The study examines the effect of oil price changes on selected economic indicators in South Africa. A VAR-5 model was applied to quarterly data of 1990:Q1-2012:Q4 estimating the impulse response functions, variance decomposition and Granger-causality tests. The findings allow for a conclusion that oil significantly affects the exchange rate and an inverse link between oil and GDP exists. A unidirectional relation is found where oil Granger-causes the exchange rate and GDP Granger-causes oil in South Africa.

This study analyses and investigates the impact of crude oil price vitality on unemployment in South Africa. This is done by firstly surveying theoretical and empirical literature on the crude oil price-unemployment relationship before relating it to South Africa. Secondly, crude oil and unemployment trends with their causes are overviewed. The study employs a Johansen co-integration technique based on VAR to model unemployment against crude oil prices, real effective exchange rate, real interest rates and real gross domestic product. Using quarterly data for the period 1990-2010, econometric results show that crude oil prices are positively related to unemployment in the long run while the opposite is true in the short run. Parameter estimates and variables are statistically significant; hence there are also policy recommendations which are related to both empirical and theoretical literature. Lastly, impulse response functions show that unemployment returns to equilibrium in the long run when crude oil price changes whereas real interest rates followed by crude oil prices explain most of unemployment changes compared to other variables in the long run.