This thesis examines the degree to which alternative funds deviate from their style-benchmark and how this is related to past performance and fund size, and how it impacts future risk and returns. Additionally the thesis examines how security selection and market timing skills differ across varying degrees of deviation from the benchmark. The thesis uses data for hedge funds, funds of funds, and CTA funds from the Center for International Securities and Derivatives Markets and employs fund???s tracking error relative to their style-benchmark to estimate the level of drift. The style-benchmarks used are the median return for all reporting funds that follow a particular style and funds are assigned a benchmark based on their self-reported style. First, this thesis documents statistically significant differences in the tracking errors of portfolios of funds with the highest tracking error versus funds with the lowest tracking error, implying that some managers drift from their self-reported style-benchmarks. Second, funds??? benchmark-inconsistency is less severe in the case of funds that have a regulatory obligation to disclose their performance, suggesting that the absence of regulation fosters an environment where managers can be more flexible with their investment approach. Third, the tendency to drift from the benchmark is most prevalent amongst funds with superior past performance as well as small funds. Fourth, future total portfolio risk increases as funds display more benchmarkinconsistency, suggesting that managers adopt riskier strategies as they attempt to enhance returns. Fifth, the thesis demonstrates that CTA funds that display drift from their benchmark produce higher absolute and relative returns in subsequent periods regardless of the direction of the general market. In contrast, the findings show for hedge funds and funds of funds, benchmark-inconsistent funds are likely to outperform in bull markets and underperform in bear markets. Finally, this thesis shows that more benchmark-consistent managers have better security selection skill. The main contribution of this thesis is in identifying the group of hedge funds, funds of funds, and CTA funds that are likely to deviate from their self-reported style-benchmark and the risk-return consequences of such deviations. The findings have implications for investors and regulators.

This thesis examines the degree to which alternative funds deviate from their style-benchmark and how this is related to past performance and fund size, and how it impacts future risk and returns. Additionally the thesis examines how security selection and market timing skills differ across varying degrees of deviation from the benchmark. The thesis uses data for hedge funds, funds of funds, and CTA funds from the Center for International Securities and Derivatives Markets and employs fund???s tracking error relative to their style-benchmark to estimate the level of drift. The style-benchmarks used are the median return for all reporting funds that follow a particular style and funds are assigned a benchmark based on their self-reported style. First, this thesis documents statistically significant differences in the tracking errors of portfolios of funds with the highest tracking error versus funds with the lowest tracking error, implying that some managers drift from their self-reported style-benchmarks. Second, funds??? benchmark-inconsistency is less severe in the case of funds that have a regulatory obligation to disclose their performance, suggesting that the absence of regulation fosters an environment where managers can be more flexible with their investment approach. Third, the tendency to drift from the benchmark is most prevalent amongst funds with superior past performance as well as small funds. Fourth, future total portfolio risk increases as funds display more benchmarkinconsistency, suggesting that managers adopt riskier strategies as they attempt to enhance returns. Fifth, the thesis demonstrates that CTA funds that display drift from their benchmark produce higher absolute and relative returns in subsequent periods regardless of the direction of the general market. In contrast, the findings show for hedge funds and funds of funds, benchmark-inconsistent funds are likely to outperform in bull markets and underperform in bear markets. Finally, this thesis shows that more benchmark-consistent managers have better security selection skill. The main contribution of this thesis is in identifying the group of hedge funds, funds of funds, and CTA funds that are likely to deviate from their self-reported style-benchmark and the risk-return consequences of such deviations. The findings have implications for investors and regulators.

Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of Texas at Austin, 2006. / Vita. Includes bibliographical references.

Not available / text

published_or_final_version / Statistics and Actuarial Science / Master / Master of Philosophy

The objective of this study is to evaluate the incremental information content of the Annual Report to Shareholders (ARS) and the 10-K. The study defines incremental information content as that set of data that has not been previously released to the public, which is contained in the ARS or 10-K, that gives rise to a resetting of equilibrium security prices. The results of the study have two implications. First, a finding of the existence of incremental information content in either the ARS or the 10-K provides evidence that investors may use the incremental data contained in either report to improve their estimates of firms' systematic risk components (Beta). Second, the results of the study may provide feedback value to accounting policymakers for evaluating their prior beliefs concerning the wealth effects of their accounting policy decisions. The study employs the familiar Market Model for generating unexpected returns. Further, the ordinary least squares regression method is used to derive regression parameters (including Beta) for the Market Model. This procedure has been accomplished for the 312 ARS and 159 10-K sample firms for reporting years ending in 1975, 1976 and 1977. The Quandt log-likelihood ratio and the Chow test have been employed to block the two study samples on the basis of stable regression parameters and to determine which weeks in the study period Beta-shifts have occurred for firms in the Non-Stationary ARS and 10-K groups. Two procedures have been employed in the study. The first procedure has been employed to determine if an unusual concentration of Beta-shifts has occurred in conjunction with the release of either report. The second procedure has been employed to detect the existence of any unusual unexpected return activity associated with the release of the ARS or the 10-K. Using the procedures described above, the study concludes that neither the release of the ARS nor the release of the 10-K affects investors' assessments of firms' systematic risk components or return distributions. Thus, the evidence the dissertation provides does not support an hypothesis that either report possesses incremental information content. Finally, the study concludes that the ARS and the 10-K fail to influence investors assessments and that policymakers must rely on their value judgments concerning their prior beliefs for the wealth effects of the ARS and 10-K.

This thesis presents three models of asset pricing involving non-competitive behavior and asymmetric information. In the first model, a risk averse investor with private information about dividends trades shares over an infinite time horizon with risk neutral uninformed agents. The informed investor trades strategically in equilibrium. The second model also involves an infinite time horizon, but all agents are risk averse and equally informed about dividends. Non-competitive behavior is exogenously specified; price takers trade shares with a strategic investor who accounts for the effects of her trades on the stock price. In this case, an endogenous information asymmetry arises in equilibrium. Closed form equilibria are derived for both models and implications for price dynamics are explored. While the first model constitutes a new extension of the multiperiod Kyle model of insider trading, the second model generates more interesting price dynamics. If the strategic investor manages a large mutual fund, significant risk premia and price volatility may arise in equilibrium. In fact, if mutual fund participation is sufficiently widespread, multiple equilibria may exist. The third model extends the multiperiod Kyle model to a case where the insider observes a noisy signal of the stock's terminal liquidation value. An equilibrium much like Kyle's is derived. Price tends toward value over time, and stock price volatility depends on both the drift and volatility of the insider's private signal. Like the Kyle model, the insider's trading activity leaves no detectable trace in trading volume, expected returns, or price volatility.

Investment in the South African economy is acutely needed for it to absorb the high numbers of unemployed and to grow the economy. The valuation of potential investments needs to capture all sources of revenue so that the investor has all possible information about the enterprise. The current methods of evaluating capital investment in the South African Chemical Industry continue to be based almost exclusively on Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methods. While these techniques are certainly useful, they are unable to capture all aspects of capital investment viability. A more recent valuation technique of regarding investments as options can substantially change the decision making process about capital investment. Investment in the chemical industry can be viewed as a strategic initiative to develop the long term potential of the industry. This investment can also contribute to growth in other sectors of the economy. While these benefits are difficult to measure, the criteria of maximizing investor returns remain the cornerstone of any investment decision. Using the DCF methods and real options framework for analyzing capital investments, a proposed investment to manufacture the chemical resorcinol in South Africa will be analysed. This study will illustrate how the real options approach, developed in this study, can more fully capture the dynamic and strategic value of the investment project, than the DCF methods. / Thesis (MBA)-University of KwaZulu-Natal, 2006.

No description available.

This study intends to investigate the momentum effect, which states that shares which performed the best (worst) over the previous three to twelve months continue to perform well (poorly) over the subsequent three to twelve months. Evidence suggests that a strategy that buys previous winner shares and sells short past loser stocks can generate abnormal profitability of about 1 per cent per month (Jegadeesh and Titman, 1993). Although momentum payoffs tend to persist when share returns in international markets are employed (e. g., Griffin et al., 2003, Rouwenhorst, 1998), a significant number of studies have debated the potential explanation of the momentum effect without reaching a consensus. Using data from the London Stock Exchange from January 1975 to October 2001, this thesis investigates some factors that influence the magnitude of continuation gains that have not been previously identified. I examine the relationship between momentum profitability and the stock market trading mechanism and is motivated by recent changes to the trading systems that have taken place on the London Stock Exchange. Since 1975 the London stock market has employed three different trading systems: a floor based system, a computerised dealer system called SEAQ and the automated auction system SETS. I find that after the introduction of the computerised dealer system SEAQ momentum profits are higher than when the floor based system operated. I also document that companies trading on the SETS auction system display greater momentum profitability than shares trading on SEAQ. Results are robust to the use of different samples and alternative risk adjustments. I investigate the role of volatility in influencing momentum profits. Shares with high volatility display wide spread out returns and therefore, potential higher magnitude momentum profitability. Given that shares displayed higher volatility traded on the post-Big Bang period (Tonks and Webb, 1991) and on the SETS system (Chelley-Steeley, 2003), I examine whether the different levels of momentum profitability achieved in alternative stock market structures arises from volatility. I find that momentum profits are strongly influenced by volatility, but the finding that the organisation of a stock market influences the momentum profits holds even after considering differences in volatility. I examine whether the magnitude of momentum profitability varies following bull and bear markets. Momentum profits stem from the winner shares in bull markets and from the loser stocks in bear markets. I report that momentum profits are stronger following bear markets, showing a sign of mean reversion in the UK stock market. Overall, this study contradicts the model of Hong and Stein (1999) that the momentum effect arises from the gradual expansion of information among investors and the model of Daniel et al, (1998) that the momentum effect stems from the investors' overconfidence that increases following the arrival of confirming news. This study also indicates that a significant portion of momentum profits stem from the magnitude of volatility.