Thesis (M.Phil.)--Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, 2007. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 48-49). Also available in electronic version.

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This dissertation treats two different themes. The first, addressed in Chapter 1, regards the pricing of interest rate swaps. The second, studied in the remaining two chapters, regards the implications of monetary policy for the term structure of interest rates.The pricing of interest rate swaps An interest rate swap is an agreement between two parties to exchange fix for floating interest rate payments for a certain period of time. Floating rate payments are made at a floating-rate index, e.g. the three-month interbank rate, while the fixed rate payment, the swap rate, is determined on the market. The swap rate may include a compensation for credit risk depending on the counterparty's credit quality, but in the standard agreement there is no exchange of principal, only interest is transacted, and this effectively reduces concerns about credit risk. The swap spread for a given maturity is the difference between the swap rate and the risk-free rate, measured as the yield on a government bond with similar cash flows. If the standard swap agreement entails negligible credit risk one might expect swap spreads to be low and stable, but market swap spreads vary over time. There are periods when swap spreads are low in accordance with the general theory, but there are also periods when swap spreads reach levels that seem high.The first chapter of this dissertation examines a setting where a positive swap spread arises as part of an equilibrium in a perfectly competitive capital market. The model is one of insurance under adverse selection. A firm that seeks debt financing can insure itself against interest rate risk either by borrowing long-term or by borrowing short-term and entering a pay fix - receive float interest rate swap. The latter alternative allows for a partial hedge as the firm can choose to swap only a fraction of the nominal amount. In this setting, if firms' credit quality and interest rate risk tolerance are correlated creditors can use the pricing of interest rate swaps as a screening device. A low-risk firm, being a firm with favorable private information, selects short-term borrowing and partial insurance. A high-risk firm, being a firm with less favorable prospects, is by assumption also less risk tolerant. It therefore has a higher demand for insurance and the equilibrium swap spread is set such that the high-risk firm finds it more beneficial to borrow long-term at a cost that exceeds the expected cost from short-term financing, but that provides a full insurance to interest rate risk. Monetary policy and the term structure of interest rates Taken separately monetary policy and term structure modeling are two well-established research areas each comprising a substantial amount of research. But relatively few attempts have been made to integrate the two. The last two chapters of this dissertation take the view that the conduct of monetary policy is an essential element in the determination of the term structure of interest rates, and that explicitly considering the role of amonetary authority in the analysis has a potential of enhancing our understanding of term structure dynamics, and its relation to macro-economic fundamentals in particular. This approach to the term structure is supported by the fact that the analytical framework developed in the literature on optimal monetary policy translates conveniently into a setting well suited for term structure analysis. Chapter 2 makes the point in the simplest setting. A standard model of optimal monetary policy is reformulated in continuous time. Combined with a parameterized form for the market price of risk this produces a standard term structure model with well-known characteristics. This model is estimated on US data for the period 1987 - 2002, treating state variables as latent factors of the term structure. The parameters that are estimated comprise parameters describing the monetary transmission mechanism, parameters describing the monetary authority's preferences and parameters describing the market price of risk. Our estimation technique differs from comparable estimations in the monetary policy literature as these typically take state variables to be directly observable measures of macro-economic aggregates. The results using term structure data are both similar and different to previous findings. The main difference when using term structure data is that the central bank's estimated policy is more aggressive, i.e. more responsive to changes in the underlying state variables.Chapter 3 is devoted to the zero bound on nominal interest rates. While the zero bound is well recognized in the literature on term structure modeling, not much has been said about term structure dynamics under the special circumstance that the short rate is close to zero. I find the optimal monetary policy approach to be particularly well suited for this analysis. The chapter studies a continuous time reduced form version of the monetary transmission mechanism. The monetary authority's optimization problem is formed according to two specifications, interest rate stabilization and interest rate smoothing. For the former the optimization problem is solved analytically, while numerical procedures are adopted forthe latter. The chapter then turns to study implications for the term structure under risk-neutrality. Term structure equations are solved numerically and implications for the term structure are discussed. Data for a low-interest rate country like Japan for 1996 - 2003 exhibits s-shaped yield curves and yield volatility curves. This shape is found to be consistent with a smoothing objective for the short rate. / <p>Diss. Stockholm : Handelshögskolan, 2004</p>

This thesis is made of two parts. Part I (Chapter 1 to 3) focuses on the ethical aspects of the current challenges in microfinance. Chapter 1 addresses the question of the place and importance of credit in development policies, through the debate on the right to credit. Chapter 2 and 3 then question the fairness of the interest rates charged by the microfinance institutions. Chapter 2 analyzes whether the fairness criteria depend on more basic principles of justice, such as Rawls’ principles described in A Theory of Justice (Rawsl, 1976). Chapter 3 then reviews some of the implicit and explicit definitions of fair interest rates and proposes an original methodology, with David Gauthiers’ contractuarian theory. It determines what a fair interest rate would be when lending to the poor. Based on the results of the two first chapters, Part II (Chapter 4 to 6) focuses on the role of donors in microfinance. Chapters 4 and 5 use two original databases, of 67 and 100 MFIs respectively to study the impact of subsidies on the MFIs’ management, through their rating evaluation (Chapter 4) and MFIs’ performance and management decisions (Chapter 5). Chapter 4 will analyze the relationship between the quality of management, as rated by a specialized agency, and the amount of subsidies. Chapter 5 will study pricing policy, the clientele and the potential moral hazard of subsidized institutions. Concluding this analysis, Chapter 6 gives some guidelines on the use of donor subsidies, especially in their interaction with the new private commercial actors, such as investment funds.

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This study set out to investigate the relationship between returns in the residential property markets and two key economic variables of output and interest rates. The main focus was on the short-term rates path and how it is influenced by the Taylor rule fundamentals and in turn, its effect on the returns in the property markets within the developing countries of South Africa, Bulgaria, Lithuania and Czech Republic. A secondary focus was on building a model that can be further developed into a full forecasting model of returns in the residential property markets. Output was found to be a strong driver of returns in the residential property markets across all four countries. Real changes in the economic activity feed into the residential property markets and drives returns. Output can be incorporated into a forecasting framework for returns in the residential property markets within these countries The short-term rate paths within the countries studied were found to be consistent with the Taylor rule but with heavy short run deviations from the rule. Short-term rates deviated from the rule in the short run, but showed a tendency to revert to the rule in subsequent periods. Returns and prices in the property markets were driven by the short-term rates only in two of the emerging markets. For these countries, this link between rate and returns mean there was also a link between monetary policy and returns in the property sector. Similar to the Taylor rule process, property returns in the two emerging markets were found to have short run deviations which could not be explained by interest rates and output. For the purposes of building a fully fledged forecasting model, this model must be expanded to include other explanatory factors. Adding the risk premium as an explanatory variable could be the starting point.

There are many functions of the financial system, with the basic function of transferring loanable funds from lender to borrowers (Rose et al, 1995). This financial transaction can be carried out directly or semi directly between lenders and borrowers. The shortcomings of direct and semi direct financing have opened doors for a third method—financial intermediation, which is done by financial intermediaries. Commercial bank is the classic example of financial intermediary at work. To achieve the goal of owners’ wealth maximization, banks should manage their assets, liabilities, and capital efficiently. In doing this, the bank should be conscious of the gap or spread between the interest income and the interest expenses paid, which is called net interest income (NII). Net interest income is a major part of banks’ profit, this is basically why the financial intermediaries try to offer lowest returns to savers and lend funds to borrowers at the highest possible interest rates. It is measured as net interest margin (NIM), which is NII divided by the average earning assets. This study examines the interest rate sensitivity of commercial banks’ interest profitability (Net Interest Margin) and net worth at the theoretical level and attempt to measure empirically the extent to which the interest profitability and net worth of commercial banks have been affected during the period of changing interest rates between 2001 and 2010. It as well measures the extent to which the factors that determine interest rate movement affect interest rate and which of the factors has more effect on interest rate. The measure of profitability captures the essence of lend-long borrow-short without directly including other determinants of bank income, such as loan loss and loan volume, which may be correlated with interest rates. It is also important to note that NIM is not a measure of total banks’ profits since it does not include non-interest income and expenses. A software package stata 10.0 was used to conduct the hypothesis testing, trend, and correlation analysis. The sampled banks are fourteen commercial banks and one investment bank in South Africa. The sampled banks were later divided into two groups (big and small), based on their assets size as at the year-end 2010. There are five (5) big banks with asset size of more than R100 billion and ten (10) small banks with asset size of less than R100 billion iii as at the year-end 2010. Analysis was further carried out separately on both the big and small banks to see the effect of interest rate fluctuations on them. Data required by the model was obtained from annual financial statements of the sampled banks for the period of ten years. It was found that fluctuations on interest rate (repo rate) affect the profit of commercial banks, but this effect is huge on small banks than the big banks. As the repo rate increases, the profit of commercial banks increases. Such effect of repo rate on profit of commercial banks was found to be statistically significant. It was also found that interest rate changes as well affect the net worth of commercial banks. The macroeconomic factors the determine the interest rates do not have direct effect on the banks’ profit, but have significant effect on the banks’ net worth, especially that of the small banks. As the rate of inflation, the rate of money supply, and uncertainty increase, the net worth of the small commercial banks in South Africa also increase. It could be advised that to maximize owners’ equity, South African commercial banks (big and small) should concentrate more on forecasting and controlling the determinants of the interest rates, rather than the interest rates themselves. It was also found that among the internal factors affecting profit and net worth of commercial banks, the liquidity ratio is most significant relative to capital ratio, competition, and non-performing loan.

Thesis submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Management in Finance and Investments in the Faculty of Commerce, Law and Management Wits Business School at the University of the Witwatersrand February 2017 / For developed economies, it has been shown that the slope of the yield curve is a good indicator of the future path of real output and inflation. This paper investigates the predictive abilities of the yield curve slope for domestic growth and inflation in emerging market economies. Given the sovereign risk premia in these economies, it also assesses whether adding the sovereign risk spread to the yield curve spread improves the predictive content of the yield curve. It finds that the yield curve can predict real output at both the short and long forecasting horizons in emerging economies, the extent of which differs across countries. It also finds that the predictive performance for inflation is weaker than that of output growth, especially in the shorter forecasting horizons, and that the sovereign risk spread has additional predictive content for growth and inflation. This suggests that market participants and monetary policy makers in these economies should supplement their forecasting models with information contained in the yield curve to forecast domestic growth and inflation. / MT2017

Wong Pak Kin. / Year shown on spine: 1997. / Thesis (M.Phil.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 1996. / Includes bibliograpical references. / Abstract --- p.i / Acknowledgment --- p.iii / Chapter Chapter I --- Introduction --- p.1 / Chapter Chapter II --- Literature Review --- p.6 / Chapter Chapter III --- Markets and Instruments / Chapter 3.1 --- International Money Markets --- p.15 / Chapter 3.1.1 --- Euro-deposit Market --- p.17 / Chapter 3.2 --- International Bond Markets --- p.20 / Chapter Chapter IV --- Preliminary Analysis of Data --- p.24 / Chapter 4.1 --- Data --- p.24 / Chapter 4.2 --- Descriptive Statistic Of Data Used In This Study --- p.29 / Chapter Chapter V --- Research Methodology / Chapter 5.1 --- Unit Root --- p.33 / Chapter 5.2 --- Cointegration and Error Correction Model --- p.37 / Chapter 5.2.1 --- Cointegration Using Engle and Granger Methodology --- p.39 / Chapter 5.2.2 --- Cointegration Using Johansen Methodology --- p.42 / Chapter Chapter VI --- Empirical Results / Chapter 6.1 --- Testing for Unit Root --- p.47 / Chapter 6.1.1 --- Short-term Interest Rates --- p.47 / Chapter 6.1.2 --- Long-term Interest Rates --- p.48 / Chapter 6.2 --- Testing for Cash-Futures Relationship --- p.54 / Chapter 6.3 --- Multivariate tests for Cointegration and VECM --- p.59 / Chapter 6.3.1 --- Cointegration in the International Money Markets --- p.63 / Chapter 6.3.2 --- Cointegration in the Interest Rate Futures Markets --- p.67 / Chapter 6.3.3 --- Cointegration in the International Bond Markets --- p.71 / Chapter 6.3.4 --- Cointegration in the Bond Futures Markets --- p.75 / Chapter Chapter VII --- Concluding Comment --- p.91 / Reference / Appendix

The credit market is an important subject in today’s macroeconomic world. Prior to the introduction of the credit market, traditional models only included the goods market and money market to form the IS-LM model. Under this IS-LM model, a change in money supply would have a known effect, such as a monetary expansion policy will result in a drop in the bond rate because the IS curve will remain constant. However, many previous studies did not show this effect, but instead the opposite; those that did show this effect, the magnitude of the shift was different than a traditional IS-LM model. Once the credit market is introduced into the IS-LM model, both the goods market (IS curve) and the money market (LM curve) will shift, resulting in an undetermined change in bond rate, and will also introduce the loan rate, which also shows an undetermined change. Under this model, when a monetary expansionary policy is in effect, it is possible that the bond rate could decrease, increase, or remain constant. This thesis will determine how the credit channel operates in Taiwan, using quarterly data from 1992Q1 to 2009Q4. The final result shows that under this new model, the credit channel in Taiwan does not necessarily follow the previously-known theory.