Kenneth Waltz's seminal work Theory of international politics (1979) conceptualizes international relations as a complex system in which the structure of the system and the interacting units (sovereign states) that comprise it are mutually affecting. Nevertheless, Waltz seeks to develop a nomothetic theory in which the structure of the international political system is isolated as an independent variable, state behaviour being the dependent variable. Waltz's explanatory strategy is therefore characterized by a deep tension: he treats structure as an independent variable whilst also arguing that structure and units are mutually affecting. Consequently, his systemic theory only generates partial explanations: it indicates how structure affects behaviour, but not how structure interacts with other variables to produce specific behavioural outcomes. This thesis draws on Waltz's theoretical writings, on Waltz's applications of his theory to empirical subjects in international relations (superpower relations during the Cold War, Soviet socialization into international society, and NATO's role after the Cold War), and on a wide range of theoretical literature. It explores the implications of the tension in Waltz's approach for explanatory theory in International Relations. It shows that Waltz's theory cannot ground many of his substantive arguments, that realists who attempt to improve Waltz's theory misunderstand the problems Waltz encounters, and that constructivists are unable to offer causal generalizations about complex systems. It concludes that explanatory theory in International Relations is currently poorly equipped to address complex systems in which structure and units are mutually affecting.

Typescript. / Bibliography: leaves [280]-294. / xiv, 294 l Tables

One of the major problems encountered in assessment of interactions between states over a period of time embodying major changes in foreign policy relations is the lack of comparative analysis. Relatively little attention has been focused on the development of a comprehensive relational concept which would permit longitudinal and comparative analysis of nonroutinized foreign policy relations. The emphasis of most studies has been on investigating a few specific major events from a variety of alternative approaches often relying on a single indicator for explanation of behavioral occurrences. This study seeks to go beyond these concerns by developing a more comprehensive relational concept from which to make comparative evaluations of alternative explanations to major changes in foreign policy relations. Major changes in foreign policy relations are identified between subsystem members and hegemons in Eastern Europe, Western Europe and Asia for the period 1954 to 1970. In order to ascertain the occurrence and direction of major changes in relations, the concept of distance has been operationalized on the basis of five behavioral indicators. These indicators include measures of trade,diplomatic contacts, United Nations voting behavior, conflict event/interactions, and cooperative event/interactions. Eleven cases of major change both toward and away from the hegemon in Eastern Europe, Western Europe and Asia have been selected from the traditional foreign policy literature for validation of the measurements of distance change. The distance change measurements utilized in this research are able to identify the occurrence, direction and intensity of the major foreign policy changes between subsystem members and their hegemons as described in the traditional literature. An analysis of procedural requirements for distance change identifies 181 cases of major or dramatic changes across the three subsystems for the 1954 to 1970 time period. Two systems level relationships have also been tested to ascertain the impact of differing conditions in the international system on the direction and occurrence of distance change. Because of the absence of parametric data, Kendall's tau correlation coefficient has been selected to measure the relationship between distance change and systemic conditions. Consistently low correlations are indicated for the thesis that the level of conflict in the international system influences the direction of distance changes during the period 1954- to 1970. Little correlational relationship is also found between distance change and the level of Sino-Soviet conflict in the Eastern European and Asian subsystems for the 1963 to 1970 time period. The second set of systemic relationships tested concerns the effect of the level of conflict in differing "states" of the system (i.e., the bipolar and the multipolar periods) on distance change. The correlational analysis utilizing these time periods finds little support for the hypothesized relationship between distance change and level of systemic conflict in the Eastern European and Western European subsystems during the bipolar period from 1954 to 1962. The strongest correlational relationships between distance change and level of system conflict are indicated for the Soviet Union and the United States in the multipolar period (i.e., 1963 to 1970). Difference in the occurrence and direction of distance change relationships between subsystems and hegemons suggests that an intervening variable, degree of hegemonic control, may influence the likelihood and direction of major foreign policy changes by subsystem members. A comparative analysis of a series of middle range theories which take into consideration subsystem structural relations with the hegemon and variations in time periods may reveal more satisfactory explanations of change in foreign policy distance.

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Typescript. / Bibliography: leaves [127]-134. / x, 134 l illus., tables

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Typescript. / Bibliography: leaves [241]-249. / Microfiche. / xi, 249 leaves ill

Typescript. / Bibliography: leaves [102]-110. / vii, 191 l illus., tables

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