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This project considers the pace of change in international law, focusing on sources of evolution and stagnation. I attempt to determine why negotiators defer to existing law in some situations and not others. To that end, this study explores country preferences towards the status quo in international negotiations. I hypothesize that deference to existing international law is more likely under four conditions. First, countries that have experienced a decline in relative power should promote deference to existing international law. Second, declining powers that have allowed private access by their citizens to existing international institutions should have greater domestic political pressure to protect those arrangements. Third, this relationship should be particularly strong if interested citizens are able to participate (perhaps through the ratification process) in subsequent negotiations. Finally, more complex negotiations (i.e., those including more participants) should result in greater deference to existing international law. The project tests these hypotheses with statistical analysis on a random sample of multilateral treaties, as well as case studies of negotiation practices in the United States, India, and the European Union. The analysis supports all four conjectures, and notes interactions between them. / Dissertation

Submitted by Elesbão Santiago Neto (neto10uepb@cche.uepb.edu.br) on 2018-05-14T18:21:21Z No. of bitstreams: 1 PDF - Anderson Matias Cardozo.pdf: 40980536 bytes, checksum: 02b8d2a1c47f1d52ad2f9e11dd98820e (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2018-05-14T18:21:21Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 PDF - Anderson Matias Cardozo.pdf: 40980536 bytes, checksum: 02b8d2a1c47f1d52ad2f9e11dd98820e (MD5) Previous issue date: 2013-05-27 / CAPES / East Asia since the 1990s, is characterized by the presence of actors with growing capacity both in economic terms and in political and strategic objectives, clear or not, exercise leadership at the regional and international levels, and the region with the increased presence of nuclear powers. In this sense, the ongoing Chinese rise, with greater influence in Southeast Asia, it still presents itself as a possible threat to Indian interests. On the other hand, The United states has always had a strong influence in the region and increasingly demonstrates officially his intention to remain in Asia and prevent growth of other actors that might compromise its traditional role in terms of safety and even undermine their economic interests. In this process, also excels at the role of Japan, considered the beginning of 1990 as one that could replace the United States, saw its possibilities gradually being weakened by Chinese growth. In this sense, this paper seeks to examine and analyze the process of inclusion of India in the Asian continent, due to the inflection of his foreign and economic policies in the Post Cold War. On one hand, India will seek to insert themselves in Asian production networks, today led by China and on the other, will see constrained by the demands of Japanese-American to be a force that can counter the growing Chinese power. And among this movement that leads to the need for stronger economic ties with China and political-strategic approaches with the United States and Japan as opposed to China, India maintains its project of becoming a regional power in this century XXI. / O Leste asiático, desde a década de 1990, é caracterizado pela presença de atores com capacidade crescente tanto na dimensão econômica quanto na político-estratégica e com objetivos, claros ou não, de exercício de liderança nos planos regional e internacional, sendo a região com a maior presença de potências nucleares. Neste sentido, a contínua ascensão chinesa, com uma maior influência no Sudeste Asiático, não deixa de se apresentar como uma possível ameaça aos interesses indianos. De outro lado, Estados Unidos sempre teve forte influência na região e cada vez mais demonstra oficialmente sua intenção de se manter na Ásia e evitar crescimento de outros atores que possam comprometer seu tradicional papel no plano da segurança e mesmo prejudicar seus interesses econômicos. Neste processo, sobressai-se igualmente o papel do Japão que, considerado no início dos 1990 como aquele que poderia substituir Estados Unidos, viu paulatinamente suas possibilidades serem enfraquecidas pelo crescimento chinês. Neste sentido, o presente trabalho busca examinar e analisar o processo de inserção da Índia no continente asiático, decorrente da inflexão de suas políticas externa e econômica no Pós Guerra Fria. De um lado, Índia procurará inserir-se nas redes produtivas asiáticas, hoje lideradas pela China e, de outro, ver-se-á constrangida pelas demandas nipo-americanas de ser uma força que possa contrabalançar o crescente poder chinês. E, entre este movimento que leva à necessidade de fortes vínculos econômicos com a China e aproximações político-estratégicas com Estados Unidos e Japão em oposição à China, a Índia mantém seu projeto de se transformar em uma potência regional neste século XXI.

Afin d’analyser la posture diplomatique actuelle de l’Inde sur la scène internationale, ce travail de recherche étudie les processus d’institutionnalisation et d’adaptation du ministère des Affaires étrangères indien de 1947 à 2015. Le dispositif théorique de cette thèse conjugue les recherches menées sur l’adaptation des ministères des Affaires étrangères comme acteurs centraux de la diplomatie et la sociologie politique des institutions. En effet, on ne peut comprendre l’évolution de la diplomatie indienne que si on l’analyse à partir d’une démarche micro sociologique, par l’étude de ses lieux de production. Ces lieux désignent dans un sens restreint l’organisation du ministère des Affaires étrangères et le rôle qui y est joué par les diplomates. Dans un sens plus large, ils renvoient à l’interaction de ce ministère avec l’environnement diplomatique national et international. Cette thèse vise à démontrer la façon dont la vulnérabilité du ministère des Affaires étrangères indien, déterminée par son sous-dimensionnement structurel et sa marginalisation croissante dans le processus de décision, conditionne son adaptation graduelle aux évolutions de la mondialisation. Cette adaptation se manifeste par la plus grande importance donnée aux pratiques de « low diplomacy » comme la diplomatie économique, publique et consulaire. Mais elle reste fortement limitée, ce qui explique la posture diplomatique prudente de l’Inde sur la scène internationale, contrainte par la priorité donnée au développement économique du pays. / In order to analyse the evolution of India’s diplomacy, this work studies the adaptation of the Indian Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) from 1947 to 2015, using a sociological approach to institutions. We argue that the evolution of Indian diplomacy can be better understood by studying its production at a micro level, which relates both to the organisation of the MEA and its interactions with other actors of Indian diplomacy. This work shows that the vulnerability of the Indian MEA is determined by its structural weaknesses and its growing marginalisation within the foreign policy decision making process. This vulnerability restrains the MEA’s adaptation to the evolutions of globalisation. The adaptation is gradual and is manifested by the growing importance given to the practice of low diplomacy (economic, public and consular diplomacy). Nevertheless, it remains greatly limited and constrained by domestic imperatives of economic development. That explains, to a large extent, many of India’s prudent diplomatic decisions.