans-hemispheric gradient. Cross-equatorial winds triggered by this gradient blow from southern hemisphere and shift the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) northward, increasing the precipitation in the northern hemisphere. The cooling in the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean and the warming in the west, reflected in the increase in number of positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events (9 positive and 5 negative IOD events in the last 50 years), also favored summer-time rainfall over India.