published_or_final_version / Zoology / Master / Master of Philosophy

published_or_final_version / Community Medicine / Doctoral / Doctor of Philosophy

published_or_final_version / Public Administration / Master / Master of Public Administration

published_or_final_version / Community Medicine / Master / Master of Public Health

published_or_final_version / Community Medicine / Master / Master of Public Health

published_or_final_version / abstract / toc / Microbiology / Doctoral / Doctor of Philosophy

學校停課在世界各國的流感大流行應對方案中常被列為一項社區緩疫措施，而這項措施亦在2009年H1N1流感大流行中被廣泛地使用。然而，這項緩疫措施經常被質疑是否恰當，原因是因為停課會對教育構成重大的影響，而且過往的流行病學硏究亦表示這項緩疫措施不一定有效。本論文硏究學校停課對2009年H1N1流感大流行在香港首5個月疫情中降低大流行流感傳播的效能。 / 在香港，在該大流行流感病毒於2009年4月在美國被發現後，香港政府實施了控疫措施(containment phase measures)，並開始對該流感大流行進行監測。為了判定大流行是否已在香港內蔓延，衛生防護中心設定了一個報告準則來讓本地醫生報告疑似大流行流感感染個案，並為每個懷疑個案作確診測試及為每個確診個案追溯感染源頭。當大流行流感在6月開始在香港內蔓延時，香港政府實施了緩疫措施(mitigation phase measures)。在緩疫措施底下，帶有流感病症的病人求診於指定流感診所和公共醫院急症室會被測試是否感染大流行流感，而停課措施亦在此時開始實行去減低大流行流感的傳播。停課措施一直維持至7月直至暑假開始，並經修改後於9月開學時繼續實行。在9月，鑑於已不再需要對流感大流行進行監測，對懷疑感染個案進行確診測試的政策止於該月下旬。確診個案中記錄了的病人資料，與及由學校停課和暑假所引起的學期變化，為這課題提供了一個理想硏究的機會。 / 在2009年的5月至9月，一共確診了27,687宗大流行流感個案。在確診個案中，所有個案都記錄了確診者的年歲和確診日期，而88%確診者提供了一個可定位的住宅地址。為了觀察學校停課的緩疫效果，本硏究定義了5個社會經濟年齡級別(socio-economic age classes) (當中包括有小學生和中學生)，並繪製了年齡級別與地域特定的疫情曲線(age-class-and-district-specific epidemic curves)。所有的疫情曲線在大流行流感在6月開始在香港蔓延後均穩步上升，而在屬於小學生和中學生的疫情曲線中能看到一個不尋常的上升出現在9月新學年開始時，意味著中小學生在學校的活動提升了大流行流感在他們之間的傳播。 / 先前，學校停課對減低2009年H1N1流感大流行在香港的傳播已被Wu et. al (2010a)進行了調查。透過使用一個具年齡結構的SIR模型(age-structured SIR model)來分析收集至8月27日的監測數據，該硏究表示流感大流行的傳播在暑假開始時減低了25%。在這研究中，我應用了Wu et. al (2010a)的方法來分析整個監測期間所收集的數據。在發現到該數學模型不能準確地擬合附加的監測數據後，我在該模型添加了兩個傳播特徵(當中包含兒童和成人之間的傳染在學校停課期間增加)去更準確地代表現實中的疫情。我的硏究顯示，學校停課雖然降低了兒童的感染率，但卻增加了成年人的感染率，令整體傳播在暑假開始時只減低了7.6%。這硏究結果表示，在將來的流感大流行中，封閉學校不大可能延遲流感大流行疫情至一個可令疫苗產生作用的程度，而且封閉學校可能會增加成人的感染率，從而有可能導致社會運作出現更混亂的情況。 / School closure is often included in national pandemic influenza response plans as a community mitigation measure and it was widely applied in Pandemic (H1N1) 2009. However, the appropriateness of this intervention is often questioned, as school closure causes major disruption to the education system and past epidemiological studies reveal this intervention is not necessarily effective. The present thesis evaluates the effect of school closure in mitigating transmission of Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 in Hong Kong in the initial 5 months of the pandemic. / In Hong Kong, following identification of the pandemic virus in US in April 2009, the government implemented containment phase measures and began surveillance on the pandemic. The Centre for Health Protection established a reporting criteria for doctors to report suspected cases of pandemic infection for laboratory confirmation, and the source of infection of confirmed cases was traced to determine if the pandemic was spreading locally. When local transmission of the pandemic began in June, the government began mitigation phase measures, in which patients with influenza-like- illness seeking treatment at designated flu clinics and public hospital emergency departments were tested for pandemic infection, and school closure was implemented for pandemic mitigation. The school closure policy lasted until summer holiday commenced in July, and was revised and continued in September when the new school season started. At the end of September, in view of pandemic surveillance was no longer useful, laboratory testing for suspected pandemic cases was halted. Patient demographic data collected from confirmed pandemic cases, together with temporal changes in school session induced by school closure and summer holiday, provided an ideal opportunity for investigation. / From May through September 2009, a total of 27,687 pandemic cases were confirmed, in which the age and confirmation date were recorded in all cases, and 88% provided a locatable residential address. To visualise the mitigative effect of school closure, 5 socio-economic age classes (which include primary and secondary school-aged children) were defined, and age-class-and-district-specific epidemic curves were constructed. All epidemic curves rose steadily after local transmission began in June, and an unusual upsurge in the epidemic curve of primary and secondary school-aged children is observed when schools resumed session in September, suggesting school session facilitated transmission amongst them. / Previously, the effect of school closure in mitigating Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 transmission in Hong Kong was investigated in Wu et al. (2010a). By analysing surveillance data collected as of 27 August with an age-structured susceptible- infectious-recovered (SIR) model, the study reported transmission was reduced by 25% when summer holiday commenced. In this study, I adapted the methodology in Wu et al. (2010a) to analyse data collected in the entire surveillance period. Upon observing the model fitted poorly to the additional data, I added 2 transmission features to the model (which include increased transmission between children and adults during school closure) to better represent the epidemic in reality. My analysis revealed that while school closure reduced incidence in children, it increased incidence in adults, leading to a reduction in overall transmission by only 7.6% when summer holiday started. The findings of this study suggest that school closure in a future influenza pandemic is unlikely to be able to delay the pandemic for vaccine to arrive in time, and that implementing this intervention may increase incidence in adults, which may lead to causing more disruption on the functioning of society. / Detailed summary in vernacular field only. / Detailed summary in vernacular field only. / Detailed summary in vernacular field only. / Detailed summary in vernacular field only. / Chau, Kwan Long. / Thesis (M.Phil.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 2012. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 148-154). / Abstracts also in Chinese. / Chapter Chapter 1 --- Introduction --- p.1 / Chapter 1.1 --- Influenza --- p.2 / Chapter 1.2 --- Public health response to pandemic influenza & School closure --- p.8 / Chapter 1.3 --- Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 --- p.13 / Chapter 1.4 --- Hong Kongs response to Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 --- p.17 / Chapter 1.5 --- Data and Research Objective --- p.24 / Chapter Chapter 2 --- Descriptive and Exploratory Analysis of Surveillance Data --- p.31 / Chapter 2.1 --- Introduction --- p.31 / Chapter 2.2 --- Methodology --- p.36 / Chapter 2.3 --- Results --- p.40 / Chapter 2.4 --- Discussion --- p.57 / Chapter Chapter 3 --- Evaluating the effect of School Closure by Modelling --- p.62 / Chapter 3.1 --- Introduction --- p.62 / Chapter 3.2 --- Methodology --- p.90 / Chapter 3.3 --- Results --- p.98 / Chapter 3.4 --- Discussion --- p.105 / Chapter Chapter 4 --- Discussion --- p.108 / Chapter 4.1 --- Study Findings --- p.108 / Chapter 4.2 --- Study Limitations --- p.109 / Chapter 4.3 --- Comments on using school closure in future influenza pandemics --- p.111 / Appendices --- p.116 / Bibliography --- p.148