published_or_final_version / Civil Engineering / Doctoral / Doctor of Philosophy

Public Private Partnership (PPP) procurement has developed in many countries, as an effective way for governments to allay their financial burden and/or improve the efficiencies of public services. However, PPP has also experienced many ups and downs in its applications. As a collaborative venture between public and private sectors, the quality of the relationship between them has been shown to be a key contributor to the success of a PPP project. However, no study has, as yet, conceptualized and tested an integrative framework for modeling and addressing the relational aspect in PPP projects. This study aims to fill this gap. Moreover, the revamping of PPP in the above direction, would align with what is found to be a much larger trend, in moving from traditional management to relationship approaches in project management in general and on built infrastructure projects in particular. The general purpose of this study is to make an original contribution to relationship research in PPP, by addressing the importance of this intangible side of PPP, through developing a strategic relationship management framework for parties engaged in PPP projects. Having examined relational research in joint ventures, alliancing and inter-organisational collaboration, it is found that game theory, transaction cost analysis and relational contracting have a direct bearing on inter-organisational relationships in infrastructure projects. Consequently, they are adopted as the theoretical foundations for this research. This study first investigates the ‘hard side’ of PPP relationships, analyzing their variables based on semi-structured interviews with PPP experts. Further, the ‘soft side’ of PPP relationships, is found to be influenced mainly by inter-organisational trust and commitment. This is also investigated in this research by intensive literature review of inter-organisational relationships. A relational variables and indicators model for PPP projects is then developed. Quantitative research data was collected from two questionnaire surveys, targeting international experiences. The first survey was aimed to examine the intensifying and/or moderating effects of various relational variables. The second survey was designed to identify the Critical Success Factors of relationship management in PPP context. Qualitative research data was consolidated from a case study and follow-up structured interviews. Findings from surveys, case study and interviews were then triangulated to develop a strategic framework for better relationship management for infrastructure PPP projects. The findings from this research make a specific contribution to relationship management research; while the ‘hard’ and ‘soft’ sides provide lenses for both PPP parties to examine their relationship with their respective partners. The proposed strategic framework consists of a Relationship Management Scheme and Guidelines to be implemented in different PPP phases, through addressing the sustainability of the relationship. It provides an initial scheme or base approach for project parties to manage the relationships proactively rather than reactively. Besides, this research also helps to identify relevant relational components that can be incorporated or directly used in criteria for pre-tender selection. Such screening and special attention to these critical components can also help to develop more sustainable relationships and attain better value for money through PPP procurement in practice. / published_or_final_version / Civil Engineering / Doctoral / Doctor of Philosophy

With a desire to increase the chance of success of major infrastructure and construction (MIC) projects, it is increasingly common to invite the public participating in the planning and design processes. Public participation requires the involvement of individuals and groups who are positively or negatively affected by a proposed intervention (e.g. a project, a program, a plan, a policy). An effective public participation program can be beneficial to the parties involved (i.e. the decision makers and general public) in many ways. As a result, a number of participatory approaches have been developed by various sectors to drive the process of agenda-setting, decision-making, and policy-forming. Many research studies focusing on various aspects of participation in policy-making in general have been conducted, but few have looked into its application in the construction and infrastructure industry in particular. On the other hand, the decision making process of contemporary MIC projects is becoming ever more complicated especially with the increasing number of stakeholders involved and their growing tendency to defend their own interests. Failing to address and meet the concerns and expectations of stakeholders may result in project failures. To avoid this necessitates a systematic participatory approach to facilitate the decision making and evaluation. This research, therefore, aims to develop a multi-stakeholder multi-objective decision making and evaluation model to help resulting in consensus and increasing the satisfaction among various stakeholders (or stakeholder groups) in MIC projects. In this research, an extensive literature review was first carried out to examine the salient elements of public participation in MIC projects and to identify the barriers to effective public participation in project decision making in different countries (e.g. Australia, Canada, United Kingdom, United States, South Africa, etc.). China being a developing country was selected for in-depth case study analysis. Through a series of interviews, the underlying reasons for ineffective participatory practice in China were revealed. A questionnaire survey was then conducted to unveil those stakeholder concerns pertinent to MIC projects at the conceptual stages through the degree of consensus and/or conflict involved. Finally, a multi-stakeholder multi-objective decision model and a multi-factor hierarchical comprehensive evaluation model were developed. These two models were founded on the decision rule approach and the fuzzy techniques respectively. Another round of interview was conducted to investigate the (i) influence of different stakeholder groups in making decisions related to MIC projects during their conceptual stages; and (ii) relationship between the satisfaction of a single stakeholder group and that of the stakeholders overall. The application of the two models was demonstrated by two cases in Hong Kong and their validity was confirmed through validation interviews. The results indicated that the two models are objective, reliable and practical enough to cope with real world problems. The research findings are therefore valuable to the government and construction industry at large for successful implementation of public participation in MIC schemes locally and internationally in future, especially when the construction industry is becoming increasingly globalized and the trend of cultural integration between the East and West is ever growing. / published_or_final_version / Civil Engineering / Doctoral / Doctor of Philosophy

Post-disaster reconstruction, critical in restoring the affected community, provides new opportunities to redevelop the disaster affected region for economic growth, future vulnerability reduction and sustainable development as well. However, previous studies reveal that these opportunities have not been fully exploited. Many reconstruction projects have performed poorly due to various political, administrational, social, and policy/regulation-related reasons. To address the spotlighted gaps in post-disaster reconstruction, Public-Private-People Partnership (4P) is proposed and developed to procure more sustainable public infrastructure and to improve the overall performance of disaster management (DM) through integrating preparedness and mitigation into reconstruction processes. Public- Private Partnerships (PPP), which have demonstrated superior performance compared to the traditional approach in many infrastructure projects, are the practical and theoretical foundation of the proposed 4P. The integrated 4th P-‘people’ refers to major stakeholders who play critical roles in reconstruction, namely Non-Governmental Organizations (NGOs), local communities, academia, professional groups and media. A 4P framework, comprising of a procurement framework and a partnership framework, was developed based on the consolidated findings from a literature review and empirical data. The procurement framework provides a three-stage procurement process to deliver a typical 4P project, including planning for post-disaster reconstruction procurement, establishing framework agreement and 4P delivery. Through pre-disaster arrangements formally linking potential participants in advance, it enables targeted 4Ps to mobilize faster, while being more efficient and sustainable. The partnership framework provides the corner-stone of establishing sustainable and successful relationships among multiple participants, to ensure smooth execution of 4P projects. Developed on significant findings from previous research on partnerships/relationship management in the construction industry, it describes the partnership structure, role of each major participant and institutional and relational strategies to improve the partnership/relationship. A comprehensive research design enabled collection of the data required to achieve each objective of this research project. The first-round semi-structured interviews were conducted to mainly investigate the feasibility of applying PPP in reconstruction and integrating ‘people’ into PPP, so as to narrow down the potential scope of the proposed 4P. Findings from the first-round interviews, current practice and pitfalls in the DM cycle especially in reconstruction were examined in the subsequent two parallel sets of questionnaire surveys targeting DM and PPP professionals. The results derived from 14 first-round interviews and 81 responses received in the questionnaires clearly suggest that 4P has great potential to deliver better performance in reconstruction projects of certain types. Nine second-round interviews helped to test and improve the established preliminary 4P framework. In addition, to further probe into the role of ‘people’, case studies of ‘Project Mingde’, which comprises of three construction projects including a Sichuan reconstruction project, were implemented. The proposed 4P framework, developed based on the above research, was validated through a focus group meeting. It is concluded that the 4P approach could help realize better performance and sustainable redevelopment in appropriate reconstruction scenarios, as well as contribute to improving the overall DM. The 4P framework also provides a basic methodology and conceptual foundation to procure 4P projects in industry with pointers for future development in academic research. / published_or_final_version / Civil Engineering / Master / Master of Philosophy

The need for programme management to align, coordinate and manage a portfolio of construction projects to deliver benefits that would not be achievable if the projects were managed independently in a turbulent economic environment, limitations of project management, and increasing stakeholder expectations cannot be over emphasised. In the construction industry, the implementation of programme management has been bedevilled with major challenges of which the North West Department of Public Works (DPW) CAPEX programme is no exception. The CAPEX programme has been noted for delivering fewer infrastructure projects as planned in terms of budget, time, and other expectations. The research documented in this treatise thus examined the existing programme management approach of the North West DPW CAPEX programme with respect to generally accepted standards and practices. A mixed research approach was used to identify problems such as delays in payment of works, poor reporting standards, improper planning of works, procurement difficulties, and inadequate management structures. The results point to excessive bureaucratic processes, improper information management systems and lack of commitment and ownership towards government works as the major underlying causes of the programme predicaments. Dogmatic implementation of government’s black economic empowerment policies and inadequate in-house capacity were also contributing factors. The research findings imply that effective processes should be laid for prompt payment of works certificates and invoices. Improved reporting standards and proper planning of the programme as a whole and its constituent projects is necessary for the attainment of stipulated goals. In particular, it is crucial to ensure that adequate management considerations in terms of capacity, infrastructure, structures and expertise are put in place while the procurement processes should be continually reviewed for programme success purposes.

My dissertation is a study of the conditions under which state-owned enterprises improve infrastructure services--transport, energy, and water--particularly in developing countries. This research is relevant because, despite successful privatization of infrastructure that yielded over trillion and a half dollars in investments since 1990, infrastructure provision remains dominated by state-owned enterprises (Estache & Fay, 2007; Gomez-Ibanez, 2003). The OECD estimates that over the next two decades, US $35 to 40 trillion will be required to meet the global infrastructure deficit. At least half of this investment will be made by governments, particularly in, but not limited to, developing countries (OECD, 2007). In contrast to conventional wisdom, my research identifies mechanisms for reforming public infrastructure utilities through a new recipe for an inclusive reform framework that, unlike the textbook approach, jointly optimizes equity and efficiency without privatization. This dissertation contrasts the world's largest public utility, the Indian Railways, with the ideal-type textbook privatization, illustrated with the case of the British Railways' privatization. I focus on the Indian Railways as a paradigmatic example of how to reform infrastructure-providing state-owned enterprises while balancing equity with efficiency concerns. I analyze primary data gathered through 100 in-depth interviews and on-site observations. The fieldwork was conducted over a period of two years, including half a year at the Office of the Minister for Indian Railways. In addition, I utilize secondary data through archival review of policy documents and analyze fifty years of the Railways' statistics. My dissertation shows how the Indian Railways was transformed, between 2005-2008, counter intuitively, without privatization, retrenchment, or fare-hikes for poor passengers, under the leadership of a populist politician, the then Minister of Railways. I explain how the Railways' was rescued from near bankruptcy in 2001 to realize US $6 billion annual surplus in 2008. An essential element of the Indian Railway's complex strategy was to leverage existing assets by operating faster, longer, and heavier trains on the supply-side, as opposed to investing in asset accumulation. On the demand-side, the Railways shed a monopoly mind-set in favor of customer centric, dynamic, and differential pricing and service provision. Based on the positive case of Indian Railways, I derive an equitable alternative to infrastructure reform: A tripartite inclusive reform framework--diagnostic, invention, and agency. First, crafting space for reform by diagnosis and navigation of conflicting and competing interest groups to isolate apolitical variables that jointly increase efficiency and equity outcomes. Second, reinventing reforms by focusing on all manipulable variables for supply optimization and demand responsiveness, because profit in public utilities is a function of several manipulable variables, not only fares and wages. Third, agency, through radical incrementalism, an approach to minimize the risk of catastrophic errors, and yet yield rapid transformations.

Infrastructure systems around the world face immediate crises and smoldering long-term challenges. Consequently, system owners and managers must balance the need to repair and replace the aging and deteriorating systems already in place against the need for transformative investments in deep decarbonization, climate adaptation, and transportation that will enable long-term competitiveness. Complicating these decisions are deep uncertainties, finite resources, and competing objectives. These challenges motivate the integration of “hard” investments in physical infrastructure with “soft” instruments like insurance, land use policy, and ecosystem restoration that can improve service, shrink costs, scale up or down as future needs require, and reduce vulnerability to population loss and economic contraction. A critical advantage of soft instruments is that they enable planners to adjust, expand, or reduce them at regular intervals, unlike hard instruments which are difficult to modify once in place. As a result, soft instruments can be precisely tailored to meet near-term needs and conditions, including projections of the quasi-oscillatory, regime-like climate processes that dominate seasonal to decadal hydro-climate variability, thereby reducing the need to guess the needs and hazards of the distant future. The objective of this dissertation is to demonstrate how potentially predictable modes of structured climate variability can inform the design of soft instruments and the formulation of adaptive infrastructure system plans. Using climate information for sequential adaptation requires developing credible projections of climate variables at relevant time scales. PartI considers the drivers of river floods in large river basins, which is used throughout this dissertation as an example of a high-impact hydroclimate extreme. First, chapter 2 opens by exploring the strengths and limitations of existing methodologies, and by developing a statistical-dynamical causal chain framework within which to consider flood risk on interannual to secular time scales. Next, chapter 3 describes the physical mechanisms responsible for heavy rainfall (90th percentile exceedance)and flooding in the Lower Paraguay River Basin (LPRB), focusing on a November-February(NDJF) 2015-16 flood event that displaced over 170 000 people. This chapter shows that: 1. persistent large-scale conditions over the South American continent during NDJF 2015-16 strengthened the South American Low-Level Jet (SALLJ), bringing warm air and moisture to South East South America (SESA), and steered the jet towards the LPRB, leading to repeated heavy rainfall events and large-scale flooding; 2. while the observed El Niño event contributed to a stronger SALLJ, the Madden-JulienOscillation (MJO) and Atlantic ocean steered the jet over the LPRB; and 3. while numerical sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) and seasonal models projected an elevated risk of flooding consistent with the observed El Niño event, they had limited skill at lead times greater than two weeks, suggesting that improved representation of MJO and Atlantic teleconnections could improve regional forecast skill. Finally, chapter 4 shows how mechanistic understanding of the physical causal chain that leads to a particular hazard of interest – in this case heavy rainfall over a large area in the Ohio River Basin (ORB) – can inform future risks. Taking the GFDL coupled model, version 3 (CM3) as a representative general circulation model (GCM), this chapter shows that 1. the GCM simulates too many regional extreme precipitation (REP) events but under-simulates the occurrence of back to back REP days; 2. REP days show consistent large-scale climate anomalies leading up to the event; 3. indices describing these large-scale anomalies are well simulated by the GCM; and 4. a statistical model describing this causal chain and exploiting simulated large-scale in-dices from the GCM can be used to inform the future occurrence of REP days. Even the best climate projections must confront epistemic uncertainties. Part II of this dissertation explores how intrinsically flawed projections should inform sequential adaptation.First, chapter5reviews approaches for planning under uncertainty, considering the role of classical decision theory, optimization, probability, and non probabilistic approaches. Next, chapter 6 considers how different physical mechanisms impart predictability at different timescales and the implications of secular, low-frequency cyclical, and high-frequency cyclical variability for selection between instruments with long and short planning periods. In particular, this chapter builds from three assertions regarding the nature of climate risk: 1. different climate risk mitigation instruments have different project lifespans; 2. climate risk varies on many scales; and 3. the processes which dominate this risk over the planning period depend on the planning period itself. Defining M as the nominal design life of a structural or financial instrument and N as the length of the observational record (a proxy for total informational uncertainty), chapter 7 presents a series of stylized computational experiments to probe the implications of these premises. Key findings are that: 1. quasi-periodic and secular climate signals, with different identifiability and predictability, control future uncertainty and risk; 2. adaptation strategies need to consider how uncertainties in risk projections influence the success of decision pathways; and 3. stylized experiments reveal how bias and variance of climate risk projections influencerisk mitigation over a finite planning period. Chapter 7 elaborates these findings through a didactic case study of levee heightening in the Netherlands. Integrating a conceptual model of low-frequency variability with credible projections of sea level rise, chapter 7 uses dynamic programming to co-optimize hard (levee increase) and soft (insurance) instruments. Key findings are that 1. large but distant and uncertain changes (e.g., sea level rise) do not necessarily motivate immediate investment in structural risk protection; 2. soft adaptation strategies are robust to different model structures and assumptions while hard instruments perform poorly under conditions for which they were not de-signed; and 3. increasing the hypothetical predictability of near-term climate extremes significantly lowers long-term adaptation costs. Finally, part III seeks to unpack the conceptual experiments of parts I and II to inform policy and future research. Chapter 8 describes how constructive narratives about climate change can discourage climate fatalism. Instead, chapter 8 emphasizes that while climate change is and will be a critical stressor of infrastructure systems, individuals, communities, and regions have agency and can mitigate its consequences. Finally, chapter9concludes by discussing the key findings of this dissertation and exploring how future work on decision under uncertainty, technology, and earth systems science can aid the design and management of effective infrastructure services.