Water-induced soil erosion and shallow landslides interact with each other and need to be studied in an integrated approach to understand hillslope sediment yields. The principal aim of this thesis was to study and model soil erosion and shallow landslides in an integrated way. The thesis presents results from laboratory and catchment-scale studies and modelling. A laboratory flume under a rainfall simulator was used for shallow landslide and soil erosion experiments using sandy and silty loess soils. In the experiments, landslide initiation, retrogressions and slip surface depths were measured and monitored directly or by using video camera recordings. Sediment and runoff were collected from the flume outlet every minute during landslides and every 10 minutes before and after landslides. Changes in the soil slope, after landslides, were recorded. Initially, six experiments including two repetitions were conducted using sandy soils at a 30º and 10º compound slope configuration, but with different soil profile depths. The experimental results showed that total and landslide-driven sediment yields were affected by the original soil profile depth; the greater the depth, the higher the sediment yield. Later, twelve other experiments were conducted on different slopes using silty loess soils. The experimental observations were used to validate an integrated modelling approach which includes WEPP for runoff and soil erosion modelling, a slope stability model for simulating shallow landslides, and a simple soil redistribution model for runout distance prediction. The model predictions were in good alignment with the observations. In all (sandy and silty loess) experiments, peak sediment discharges were related to the landslide events, proximity to the outlet and landslide volume. The post-failure soil erosion rate decreased as a function of changes in the slope profile. The GeoWEPP-SLIP modelling approach was proposed for catchment-scale modelling. The approach simulates soil erosion using the Hillslope and Flowpath methods in WEPP, predicts shallow landslides using a slope stability model coupled with the WEPP’s hillslope hydrology and finally uses a simple rule-based soil redistribution model to predict runout distance and post-failure topography. A case study application of the model to the Bowenvale research catchment (300 ha) showed that the model predictions were in good agreement with the observed values. However, the Hillslope method over-predicted the outlet sediment yield due to the computational weighting involved in the method. The Hillslope method predicted consistent values of sediment yield and soil erosion regardless to the changes in topography and land-cover in the post-failure scenarios. The Flowpath method, on the other hand, predicted higher values of sediment yield in the post-failure vegetation removal scenario. The effects of DEM resolution on the approach were evaluated using four different resolutions. Statistical analyses for all methods and resolutions were performed by comparing the predicted versus measured runoff and sediment yield from the catchment outlet and the spatial distribution of shallow landslides. Results showed that changes in resolution did not significantly alter the sediment yield and runoff between the pre- and post-failure scenarios at the catchment outlet using the Hillslope method. However, the Flowpath method predicted higher hillslope sediment yields at a coarser resolution level. Similarly, larger landslide areas and volumes were predicted for coarser resolutions whereas deposition volume decreased with the increase in grid-cell size due to changes in slope and flowpath distributions. The research conducted in the laboratory and catchment presented in this thesis helped understand the interactions between shallow landslides and soil erosion in an integrated approach.

No description available.

Optimizing supply chain is the most successful key for manufacturing systems to be competitive. Supply chain (SC) has gotten intensive research works at all levels: strategic, tactical, and operational levels. These levels, in some researches, have integrated with each other or integrated with other planning issues such as inventory. Optimizing inventory location and level of safety stock at all supply chain partners is essential in high competitive markets to manage uncertain demand and service level. Many works have been developed to optimize the location of safety stock along supply chain, which is important for fast response to fluctuation in demand. However, most of these studies focus on the design stage of a supply chain. Because demand at different horizon times may vary according to different reasons such as the entry of different competitors on market or seasonal demand, safety stock should be optimized accordingly. At the planning (tactical) level, safety stock can be controlled according to each planning horizon to satisfy customer demand at lower cost instead of being fixed by a decision taken at the strategic level. On the other hand, most studies that consider safety stock optimization are tied to a specific system structure such as serial, assembly, or distribution structure. This research focuses on formulating two different models. First, a multi- echelon safety stock optimization (MESSO) model for general supply chain topology is formulated. Then, it is converted into a robust form (RMESSO) which considers all possible fluctuation in demand and gives a solution that is valid under any circumstances. Second, the safety stock optimization model is integrated with tactical supply chain planning (SCP) for manufacturing systems. The integrated model is a multi-objective mixed integer non-linear programming (MINLP) model. This model aims to minimize the total cost and total time. A case study for each model is provided and the numerical results are analyzed.

This thesis presents a novel policy assessment tool that serves as a decision support framework for analysis of energy policy problems involving multilevel, multidimensional and multi-stakeholder complexity. This new approach, The Energy Policy Assessment Technique (E-PAT), integrates System Dynamics Simulation and Multi-Criteria Evaluation models into a unified assessment framework. The E-PAT doubles as a systems-thinking model and a multi-criteria evaluation archetype. The E-PAT is designed for assessing policy issues, particularly those relating to energy planning in a national context. It is a suitable tool for evaluation and selection of optimal policies from competing and conflicting alternatives. To test its robustness and practical application, a case study on energy policy evaluation in Nigeria is carried out with this tool. A model of the Nigerian energy economy was constructed, and three proposed government policies for Sustainable Energy Development were evaluated relative to a Business-As-Usual case. The evaluation process identified ‘best’ policy options according to stakeholder viewpoints. The original contribution of this research is the creation of an integrated, transparent and comprehensive assessment tool, and the development of measurable Energy Sustainability Indicators (ESI), to aid policymakers in diverse policy analysis. The new tool is intended to support assessment of energy policies in relation to impacts on the economy, society and environment.

Optimizing supply chain is the most successful key for manufacturing systems to be competitive. Supply chain (SC) has gotten intensive research works at all levels: strategic, tactical, and operational levels. These levels, in some researches, have integrated with each other or integrated with other planning issues such as inventory. Optimizing inventory location and level of safety stock at all supply chain partners is essential in high competitive markets to manage uncertain demand and service level. Many works have been developed to optimize the location of safety stock along supply chain, which is important for fast response to fluctuation in demand. However, most of these studies focus on the design stage of a supply chain. Because demand at different horizon times may vary according to different reasons such as the entry of different competitors on market or seasonal demand, safety stock should be optimized accordingly. At the planning (tactical) level, safety stock can be controlled according to each planning horizon to satisfy customer demand at lower cost instead of being fixed by a decision taken at the strategic level. On the other hand, most studies that consider safety stock optimization are tied to a specific system structure such as serial, assembly, or distribution structure. This research focuses on formulating two different models. First, a multi- echelon safety stock optimization (MESSO) model for general supply chain topology is formulated. Then, it is converted into a robust form (RMESSO) which considers all possible fluctuation in demand and gives a solution that is valid under any circumstances. Second, the safety stock optimization model is integrated with tactical supply chain planning (SCP) for manufacturing systems. The integrated model is a multi-objective mixed integer non-linear programming (MINLP) model. This model aims to minimize the total cost and total time. A case study for each model is provided and the numerical results are analyzed.

<div>International development projects are a massive business, with billions invested annually in the Global South. However, such projects have an unacceptably long record of high failure rates. The problem perpetuates, in part, due to the success factors by which international development projects are judged. Often, projects are assessed on the basis of donor-identified priorities that are not aligned with local impacts. One such international development project involves the construction of small-scale water harvesting structures known as sand dams. Non-governmental organizations (NGOs) continue to raise sufficient funds to build thousands of sand dams across sub-Saharan Africa, and yet 50% of sand dams are estimated to be non-functioning.</div><div><br></div><div>Sand dams are small, reinforced concrete dams built across an impermeable stream-bed. Over time, sand settles behind the dam, creating an upstream sand reservoir that fills with rainwater and surface runoff. The sand helps filter the water, protects it from evapotranspiration, and can provide water to the local community for domestic and agricultural use during the dry season. Sand dams often fail due to poor construction, inadequate siting, and siltation.</div><div><br></div><div>This dissertation explores methodologies for studying the regional and local impacts of sand dams and investigates the feasibility of developing model-based site selection guidelines for sand dams. Three objectives of this study are: (1) to develop a methodology to assess the ability of sand dams in improving the overall water availability in the region; (2) to examine claims made by non-scientific bodies about sand dam impacts by investigating how diverse sand dams influence macroinvertebrate habitat, vegetation, erosion, and local water availability; and (3) to create guidelines for siting new sand dams based on a fully integrated surface and groundwater flow model.</div><div><br></div><div>For the first objective, two multiple regression models are developed to compare (1) water storage and (2) vegetation in an area with a high density of sand dams, termed the sand dam counties (SDC), to those in a control area. The models analyze remotely sensed datasets to assess whether evidence exists of significantly increased storage in the SDC relative to the control area. The results show that the remotely sensed water storage data is unable to consistently detect higher levels of water storage in the SDC. This is likely due to the low resolution of the dataset combined with the small magnitude of sand dams' impact on regional water storage. The results of the vegetation model show that the sand dams have a consistent, positive impact on vegetation within the SDC relative to the control area. Because vegetation health and cover is often correlated with groundwater levels, these results likely indicate that the sand dams are also increasing local groundwater levels. Overall, this study shows that remotely sensed dataset can provide a useful basis to assess the impact of international development projects, particularly those that involve the natural environment. </div><div><br></div><div>For the second objective, data relating to macroinvertebrates, vegetation, erosion, and water table elevations at three sand dams were collected and analyzed during a year-long field study in Tanzania. These study subjects were specifically selected to test an NGO claim that sand dams revitalize the entire ecosystem. The results of this study show that sand dams are not a suitable habitat for macroinvertebrates due to their homogeneity. The impact of sand dams on vegetation cover can be significant, but may be limited by the slope of the surrounding land. Functioning sand dams likely have little impact on streambank erosion, but non-functioning sand dams may contribute to the erosion of streambanks in unstable reaches. Lastly, the water table is locally raised by recharge from sand dams, however, the spatial and temporal extent of the impact is more limited than conveyed by NGOs and previous studies. This study adds to the limited body of knowledge on the environmental responses to sand dams and demonstrates the importance of examining the local impacts of individual international development projects. </div><div><br></div><div>For the third objective, results from four different simulations of a watershed-based model with three cascading sand dams are analyzed to identify overland features that improve vadose zone storage and groundwater recharge and reduce evapotranspiration. Results from this study show that sand dams constructed in a low-lying area that collects surface runoff from adjacent steep slopes, such as in a U-shaped valley, will likely collect and store sufficient water for use by a local community. Watersheds with relatively more area cultivated with low-water-need crops will similarly be beneficial to sand dam performance. In addition, the analysis revealed that the volume of water a sand dam receives during a rainy season is less important for water storage than the duration of dry seasons. Lastly, the simulations showed that sand dams constructed in an area with sandier soils will perform better than those in an area with loamy soils. This study produced a set of guidelines that can be used to identify locations where sand dams are likely to capture and store sufficient water for community use during the dry season.</div>

No description available.

Die Modellierung aller auf der gesamten Einzugsgebietsebene relevanten Abflussbil-dungsprozesse ist unter aktuellen Fragestellungen unumgänglich. Ziel dieser Arbeit ist die quantitative Analyse und Abbildung der Wechselwirkungen zwischen Oberflächen- und Grundwasser mit Hilfe von gekoppelten Modellen, die vor allem bei der Simulation von Wassermangelsituationen eine wesentliche Rolle spielen. Dazu wurden die notwendigerweise zu berücksichtigenden Prozesse und die Anforderungen seitens der Modellierung diskutiert. Es wurde herausgestellt, dass Rückkopplungen und Wechselwirkungen einerseits zwischen Grund- und Oberflächengewässer, andererseits zwischen Grund- und Bodenwasser unter Einbeziehung der saisonal wechselnden Vegetationswirkung im Modell berücksichtigt werden müssen. Aus einer großen Modellvielzahl wurde das Modellierungssystem ArcEGMO-PSCN-ASM als geeignet ausgewählt und für diese Fragestellung weiterentwickelt. Die Interaktionen zwischen Oberflächen- und Grundwasser wurden anhand verschiedener Modellsimulationen analysiert. Der Austausch zwischen Fließgewässer und Grundwasser, sowie die Rückwirkung der Grundwasserstände auf das Oberflächenwasser zeigte den größten Einfluss auf die Modellergebnisse. Die Wasserstandsdynamik in den Fließgewässern und der Kapillaraufstieg zeigten nur lokale Effekte. Die Praxistauglichkeit des gekoppelten Modells wurde in zwei Fallbeispielen getestet, die sich mit verschiedenen Lösungen zur Bekämpfung von Wassermangelsituationen beschäftigen. Die Ergebnisse der Simulationen zeigen deutlich, dass mit Hilfe des gekoppelten Modells Bewirtschaftungsmaßnahmen im Gewässer selbst sowie im ober- und unterirdischen Einzugsgebiet adäquat abgebildet und quantitative Aussagen mit einer hohen Praxisrelevanz gewonnen werden können. Diese Arbeit leistet damit sowohl einen wissenschaftlichen Beitrag zum Modellverständnis als auch den Nachweis einer praktikablen Modellanwendung in unterschiedlichen Einzugsgebieten. / The modeling of all relevant runoff processes in a catchments area is indispensable considering the actual questions (like Water Framework Directive and climatic change). This investigation aims the quantitative analysis and demonstration of surface- and subsurface water interactions, which are relevant for simulating northeastern German regions with water scarcity, by using coupled models. Therefore processes, which necessarily must be considered, and requirements on the part of the modeling, were discussed. It was exposed / presented that feedbacks and interactions of surface water and subsurface water on one hand and (oder besser: as well as?) groundwater and soil water including seasonal vegetation development on the other hand must be considered in the model. The modeling system ArcEGMO-PSCN-ASM was chosen / selected out of a huge amount of models as appropriate for this task. It was further adopted / developed to this task in co-operation with Dr. Pfützner (BAH-Berlin). The interactions of surface water and groundwater where analyzed by various simula-tions. The exchange between stream water and groundwater as well as the feedback of groundwater levels to surface water had the most influence to the model results. Dynamic stream water levels and capillary rise had only local effects and low impact on the catchments average. The suitability for practical use of this coupled model where tested at two sample areas, with various solutions to deal with water scarcity. The model results illustrate clearly that using coupled models water management treatments as well in the river itself as in surface and subsurface catchment areas can be shown adequately and quantitative statements with a high practice relevance can be achieved. The results of the present study contribute both a scientific contribution to the model understanding and the proof of a practicable application of models in different catchment areas.

Durch die Stilllegung der Kali-Gewinnung und -Produktion zwischen 1990 und 1993 sowie die begonnene Rekultivierung der Kali-Rückstandshalden haben sich die Salzfrachteintragsbedingungen für die Fließgwewässer im "Südharz-Kalirevier" in Thüringen zum Teil deutlich verändert. Aufgrund erheblich geringerer Salzeinträge in die Vorfluter Wipper und Bode ist es möglich geworden, zu einer ökologisch verträglichen Salzfrachtsteuerung überzugehen. Die Komplexität der zugrunde liegenden Stofftransportprozesse im Einzugsgebiet der Wipper macht es jedoch unumgänglich, den Steuerungsvorgang nicht nur durch reine Bilanzierungsvorgänge auf der betrachteten Steuerstrecke zu erfassen (so wie bisher praktiziert), sondern auch die Abflussdynamik im Fließgewässer und den Wasserhaushalt im Gebiet mit einzubeziehen. <br><br> Die Ergebnisse dieser Arbeit dienen zum einen einer Vertiefung der Prozessverständnisse und der Interaktion von Wasserhaushalt, Abflussbildung sowie Stofftransport in bergbaubeeinflussten Einzugsgebieten am Beispiel der Unstrut bzw. ihrer relevanten Nebenflüsse. Zum anderen sollen sie zur Analyse und Bewertung eines Bewirtschaftungsplanes für die genannten Fließgewässer herangezogen werden können. Ziel dieser Arbeit ist die Erstellung eines prognosetauglichen Steuerungsinstrumentes, das für die Bewirtschaftung von Flusseinzugsgebieten unterschiedlicher Größe genutzt und unter den Rahmenbedingungen der bergbaubedingten salinaren Einträge effektiv zur Steuerung der anthropogenen Frachten eingesetzt werden kann. <br><br> Die Quellen der anthropogen eingeleiteten Salzfracht sind vor allem die Rückstandshalden der stillgelegten Kaliwerke. Durch Niederschläge entstehen salzhaltige Haldenabwässer, die zum Teil ungesteuert über oberflächennahe Ausbreitungsvorgänge direkt in die Vorfluter gelangen, ein anderer Teil wird über die Speichereinrichtungen gefasst und gezielt abgestoßen. Durch Undichtigkeiten des Laugenstapelbeckens in Wipperdorf gelangen ebenfalls ungesteuerte Frachteinträge in die Wipper. Ein weiterer Eintragspfad ist zudem die geogene Belastung. <br><br> Mit Hilfe detaillierter Angaben zu den oben genannten Eintragspfaden konnten Modellrechnungen im Zeitraum von 1992 bis 2003 durchgeführt werden. Durch die Ausarbeitung eines neuartigen Steuerungskonzeptes für das Laugenstapelbecken Wipperdorf, war es nun möglich, die gefasste Haldenlauge entsprechend der aktuellen Abflusssituation gezielt abstoßen zu können. Neben der modelltechnischen Erfassung der aktuellen hydrologischen Situation und der Vorgabe eines Chlorid-Konzentrationssteuerzieles für den Pegel Hachelbich, mussten dabei weitere Randbedingungen (Beckenkapazität, Beckenfüllstand, Mindestfüllstand, Kapazität des Ableitungskanals, usw.) berücksichtigt werden. <br><br> Es zeigte sich, dass unter Anwendung des Steuerungskonzeptes die Schwankungsbreite der Chloridkonzentration insgesamt gesehen deutlich verringert werden konnte. Die Überschreitungshäufigkeiten bezüglich eines Grenzwertes von 2 g Chlorid/l am Pegel Hachelbich fielen deutlich, und auch die maximale Dauer einer solchen Periode konnte stark verkürzt werden. Kritische Situationen bei der modelltechnischen Frachtzusteuerung traten nur dann auf, wenn Niedrigwasserverhältnisse durch die Simulationsberechnungen noch unterschätzt wurden. Dies hatte deutliche Überschreitungen der Zielvorgaben für den Pegel Hachelbich zur Folge. <br><br> Mit Hilfe des Steuerungsalgorithmus konnten desweiteren auch Szenarienberechnungen durchgeführt werden, um die Auswirkungen zukünftig zu erwartender Salzfrachten näher spezifizieren zu können. Dabei konnte festgestellt werden, dass Abdichtungsmaßnahmen der Haldenkörper sich direkt positiv auf die Entwicklung der Konzentration in Hachelbich auswirkten. Durch zusätzlich durchgeführte Langzeitszenarien konnte darüber hinaus nachgewiesen werden, dass langfristig eine Grenzwertfestlegung auf 1,5 g Chlorid/l in Hachelbich möglich ist, und die Stapelkapazitäten dazu ausreichend bemessen sind. / As a consequence of general closure and conversion of potash-industries between the years 1990 and 1993 and due to the beginning of recultivation activities on the potash stockpiles the load of dissolved potassium salt of rivers in the "Südharz-Kalirevier" in the German federal state of Thuringia has considerably changed. The extremely decreased salt inputs into the tributaries of Wipper and Bode were accompanied by a change in salt load management towards a system controlled with respect to river ecology. Due to the high complexity of salt transport processes in the Wipper catchment, the existing operation rules cannot comply with the present requirements, so that a comprehensive knowledge of water balance processes and river flow dynamics have to be included in management strategies. <br><br> On the one hand this investigation aims to analyse the processes and the interaction of water balance, runoff generation and solute transport in catchment areas influenced by salt mining activities such as the case in the river Unstrut and its relevant tributaries. On the other hand the results of this study can help to analyse and assess sustainable management plans for the above mentioned river basins. Thus the main objective of this study is to develop an integrated, predictive management tool, that can be applied for catchment areas of different spatial scales and for the effective use of controlled discharge of anthropogenic salt solution taking into account the basic input conditions from salt mining activities. <br><br> The most important sources of anthropogenic salt inputs into the river stream are the salt loads from the potash stockpiles near the disused mines. Due to usual precipitation salt solution leaches from the stockpiles, which partly reaches the river streams uncontrolled by lateral interflow processes. Another part is being gathered in reservoirs and than discharged according to special system operation rules. As well dissolved salt loads comes into the Wipper by leakage processes out of the reservoir in Wipperdorf. Furthermore geogenic input is another important emission pathway. <br><br> With detailed information about these different emission pathways, model simulations were performed within the period from 1992 to 2003. After the technical implementation of a new management strategy for the reservoir in Wipperdorf, now it was possible to push off the stored lye according to the actual runoff situation in the river stream. Beside a fully modell aided description of the whole actual hydrological situtation and provided control values for chloride concentration at the gauging station in Hachelbich, also other boundary conditions had to be considered for this purpose (such as reservoir capacity, actual fill level, minimum fill level, drain capacity etc.). <br><br> It turned out, that the application of the new management strategy led to a clear decreased range in chloride concentration. Frequencies of exceeding a critical value of 2 g chloride/l at gauging station in Hachelbich enormously declined and the maximum duration of such periods could rigorously be shortened. Particluar critical situations in calculating potential lye discharge only occured when measured flow discharge was underestimated through model simulations. In this case control values for the gauging station in Hachelbich could not be achieved. <br><br> With this new management tool scenario simulations were executed to analyse the effects of expected amounts of lye in future. These theoretical studies showed the decreasing trend in chloride concentration if restorations measures at the stockpiles would be continued. Longterm scenario runs also showed, that a threshold value of 1,5 g chloride/l in Hachelbich could be achieved and existing storage capacities therefor will be sufficiently dimensioned.

The San Joaquin Valley is part of the Great Central Valley of California, a major agricultural centre and food supplier for the United States. This area has significant water management concerns given the very high water demand for an increasing state population and for intense irrigation in a hot, temperate to semi-arid climate where the overall rate of evapotranspiration (ET) is high, and the overall rate of precipitation is low. Irrigation heavily relies upon groundwater and surface water extractions. Through the historical and current concerns of regional water resources reliability, land surface subsidence, water quality issues, and the health of ecosystems, a need for regional-scale water resource management and planning has developed. The physically-based surface-subsurface HydroGeoSphere (HGS) model is used to examine the regional-scale hydrologic budget of a large portion of the San Joaquin Valley. The objective of this investigation is to develop a steady-state groundwater-surface water model of the San Joaquin Valley representative of predevelopment hydrologic conditions. The groundwater-surface water system has undergone drastic changes since the employment of groundwater and surface water extractions for irrigation and mining, and is still responding to past and present stresses. The only certain stable initial condition must therefore be that of the natural system. The model input parameters were constrained by all relevant available hydrologic data. The model was not calibrated to subsurface hydraulic heads or river flows. However, the model does provide a fair match between simulated and actual estimated water table elevations. Historic river flow estimates were not used to calibrate the model, because data consistent with that collected by Hall (1886) and representative of the natural system were not available. For this investigation, water enters through precipitation and the inflow of major rivers only. The subsurface domain is bounded by no-flow boundaries, and groundwater is therefore only able to exit the subsurface through discharge to surface water features or through ET. Surface water is only able to exit the model through discharge via the San Joaquin River and through ET. Average river inflows circa 1878 to 1884 documented by Hall (1886) were applied where the rivers enter into the valley. The spatially variable average rate of precipitation (years 1971 to 2000) from a PRISM dataset was applied to the top of the model. The spatially variable long term average potential ET rates from the California Department of Water Resources (DWR) et al. (1999) were applied to the top of the model. Averaged overland flow parameters and vegetation factors needed to calculate actual ET were specified at the top of the model based on literature values and the 1874 spatial distribution of natural vegetation provided by California State University at Chico et al. (2003). Hydrogeological data including hydraulic conductivities, porosities, specific storage, and unsaturated zone properties are based on literature values from other relevant studies. The resulting steady state model is therefore characterized by historical long term average data assumed to be representative (as close as possible) of the flow system circa 1848. Results indicate that the natural hydrologic setting of the San Joaquin Valley is a complex one. Complex hydrologic processes, including significant groundwater-surface water interaction along the major rivers and within wetland areas formed by flooded surface water, as well as ET and impacted root zone processes were identified in the model domain. Identification and simulation of the complex recharge and discharge relationships in the model domain sheds insight into the hydrologic nature of some historic natural wetlands. Evapotranspiration is a very significant sink of both surface water and groundwater (44.8 % of the water balance input), and has a major impact on hydrologic processes in the root zone. The presence and path of the major rivers in the domain are well defined in the model output and agree well with their actual locations. The model simulates gaining and losing reaches of the major rivers, replicating the historic recharge-discharge relationship documented by others. The general location, formation, and hydrologic processes of some significant wetlands simulated by the model have a fair agreement with historical records. As mentioned above, there is also a fair match between simulated and actual estimated water table elevations. Successful simulation of the complex hydrologic processes and features that characterize the predevelopment hydrologic conditions of the San Joaquin Valley and that resolve the water balance of the natural system underscores the importance and necessity of using an integrated model. This steady state model should serve as a reasonable initial condition for future transient runs that bring the model up to current hydrologic conditions capable of estimating present and future water budgets.