This thesis contains a discussion of four problems arising from the application of stochastic differential equations and real option theory to investment decision problems in a continuous-time framework. It is based on four papers written jointly with the author’s supervisor. In the first problem, we study an evolutionary stock market model in a continuous-time framework where uncertainty in dividends is produced by a single Wiener process. The model is an adaptation to a continuous-time framework of a discrete evolutionary stock market model developed by Evstigneev, Hens and Schenk-Hoppé (2006). We consider the case of fix-mix strategies and derive the stochastic differential equations which determine the evolution of the wealth processes of the various market players. The wealth dynamics for various initial set-ups of the market are simulated. In the second problem, we apply an entry-exit model in real option theory to study concessionary agreements between a private company and a state government to run a privatised business or project. The private company can choose the time to enter into the agreement and can also choose the time to exit the agreement if the project becomes unprofitable. An early termination of the agreement by the company might mean that it has to pay a penalty fee to the government. Optimal times for the company to enter and exit the agreement are calculated. The dynamics of the project are assumed to follow either a geometric mean reversion process or geometric Brownian motion. A comparative analysis is provided. Particular emphasis is given to the role of uncertainty and how uncertainty affects the average time that the concessionary agreement is active. The effect of uncertainty is studied by using Monte Carlo simulation. In the third problem, we study numerical methods for solving stochastic optimal control problems which are linear in the control. In particular, we investigate methods based on spline functions for solving the two-point boundary value problems that arise from the method of dynamic programming. In the general case, where only the value function and its first derivative are guaranteed to be continuous, piecewise quadratic polynomials are used in the solution. However, under certain conditions, the continuity of the second derivative is also guaranteed. In this case, piecewise cubic polynomials are used in the solution. We show how the computational time and memory requirements of the solution algorithm can be improved by effectively reducing the dimension of the problem. Numerical examples which demonstrate the effectiveness of our method are provided. Lastly, we study the situation where, by partial privatisation, a government gives a private company the opportunity to invest in a government-owned business. After payment of an initial instalment cost, the private company’s investments are assumed to be flexible within a range [0, k] while the investment in the business continues. We model the problem in a real option framework and use a geometric mean reversion process to describe the dynamics of the business. We use the method of dynamic programming to determine the optimal time for the private company to enter and pay the initial instalment cost as well as the optimal dynamic investment strategy that it follows afterwards. Since an analytic solution cannot be obtained for the dynamic programming equations, we use quadratic splines to obtain a numerical solution. Finally we determine the optimal degree of privatisation in our model from the perspective of the government.

This study investigates the causes and consequences of acquisitions primarily foreign acquisitions undertaken by UK publicly listed firms. Firm- and country-specific factors are found to influence the propensity to acquire and the location of the acquired subsidiary. Indicators of a firm's organisational experience, such as firm size, profitability, and its investment history, increase the probability that an acquisition (relative to no acquisition) is undertaken. Larger and more profitable firms are also more inclined to invest abroad (rather than at home), as are firms engaged in RandD activities. In choosing among foreign locations, an increase in country-specific uncertainty (proxied by exchange rate and stock market volatility) deters a firm from investing in that location. Likewise, at the firm level, uncertainty is found to discourage a firm from acquiring (relative to not acquiring), and to deter an acquirer from undertaking a foreign (relative to a domestic) acquisition. Based on changes in industry-adjusted profit levels, acquiring firms in general perform poorly after making large foreign acquisitions. However, examining profit variability reveals interestingly that firms more likely to experience a decline in profit levels are also more likely to enjoy a reduction in profit variability, and vice versa, which suggests that a risk-return tradeoff could be a consideration when acquisitions are undertaken. When acquisition performance is evaluated on the basis of a firm's share price response to its acquisition announcement, the event study shows no evidence of negative performance. Resolving this discrepancy between the two performance measures leads us to examine the reliability of the stock market as an indicator of acquisition outcomes. On the one hand the immediate stock market reaction has some ability to predict a firm's postacquisition performance, while on the other post-acquisition stock returns are shown to be not completely consistent with market efficiency.

This study used protocol analysis to identify key variables in the venture capital investment decision-making process. The study used a fictional business plan which was based on six actual business plans. This fictional business plan was presented to ten venture capitalists who were asked to review it to decide whether to interview the investee. The protocols obtained from these subjects were analyzed to determine patterns within the subjects' review. The sections of the business plan which were commonly reviewed first were the deal structure, the executive summary, and the management section. The management section was used by the greatest number of subjects. The market section was used the greatest number of times. The data were also organized by type of operators used in each subject's protocols. Information Search/Retrieval operators were most common, followed by Task Structuring/Set Goal operators. When classified into the four major categories of Task Structuring/Set Goal, Information Acquisition, Analytical/ Inferential, and Choice operators, Analytical/Inferential operators were used most frequently. Choice operators were least used. The phrases were analyzed by the relevant section in the business plan. The market received the greatest number of references, followed by references to the product and to management. However, when references to the income statement and balance sheet were combined as phrases relevant to the financial statements, the financial statements were referred to more frequently than the product or the people. The subjects appeared to use an unidentified choice program within which certain models could be identified as subroutines. The subjects used an elimination-by-aspects model to screen the business plan. If the business plan met the criteria within the elimination-by-aspects model of the subject, the subject used an additive/nonlinear model for the remainder of the review. The results of this study indicate that financial statements provide information important in the venture capital investment decision-making process. This finding is contrary to the advice usually given to potential venture capital investees.

By doing so, we contribute to the existing literature in at least the following aspects: / First, contrasted with Chakravarty (2001) which finds that cumulative price change is mainly caused by institutional investors, we document that, at least in the Chinese IPO market, it is the individual investors, rather than the institutions, that have the most dominant impact on the cumulative price change. This is consistent with the prediction of De Long et al. (1990a) and the fact that noise trader risks play an important role in Chinese stock market, which leaves the prices deviated from fundamental values and not arbitraged out. / Initial Public Offering (IPO) refers to the first sale of stocks by a company (called an issuer) to the public. Since the late 1960s high initial return, which is measured from the offer price to the first-day closing price, has become a hot topic. This phenomenon has been found in a range of countries, and in China the ratio is even much higher. / On top of that, we further investigate different types of individual investors by categorizing them according to their trading experiences. We find that those less experienced individuals tend to buy an IPO stock in a more impatient way, while investors who buy on the first non-hit day are more experienced. And waiting averagely 1.4 days can raise the return by more than 1.5% in 30 days. / Our research attempts to tackle the high initial return in China from the aspect of investor structure. First, we find empirical evidence that there are more sells than buys on the IPO day, and this demonstrates that flippers are responsible for the huge trading volume. Combining the identities of investors with the trading data, we also find that individual investors dominate the first day trading, in the sense that individuals, rather than institutions, contribute a larger part of the cumulative price change on the IPO day. / Our studies have many practical implications from several perspectives. First, analyzing the investor structure and their behavior during the IPO day can help us understand the characteristics of those investors who move the stock price. Second, our research can also help to know the different trading style of different kinds of investors. According to our research, investors maybe can design more favorable investment strategies. And for the regulators, our research can help them formulate more reasonable trading rules and regulations. / Second, existing literature show that more experienced investors tend to end up with better investment results, while our study builds a bridge between investor experiences and their decision making procedure. Our finding also contributes to the technical analysis literature, such as Lo, Mamaysky and Wang (2000), among others, in that we find experienced investors indeed tend to do more technical analysis and obtain better investment results. / Zhai, Weili. / Advisers: Jia He; Ying Foon Chow. / Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, Volume: 73-08(E), Section: A. / Thesis (Ph.D.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 2011. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 113-122). / Electronic reproduction. Hong Kong : Chinese University of Hong Kong, [2012] System requirements: Adobe Acrobat Reader. Available via World Wide Web. / Electronic reproduction. Ann Arbor, MI : ProQuest dissertations and theses, [200-] System requirements: Adobe Acrobat Reader. Available via World Wide Web. / Abstract also in Chinese.

Tsue, Wing Yeung. / Thesis (M.Phil.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 2008. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 94-100). / Abstracts in English and Chinese. / Abstract --- p.i / Acknowledgement --- p.vii / Chapter 1 --- Introduction --- p.1 / Chapter 2 --- Reinforcement Learning (RL) --- p.7 / Chapter 2.1 --- Objective of RL --- p.8 / Chapter 2.2 --- Algorithms in RL --- p.9 / Chapter 2.2.1 --- Dynamic Programming --- p.9 / Chapter 2.2.2 --- Monte Carlo Methods --- p.11 / Chapter 2.2.3 --- Temporal-Difference Learning and Q-Learning --- p.12 / Chapter 2.3 --- Example: Maze --- p.13 / Chapter 2.4 --- Artificial Neural Network to Approximate Q-Function --- p.14 / Chapter 2.5 --- Literatures on Trading a Single Asset by RL --- p.16 / Chapter 2.6 --- Literatures on Portfolio Management by RL --- p.19 / Chapter 2.7 --- Summary --- p.20 / Chapter 3 --- Portfolio Management (PM) --- p.21 / Chapter 3.1 --- Buy-and-Hold Strategy --- p.22 / Chapter 3.2 --- Mean-Variance Analysis --- p.23 / Chapter 3.3 --- Constant Rebalancing Algorithm --- p.24 / Chapter 3.4 --- Universal Portfolio Algorithm --- p.25 / Chapter 3.5 --- ANTI COR Algorithm --- p.26 / Chapter 4 --- PM on RL Traders --- p.30 / Chapter 4.1 --- Implementation of Single-Asset RL Traders --- p.32 / Chapter 4.1.1 --- State Formation --- p.32 / Chapter 4.1.2 --- Actions and Immediate Reward --- p.38 / Chapter 4.1.3 --- Update --- p.38 / Chapter 4.2 --- Experiments --- p.41 / Chapter 4.3 --- Discussion --- p.47 / Chapter 5 --- RL-Bascd Portfolio Management (RLPM) --- p.49 / Chapter 5.1 --- Overview --- p.52 / Chapter 5.2 --- Two-Asset RL System --- p.54 / Chapter 5.2.1 --- State Formation --- p.55 / Chapter 5.2.2 --- Action --- p.61 / Chapter 5.2.3 --- Update Rule --- p.64 / Chapter 5.3 --- Portfolio Construction --- p.67 / Chapter 5.4 --- Choice of Window Size w --- p.70 / Chapter 5.5 --- Empirical Results --- p.73 / Chapter 5.5.1 --- "Effect of Window Size w on 1 Layer of RLPMw, and 2 Layers of RLPMW" --- p.76 / Chapter 5.5.2 --- Comparing RLPM to Other Strategies --- p.80 / Chapter 5.5.3 --- Effect of Transaction Cost A on RLPMw --- p.83 / Chapter 6 --- Conclusion --- p.89 / Bibliography --- p.94

This dissertation focuses on sequential games of imperfect information. I study settings in which not only do agents face imperfect information in the traditional sense of not possessing all payoff-relevant information, but they also face uncertainty about their position of movement in the sequence. I have utilized this framework to study financial investment decisions by individuals, production decisions by firms, and implications on information aggregation in observational learning. In order to study production decisions by firms I utilize a Stackelberg oligopoly model with a stochastic consumer demand. In this setting firms do not know their position of movement, and as a result of the stochastic demand they cannot infer from the prevailing price if another firm has yet entered the market. I find that as a result of uncertainty firms produce a higher quantity than they otherwise would have, resulting in a more competitive outcome. In fact, as the number of firms in the market increases, with positional uncertainty the equilibrium quantity actually exceeds the perfectly competitive quantity. I then investigate the impact of positional uncertainty when agents must choose levels of investment in a financial asset. Investors receive a signal about the value of the asset but are not necessarily aware of their position in the sequence of investors. As a result, they are unsure to what extent the signal they receive represents profit-relevant information, or if the signal is “stale” in the sense that the information has been incorporated into the price by other investors. This results in more cautious levels of investment, and an asset price that does not represent the true underlying value. To study the behavioral aspects of financial investment, I introduce in this model a notion of confidence. While much work in the area of behavioral finance has studied the role of confidence over the accuracy of information, my interest is in confidence over the timing of information. I define an agent as overconfident if they believe they are more likely to have received the signal earlier than other agents, and are thus more likely to be early investors. The effect of overconfidence can overwhelm the cautious nature of positionally uncertain investors, even potentially leading to an overreaction to information. This effect can explain overvaluation of assets and volatility of prices in response to information. In a model of observational learning, limited information about the history of actions slows the integration of information. However, I show that in the limit, even in the presence of limited histories complete learning occurs. In the environment of limited access to historical information I introduce uncertainty over position of action. This uncertainty even further dampens the process of learning from a welfare standpoint, but as the number of agents grows large complete learning still obtains in the limit for all levels of uncertainty. The common finding in all these settings is that uncertainty about the order of action causes agents to be cautious about exploiting profitable opportunities. In the case of oligopoly this leads to more competitive outcomes, whereas in the cases of investment and social learning uncertainty leads to less effective information aggregation.

No abstract available. / Thesis (MBA)-University of Natal, Durban, 2003.

The Internet provides many sources of financial information that investors can use to help with investment decisions and in interpreting companies' accounting information. One source of information is Internet stock message boards such as those at Yahoo! Finance. This source allows for anonymous postings and information exchange. Despite the possibility of the information being incorrect many individuals visit these message boards. The purpose of this study is to investigate Internet stock message boards and address the primary question: From an individual investor perspective, do message boards, which contain accounting information, influence investment decisions? The question is addressed using psychology rumor literature and attitude theories. Message board postings are a type of rumor, since not all the information is verified and is usually intended to persuade a belief or influence a decision. Further, the messages may influence an investor by causing a change in attitude about the investment. Using an experiment, message board influence on an investment decision and attitude was tested. The results indicated that individuals that received negative message board postings did have a significantly higher change in investment amount as compared to a control group that did not receive any message postings. The positive message board group and the control group were not significantly different in their amount of investment change. The results of the study also show that message board postings influenced attitude, those that received negative (positive) postings had a negative (positive) attitude about the investment. It was further found that those with a negative (positive) attitude decreased (increased) their investment. Finally, contrary to expectations, investment experience did not lead to an individual being less influenced by message board postings. This study contributes to the accounting literature by investigating an additional source of Internet financial reporting that may or may not contain correct information. The SEC is concerned over the manipulative opportunities that are available within these message boards and many investors are exploring these new sources of information instead of relying on traditional accounting information. This study finds that negative postings have an influence on investment decision and possibly should be investigated as manipulative techniques.

One approach to risk in investment evaluation is to discount expected cash flows with a single risk-adjusted discount rate. When emphasis is placed on total (as opposed to systematic) risk there are no a priori criteria guiding the proper selection of' the risk-adjusted discount rate. It is unlikely that a single rate will capture the risk differences between the investment alternatives considered. This study evaluates risk-adjusted discount rates in the context of stand-level investment decisions. The investment setting is a non-diversified risk-averse individual facing mutually exclusive opportunities in forage hay, pine plantation, and mixed pine-hardwood management. These opportunities contrast differences in cash flow, objectives, capital requirement, and presumably risk. Risk-adjusted discount rate bias was defined as the tendency to incorrectly identify a suboptimal alternative as being the most preferred. The correct ranking and valuation of alternatives was conducted using an expected utility approach to risk. The scope of the analysis was to assess to what degree, if any, does risk-adjusted discount rate bias occur in an actual stand-level investment setting. Therefore, the numerical results in the analysis pertain to a case study example and are not general enough to make definitive conclusions about the overall riskiness of forestry and hay investments. The potential for risk-adjusted discount rate bias was demonstrated in a hypothetical investment context. However, when risk was empirically estimated through simulation, risk-adjusted discount rate bias was less pronounced in the ranking of alternatives. Instead, the influential parameter was the risk-free discount rate. Based on an objective simulation of risk, which only accounted for historical variability in yields and prices, the estimated correct risk premiums in the discount rate were imperceptibly small, especially in the context of measurement error in specifying the risk-free discount rate. The implication is not that risk can be ignored, but that treating risk via the risk-adjusted discount rate approach is inadequate. More general approaches to risk are recommended, implying much research is still needed in this area. / Ph. D.

Chu Chun-fai, Carlin. / Thesis (M.Phil.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 2001. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 69-73). / Abstracts in English and Chinese. / Chapter Part I: --- INTRODUCTION --- p.1 / Chapter Part II: --- LITERATURE REVIEW --- p.4 / Chapter - --- Financial option-pricing theory / Chapter - --- Real option-pricing theory / Chapter - --- Real option-pricing theory in Management Information System Area / Chapter Part III: --- CASE BACKGROUND --- p.14 / Chapter - --- Case Background / Chapter - --- Availability of online banking services in Hong Kong / Chapter - --- Online banking investment in the Hong Kong Chinese Bank / Chapter Part IV: --- RESEARCH MODEL --- p.19 / Chapter - --- Research model / Chapter - --- Modelling of the optimal timing problem of HKCB / Chapter - --- Justification of geometric Brownian motion assumption for using Black-Scholes formula / Chapter Part V : --- DATA COLLECTION --- p.30 / Chapter Part VI: --- ANALYSIS RESULT --- p.35 / Chapter - --- Analysis result / Chapter - --- Sensitivity analysis on the selected parameters / Chapter - --- Suggested investment timing / Chapter Part VII: --- DISCUSSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS --- p.44 / Chapter - --- Result discussion / Chapter - --- Implications for researchers / Chapter - --- Implications for practitioners / Chapter Part VIII: --- LIMITATIONS AND CONTRIBUTIONS --- p.48 / Chapter - --- Limitation on data collection process / Chapter - --- Limitations on Black-Scholes model / Chapter - --- Contributions / APPENDIX / Appendix A -Limitation of traditional Discounted Cash Flow analysis --- p.51 / Appendix B -Banks services available to the customers --- p.54 / Appendix C -Sample path of a Geometric Brownian Motion --- p.56 / Appendix D -Discounted Cash Flows analysis of immediate entry of online banking investment --- p.57 / Appendix E -Black-Scholes formula and its interpretation for non-traded --- p.61 / Appendix F -Questionnaire for Online banking investment --- p.64 / Appendix G -Availability of online banking services in May 2001 --- p.67 / Appendix H -Sensitivity analysis on the number of initial usage --- p.68 / Appendix I -Reference List --- p.69