This thesis discusses various issues in the estimation of models for count data. In the first part of the thesis, we derive an analytic expression for the bias of the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) of the parameter in a doubly-truncated Poisson distribution, which proves highly effective as a means of bias correction. We explore the circumstances under which bias is likely to be problematic, and provide some indication of the statistical significance of the bias. Over a range of sample sizes, our method outperforms the alternative of bias correction via the parametric bootstrap. We show that MLEs obtained from sample sizes which elicit appreciable bias also have sampling distributions which are unsuited to be approximated by large-sample asymptotics, and bootstrapping confidence intervals around our bias-adjusted estimator is preferred, as two tiers of bootstrapping may incur a heavy computational burden. Modelling count data where the counts are strictly positive is often accomplished using a positive Poisson distribution. Inspection of the data sometimes reveals an excess of ones, analogous to zero-inflation in a regular Poisson model. The latter situation has well developed methods for modelling and testing, such as the zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) model, and a score test for zero-inflation in a ZIP model. The issue of count inflation in a positive Poisson distribution does not seem to have been considered in a similar way. In the second part of the thesis, we propose a one-inflated positive Poisson (OIPP) model, and develop a score test to determine whether there are “too many” ones for a positive Poisson model to fit well. We explore the performance of our score test, and compare it to a likelihood ratio test, via Monte Carlo simulation. We find that the score test performs well, and that the OIPP model may be useful in many cases. The third part of the thesis considers the possibility of one-inflation in zero-truncated data, when overdispersion is present. We propose a new model to deal with such a phenomenon, the one-inflated zero-truncated negative binomial (OIZTNB) model. The finite sample properties of the maximum likelihood estimators for the parameters of such a model are discussed. This Chapter considers likelihood ratio tests which assist in specifying the OIZTNB model, and investigates the finite sample properties of such tests. The OIZTNB model is illustrated using the medpar data set, which describes the hospital length of stay for a set of patients in Arizona. This is a data set that is widely used to highlight the merits of the zero-truncated negative binomial (ZTNB) model. We find that our OIZTNB model fits the data better than does the ZTNB model, and this leads us to conclude that the data are generated by a one-inflated process. / Graduate

The thesis investigates the effects of false memory and belief in the paranormal on reports of events. The first chapter reviews the existing literature on false memory. The main theories of how false memory develops are described and the individual differences of those susceptible to false memories are considered. The paranormal belief literature is then examined, particularly with regard to the cognitive differences between believers and disbelievers. It is concluded that these differences would be suggestive of a relationship between paranormal belief and false memory. The second chapter considers the relationship between imagination inflation, paranormal belief and ESP. No correlation between the factors was found. The third chapter examines whether pre-event suggestion and belief in the paranormal can affect experiences of `ghostly' phenomena in an allegedly haunted location. Evidence for the effect of belief in the paranormal was found, but there was no effect of pre-event suggestion or an interaction between the two factors. The fourth chapter investigates the effects of positive and negative during-event suggestion and paranormal belief on reports of events in the seance room, and the fifth chapter explores the effects of duringevent suggestion on reports of a key bending video. There was some evidence that during-event suggestion is effective in altering reports of events, and the causes for this effect are considered. Paranormal belief was not shown to consistently affect acceptance of suggestion, but may affect reports of phenomena which are judged to be paranormal. The thesis concludes that during-event suggestion and negative suggestion are areas which offer great potential for further research. The relationship between paranormal belief and false memory development has not been demonstrated. However, it has been shown that belief and suggestion can affect the manner in which situations are attended to and interpreted.

No description available.

Previous research has documented a negative relation between inflation and stock returns in the U.S. and selected developed countries during the post-war era. Their findings are inconsistent with the classical theory that real returns to the ownership of capital goods, such as stocks, are invariant to the general price level. / There seems to be a foregone conclusion that in the short-run when counter-cyclical measures are applied by developed countries to contain inflation, stock returns are negatively related to inflation. It will be interesting to know whether the above observation can also be found in emerging markets such as Hong Kong. / This paper finds that stock returns and inflation in Hong Kong are generally positively related, but the relation is statistically insignificant. It also finds that there is a reverse causal relation through which stock returns influence inflation in Hong Kong. This wealth effect is evident in all three periods tested, and is statistically significant in two of the three tested periods. / This paper finds that money supply (“M2”) can be a good indicator of stock market performance. We find that M2 is positively related to stock returns in Hong Kong in all three periods tested with very significant t-statistics. Investors can use this information to enhance their prediction of the overall stock market performance and thus improve their investment return. / U.S. investors can invest in Hong Kong stocks to enhance their real return. This paper finds that there is a positive relation between U.S. inflation and Hong Kong stock market return which may qualify Hong Kong stocks as a hedge against inflation for U.S. investors. As an emerging market, Hong Kong's inflation has been higher than that in the U.S. Stock market returns are also higher than those in the U.S. in nominal terms and in real terms against U.S. inflation. Also, the currency board system implemented in Hong Kong has virtually eliminated currency risk for U.S. investors during the past 20 years, although there is no guarantee that such a system will remain forever. However, we find that the portfolio performance of Hong Kong stocks and U.S. stocks, adjusted for the volatility factor, have been very similar during the last two decades. We therefore are not able to conclude that investing in Hong Kong stocks is superior to investing in U.S. stocks. U.S. investors should consider their portfolio mix and risk tolerance level carefully before investing in Hong Kong stocks. / Although the positive relation between inflation and stock market return found in this paper is not statistically significant, we did find a strong negative relation between deflation and stock returns during the deflationary period in Hong Kong. This result is statistically significant and is in general consistent with our finding of the positive relation between inflation and stock returns, but much stronger statistically. As recent developments indicate that the likelihood of the world economy experiencing disinflation or deflation is increasing, more studies should be done regarding the relation between deflation and other economic variables, such as stock returns. / Thesis (PhDBusinessandManagement)--University of South Australia, 2004.

Thesis (M.A.)--University of Missouri-Columbia, 2007. / The entire dissertation/thesis text is included in the research.pdf file; the official abstract appears in the short.pdf file (which also appears in the research.pdf); a non-technical general description, or public abstract, appears in the public.pdf file. Title from title screen of research.pdf file (viewed on April 2, 2008) Includes bibliographical references.

Thesis (Ph. D.)--State University of New York at Binghamton, Department of Economics, 2007. / Includes bibliographical references.

Hochschule f. Wirtschafts-, Rechts- und Sozialwiss., Diss--St. Gallen, 1993.

Universiẗat Duisburg-Essen, Diplomarbeit--Duisburg, 2005.

Univ., Diss.--Lausanne, 2007.

Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of Texas at Austin, 2008. / Vita. Includes bibliographical references.